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Elliott Wave Theory and Patterns
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Elliott Wave Theory and Patterns

  #71 (permalink)
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aligator View Post
OK, here is a revised ES example. Obviously the 1408 (previous high) did not hold (so much for EWT).

@aligator

Is this a correct assumption of EW formation? or am I just drawing childish lines again

thx as always
R

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  #72 (permalink)
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Hey Richard, am stuck in a hotel, so I downloaded NT on my travel machine. I think this is what happened here (RTH only) - a wave projection top (in blue) around 30 - 32 was violated. New buying has come in. This now, theoretically becomes wave support. So, the first bounce that violated resistance became W1, W3 is quite clear, and potential W5 is between 52 - 58. Intraday reversal, on high volume, will show where that happens. Or footprint. In addition, if a short is initiated, traditional momentum indicators (MACD, MTP STF, RSI, Stoch) need to show a clear div. A break of support is needed first.

I am almost positive that good fib guys can use the W1 amplitude, the W3 amplitude and project the W5 - but I don't try this anymore as I have found I am not very good at it. I will tell you this W3 was 261.8% of W1, W5 should atleast be as big as W1 if not more.

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  #73 (permalink)
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@Deucalion-perfect didnt ask u bc I knew u were on vacation thx for reply and info on fibs I ll try it and see how it goes, im short too so watching closely ES

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@Deucalion

I am almost positive that good fib guys can use the W1 amplitude, the W3 amplitude and project the W5 - but I don't try this anymore as I have found I am not very good at it. I will tell you this W3 was 261.8% of W1, W5 should atleast be as big as W1 if not more.


if EW3=EW5 will be at least 59ish

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@Deucalion

I am almost positive that good fib guys can use the W1 amplitude, the W3 amplitude and project the W5 - but I don't try this anymore as I have found I am not very good at it. I will tell you this W3 was 261.8% of W1, W5 should atleast be as big as W1 if not more.


if EW3=EW5 will be at least 59ish

LOL.... technically and sensibly you drew it right! Ideally I like to catch W3 as this is the best one, and trying to catch W5 is dangerous, as it can end prematurely (in which case one misses it) or worse (try to short it when no other conditions are present) and get slammed. Having said that, it can be done. And I have noticed that I have caught several W5 tops this year. This always bothers me as it can lead to top picking, which is a nasty business and un professional.

But once one screws down risk and uses robust position sizing and risk control, it can be done (one must, must appreciate such a trade is high risk trade and be prepared to scratch it fast)

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  #76 (permalink)
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I would like to ask either Fat Tails or BM to change the title of this thread to "Elliot Wave - A Practical Approach" or something like that instead of "theory". EW gets a terrible rap because of the new age analysts (generally not traders) who attempt to fit every squiggle and every swing on a chart into some sort of EW pattern as if EW is present on every chart at every possible instant. I am sure that RN Elliot did not lay out his theory to be used in such a dogmatic manner. In that spirit, here is an attempt to break down the weekly USD in EWP (Elliot Wave Practical) style.

  • Between 2010/11, a powerful two leg move down carried DX from 89ish to 73ish.
  • A wave decision point was identified at this point. This DP was honored and price then targeted a potential bull to 83.
  • Price went from 73 to 83 in that ugly sequence from 2011 - 2013. It is very hard for me to fit a clean pattern in that bull move, there maybe some sequence in there, but I am not going to attempt one.
  • Now, here is my take - 83 is a EW-DP, if price honored this, it should go back to 73 and violate 73, the bearish macro pattern should then violate all time lows.
  • At the moment, however, weakness is being bought, and the DP at 83 is not holding, I therefore expect that the impulsive on the DX is bullish, which would imply a logical violation of 83 first then 88 (from 200/09).
  • 88 is powerful resistance - but keeping with common sense, I expect this to be a powerful wave up - with an eventual impulsive violation of 88 and at least 92 (maybe more)
  • I do not expect the commonly held assumption DX-ES negative correlation to hold, as price action indicates a positive correlation at this time.
  • As the ES is shown recently, an impulsive move is relentless, it is my belief that a true impulsive on DX has not shown its face it - but I am patient and quietly watching, sitting in the tall grass. We shall see how wrong I am in the coming years (for the record - I have been bullish USD for a while, but recent action on USD and ES in the face purported QE has added strength to my upside bias)
  • Price on DX has not lined up with public opinion, and whereas I have little credibility in saying that we are in Macro Wave 1 or beginning of Macro W3 on DX, it is my belief we have a long ways to go, and the surprise might end up being how powerful this DX up move might end up being. The monthly potential on DX is also below - a lot of folks might think this is out of the question. Is it?

There I said it, I may burn spectacularly for this

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Last edited by Deucalion; May 18th, 2013 at 10:37 PM. Reason: edited screencast bbcode
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The thread title is up to @Fat Tails since it is his thread.

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Deucalion View Post
I would like to ask either Fat Tails or BM to change the title of this thread to "Elliot Wave - A Practical Approach" or something like that instead of "theory".


@Deucalion: Thank you for posting and thank you for your suggestion. However, I think it is too late to change the title of the thread. The thread is around for 3 years, and if I change the title now, this will rather create confusion. Although I get your point, for "practical reasons" I would like the title to stay as it is.

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@Fat Tails

Curious if you every coded a 5 wave indicator, if so is it public?if so would you share?

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Rad4633 View Post
@Fat Tails

Curious if you every coded a 5 wave indicator, if so is it public?if so would you share?

What do you call a 5-wave indicator?

If you are referring to Elliot wave counts, I have not coded it. I do not believe in numbering waves.

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