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is it profitable or not
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is it profitable or not

  #1 (permalink)
knoxville tennessee usa
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: nijia trader
Broker/Data: A.M.P. I.Q. ....C.Q.G.
Favorite Futures: ym
 
Posts: 521 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 102 given, 249 received

is it profitable or not

reviews on this software have been mushy. if you take the basic set ups with all the rules fallowed to the T. is there a positive edge or not. would you be in the green after 500 trades. what would your trade report look like based on your experence with the software. based on my experence with other kinds of trading software ...i would say no ...but the software is not bashed much any where. any way thanks for taking the time and post....

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  #2 (permalink)
Bristol, UK
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: MTPredictor
Favorite Futures: US e-minis
 
Griff1's Avatar
 
Posts: 33 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 0 given, 44 received

Hi Forgiven,

Thanks for your question. Please remember that MTPredictor is not a "black box" System that has been designed to be followed blindly. This is because markets go in Cycles and as such should not be traded 100% of the time. We teach that users should only consider setups, when the larger degree picture is clear, and the setups are within the users risk profile, and that will be different for different users. I know readers here want set performance figures, but from my feedback from users over the last 17 years with MTPredictor is that end users have very different experiences with the software. Some do well, others do not. I suspect that this is true of many other approaches to the market.

We have to all remember that Trading is hard, a lot harder than a lot of vendors seem to suggest. From what I have seen over the last 30 years in the markets is that 95-97% of amateurs Traders loose money, and 95% of these are tying to use mechanical systems. Mechanical systems do work, and are used by the City for big Funds. but I think the problem is that too many small Traders are under capitalised and as such cannot take the inevitable draw downs in any system.

The same happens with MTPredictor, in that we do have a lot of people who take our 15-day trial who never get on with the software and as such don't do well, I think this is important to say because a lot of software vendors promise unlimited riches with little or no effort, and we at MTPredictor want to be honest with users - Trading is hard, a lot harder than most people would like and because of that very few amateurs ever make it to become successful.

Small Amateur Traders want big profits with limited draw downs and all with little effort. I am sorry to say this does not exist. As I said earlier, Trading is hard, a lot harder than most vendors say.

Lastly, one thing that we do suggest if users are looking at systems (not MTPredictor but any system) 100% of the time is to filter their trades with a moving average. ie they follow their setups 100% of the time but only take the trades when their system is above the moving average. This is what City Fund Manager do. I have not seen this mentioned on this Forum before (maybe I missed it on another thread), but this "tip" will help any mechanical system because it takes the users out of the system when it is in draw down, (and all systems have draw downs).

I hope this helps ?

Steve Griffiths
MTPredictor developer


Last edited by Griff1; January 7th, 2018 at 04:55 AM.
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  #3 (permalink)
knoxville tennessee usa
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: nijia trader
Broker/Data: A.M.P. I.Q. ....C.Q.G.
Favorite Futures: ym
 
Posts: 521 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 102 given, 249 received

what good is the trail ?


a 15 day trail would seem fair but from what i understand your code is locket . that stops you from running back test on the signals . is that not the case. with out any back or forward testing , how in the hell would you know if the signal has a edge or not ? play with it a year in sim .. or worse play with it with real money .. come on man !

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  #4 (permalink)
@ Germany
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Mirus Futures/Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: FDAX
 
Posts: 472 since Nov 2011
Thanks: 323 given, 397 received

Hello,

running a normal backtest isn't possible, because the signals aren't available as public data series. I've done a lot of tests (a few years back) with auto-detect the trade entries from the gui interface and running the trade calculations within an own backtest engine. But unfortunately without any stable results, but, due to the tests, i have a deep understanding of how the module works. I tried all kinds of filters including the equity curve filtering technique.

It's a good approach and it is still the best package i've seen in the market, but because i'm a system trader i haven't tried the manual appraoch yet. If i can't get any edge in many many backtests i have no solution for the plain manual trading (... and yes, i've watched a LOT of Steve videos). Years ago the partner "Matt" has done some studies with taking all setups with the common trade mangement rules - that looked not so bad. But the times have changed and i think the market is much tighter these days.

