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If you've ever wondered about the degree of correlation between the ES and the FDAX, consider these two trades (the FDAX trade being a Holy Grail in Steve Griffiths excellent terminology). Both set up and terminated at almost exactly the same time.
Since I wasn't sure of how correlated they were before I took the trades I halved my position on each, but it still worked out fine.
If you've ever wondered about the degree of correlation between the ES and the FDAX, consider these two trades (the FDAX trade being a Holy Grail in Steve Griffiths excellent terminology). Both set up and terminated at almost exactly the same time.
The FDAX was also wave 5 up into a DP
Since I wasn't sure of how correlated they were before I took the trades I halved my position on each, but it still worked out fine.
I have noticed correlations between markets where time zones overlap. It seems there is a daily global trend. If you look at the Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong) that is a precursor to Europe. The last hour of the Hang Seng matches up with how the Dax moves; Then about lunchtime in Europe it begins to move in sequence with America as it starts its trading day.
As for continuation of patterns from one trading day to the next I suspect you've done more work on that than me. I would wonder about the higher timeframes, 1 hour, 1 day and what trend they are in. The typical setup for a Holy Grail setup requires a pullback in price, that rebounds off the 15 min dp which signals the validity of the trend. It seems to me that if you had a move in price that was straight up or down then you might not have the pullback to the 15 min dp to setup the trade.
Please feel free to note any insights or comments you have.
This is an example trade from the 9th October 2012 on the Dax futures contract FDAX12-12
Disclosure: I have not traded any of these setups, I found them after looking through the charts day by day. I have not traded them because my Father had a stroke in August; therefore my attention has devoted to him and the wider family. I am happy to say he is making progress and is regaining his strength. Looking through the charts was something I found to do during my spare time.
Draw in the decision point on the chart. This highlights ahead of time the likely areas where the price may find support or resistance. If the price does find support or resistance on the same timeframe where you drew the decision point then we may have found a place where the market will now trend.
We are expecting the market to move towards wave 1 in 5 minor waves, correct in 3 waves (an abc pattern) then move forward in 5 waves for wave 3; The strongest and longest wave. Exiting the trade can be done at the wave 3 target or using the Average True Range stop (atr) which is the dotted line. I use the atr when the strength band line on the mtp stf indicator is close or beyond the histogram. Exiting the trade at the wave 3 target or atr is matter of choice and up to each person. Choose the method you are comfortable with.
I have included multiple timeframes to highlight the different opportunities that occur, 15 mins to set the larger degree trend and then 2, 3 and 5 mins. If a timeframe is missing from my examples it is because there was no trade signal on that timeframe.
The 15 min dp signals there is potential support at the price levels shown on the chart. During the 9th October price reacts to this potential level. A decision point indicates an area where prices may choose to carry on going on down from the high on the 5th or they may stop and move back up. If the price pattern looks good and fits the model for a Holy Grail trade we want to look for trades that are long signals.
On the 2 min chart there were 2 trades, one at 10.28 and another at 11.36.
The 1st trade exits at the target for 7.5R or 6.5R if using the atr stop.
The 2nd trade exits at the target for 6.6R or 5.6R if using the atr stop.
On the 3 min chart there is 1 trade at 11.36
That exits at 8R at the target or 5.9 if using the atr stop.
Depending on your trading style you need to decide which trades you might have entered, how you would raised your stop, whether you would exited at the target or the atr stop. Would you have waited for the wave 3 target?
You could have used the target on the 3 min chart as a guide to wring out more profit on the 2 min chart. If you use this approach then keep it consistent across your trading. Keeping with the atr stop may be the easier choice.
It's worth noting how much time you would have to enter a trade before it moves beyond the entry price. Some trades linger around and some move quickly.
This is a trade from the 26th October. There are 2 losing trades on the 2 min chart and 1 winning trade on the 5 min chart. That's two trading days for this approach in this market for one month, the 9th and the 26th. This setup is for a trader who is happy to wait. It's about looking for a reaction from major pivot swings, which take time to unfold. Once they do, they can provide the impetus for a strong move and hopefully, a large reward for your risk.
October's stats are
2 min
4 trades, 50% winners.
Exit at ATR is a total of 10.1R
Exit at target is a total of 12.1R
3 min
1 trade, 100% win
Exit at ATR is 5.9R
Exit at target is 8
5 min
1 trade, 100% win
Exit at ATR is 4.9R
Exit at target is 2.1R
In my opinion exiting the trade with an ATR stop increases your profits, over time, more than exiting at target. Do whatever feels comfortable to you and keep it consistent.
Have you tried to combine the concept of supply/demand levels with the MT Predictor setups ?
I don't own the software but have watched all of the freely available videos on youtube showing the MT Predictor setups and have realized that the reliability of the DP levels and the wave counts can be greatly enhanced by adding supply /demand levels to the mix. I'm reffering to the levels as per Sam Seiden.
I have not tried this particular approach with the setups as I was not aware of Sam Seiden or his training. I await your ES example.
This is a trade from the 1st November. A fine example of a losing trade. The setup looked good, but the market extended past the signal resulting in a loss.
This looks great, finally someone has found the REAL Holy Grail.
No information yet on the underlying logic behind these MTP indicators, but since this is Holy, I guess we just need to take it on faith that they tap into some hidden truth.
Just like the impeccable credibility of my newspapers.
Where do I go to place my order?
Regards,
Rupert
"If we don't loosen up some money, this sucker is going down." -GW Bush, 2008
“Lack of proof that something is true does not prove that it is not true - when you want to believe.” -Humpty Dumpty, 2014
“The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.” Prof. Albert Bartlett
It is just the name of a setup which the author of MTP likes and illustrates (among other places) in the MTP introduction document https://www.mtpredictor.com/data/mtpredic/uploads/pdf/MTPIntro2.pdf. And it is not magic, just a nice setup. You still have to do your own analysis...
Here's the chart showing what I mean by combining supply/demand zones with fibs ( since that's what MT Predictor is all about, appart from the elliot waves).
Notice the supply zone drawn in from October. This zone get's confirmation by two 127% fib extensions from prior swing points.
I believe the DP points are nothing else but 127% fib extensions -correct me if I'm wrong.
Interestingly, in this youtube video, MT Predictor had marked the very same level ( around 1444) many days in advance.
