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'Horrific' Jobs Report Renews Fears of Double-Dip Recession
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'Horrific' Jobs Report Renews Fears of Double-Dip Recession

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'Horrific' Jobs Report Renews Fears of Double-Dip Recession

"In addition to the shock value...we need to seriously question whether a double dip is there. I would say it's back on the table," says one strategist.

More on CNBC...

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  #2 (permalink)
Fortitudo et Honor
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I heard someone on CNBC this morning say that the BLS reports have a confidence of 100k jobs.

If that's true, this number could be anywhere from 125k to -75k.

As a science/engineering background guy, I'm not sure I would lend any effort or emotion to a number or output that has a confidence interval that's almost 10 times the magnitude of the value.

Obviously, over large sampling sizes (n approaches infinity) we can remove out the noise and get better comparisons from month to month (this month's BLS vs. last months BLS) but still,

The fever and pitch of the reaction (to the extent the President felt obligated to speak) ranges from terrible to okay all within the same confidence interval.

I guess what I'm saying is that BLS should really seek to improve their accuracy.


Last edited by RM99; July 8th, 2011 at 05:35 PM.
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My real concern is that this is one reason the Bernank can use to keep printing money til he runs out of ink. If we get enough bad news over the coming months you can bet Benny will fire up those presses because that's all he knows how to do.

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Ron Paul is the only candidate that can SAVE the US of A...Why can't he be elected? Why are the cool-aid drinkers blind to the truth?

"Faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen." --- "Therefore, I Believe it and I will see it. And every day and in every way, I am healthier, wealthier, and wiser."
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Fortitudo et Honor
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rtrade View Post
Ron Paul is the only candidate that can SAVE the US of A...Why can't he be elected? Why are the cool-aid drinkers blind to the truth?

Truly.

Unfortunately, I think R.Paul is the most electible out of the Republican candidates and one of the least likely to make it out of the primaries.

Libertarians have much in common with conservatives, but unfortunately, some of the differences among them are the most deep seeded with respect to conservatives.

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Furthermore, there is no evidence in this report of any momentum for a turnaround. Jobs in employment services (temp help) fell by 9,500, the third consecutive decline. Average weekly hours edged down by 0.1 hour to 34.3. Hours in manufacturing fell by 0.3 hours. The average hourly wage fell slightly in June and has risen at just a 1.7 percent annual rate over the last three months. With wages not keeping pace with inflation and hours falling, workersí purchasing power and consumption are likely to lag.

On the whole, this is one of the most negative employment reports since the recovery began. It indicates that the economy has made no progress whatsoever in re-employing the people who lost their jobs in the downturn. Even more discouraging is the fact that there is no reason to expect anything to change for the better any time soon. The pace of job loss in the public sector is likely to accelerate, with no evidence of an offsetting pickup in the private sector.




Weak Job Growth Leads to Another Rise in Unemployment | Jobs Bytes

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