If anybody has an idea of an additional filter to qualify the MTP trade setups, let me know. Perhaps i can test these filter, if it looks promising to me.

Koepisch


forgiven View Post
a 15 day trail would seem fair but from what i understand your code is locket . that stops you from running back test on the signals . is that not the case. with out any back or forward testing , how in the hell would you know if the signal has a edge or not ? play with it a year in sim .. or worse play with it with real money .. come on man !


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  #5 (permalink)
Los Angels
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TradeStation
Favorite Futures: Emini ES
 
Posts: 60 since Aug 2018
Thanks: 61 given, 39 received


Griff1 View Post
Lastly, one thing that we do suggest if users are looking at systems (not MTPredictor but any system) 100% of the time is to filter their trades with a moving average. ie they follow their setups 100% of the time but only take the trades when their system is above the moving average. This is what City Fund Manager do. I have not seen this mentioned on this Forum before (maybe I missed it on another thread), but this "tip" will help any mechanical system because it takes the users out of the system when it is in draw down, (and all systems have draw downs).

Spot on! I'd rather be flat for 6 months than take the draw down.

A compounding system can 1)identify the begin inning of a draw down 2) stay flat (or reduce contracts) only tracking trades until the draw down is over 3) trade live after the system has already recovered and 4) compounds during equity cycles.

Does anyone else stay out, but keep track of the trades, when the system looses (or even after x number of positive trades)?

Is it hard to stay flat (or reduce contracts) for days, weeks, or months required to run a compounding system?

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  #6 (permalink)
knoxville tennessee usa
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: nijia trader
Broker/Data: A.M.P. I.Q. ....C.Q.G.
Favorite Futures: ym
 
Posts: 521 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 102 given, 249 received

filtering the trade signals

well if you can not back and forward test this concept i am not sure it matters. i would try to use a trend filter on much larger time frame charts, that is different from what his software is using. i would put the 8 day EMA on a daily and weekly charts. when price bars have closed above the averages on both charts and price is trading there as well in the RTH session. at that time i would back and forward test all the long signals the software is generating inter-daily reverse that for shorts. you could also use volume profile . when price is trading above value on the daily ,weekly,even 240min charts , back and forward test all the inter-day signals with the volume profile trend. floor pivots , same story . above center pivot on the weekly , daily. 240min.. you could even double up on these . must past the test with all of the above. however if you can not back test and forward test the software i disagree ...the software is not worth a damn .

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  #7 (permalink)
knoxville tennessee usa
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: nijia trader
Broker/Data: A.M.P. I.Q. ....C.Q.G.
Favorite Futures: ym
 
Posts: 521 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 102 given, 249 received

Steves concept... here it is figure it out

seend me 2500 hundred. 3% of the folks buying it, can do that after F-ING with it for 2 years. you could do a lot better job figuring it out if you could use bloodhound on it. blackbird can do a better job with trade execution and management that you can if you could use it.

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  #8 (permalink)
Bristol, UK
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: MTPredictor
Favorite Futures: US e-minis
 
Griff1's Avatar
 
Posts: 33 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 0 given, 44 received

Hi Forgiven,

Thanks for your post.

Initially we suggest that people who are interested in MTPredictor attend our free training webinars. These are free and people can attend these for as long as they like before deciding whether (or not) they would like to purchase our 15-day trial. The 15-day trial then only costs $95. During this time, they can see for themselves the MTPredictor software in action.

Please remember that because MTPredictor is not a “Black Box” system (that has been designed to be used 100% of the time), it cannot be back tested using products like Bloodhound. This is not the way MTPredictor has been designed, it is a discretionary set of trading tools, not a 100% mechanical system. As such different people will use the tools in the software in different ways. Some of our Customers just look for VS setups, some just use our DP support/resistance areas, some use our Position Sizing. The point is that no two Customers will use MTPredictor in the same way.

I do understand that a lot of people on this Forum are looking for 100% mechanical systems, or ones that can be back tested using algorithms. MTPredictor does not fall into that category, as such I would suggest that MTPredictor is not suited for them, so they are best looking for a different Trading approach, that better suites their needs.

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