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Marking The 'Grand Bargain' To Market, One Year On
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Marking The 'Grand Bargain' To Market, One Year On

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Marking The 'Grand Bargain' To Market, One Year On

By Douglas Borthwick:In October, 2010, we authored a report titled "G20, The 'Grand Bargain' Behind the Scenes." The report was widely read, and became the basis for many of our calls within the FX space. Now one year has passed as we enter into the next G20 meeting, and we look back at the forecasts made in that report, and update our current views.

We stated that "Over the next five years we would expect USD/CNY to drop by on average 7.8% annually, adding up to about a 40% revaluation against the USD over the next five years. Similarly we would expect through the causal relationship a global drop in the USD's value by 40%." As the chart below shows, the regressed trend line in the USD/Index since China's move to 'flexibility' shows an annualized 7.86% annualized drop in the USD's value. The pace of USD weakness is right on target.

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