I know I'm posting 1 min charts in this sequence. However I try stick to the 2 and 3 min to make decisions. On this exit I got way too close to the data - it is an error that this time gained me .7R but should have been -.2 for commissions at break even. I'll try to get in the habit of posting more, but darn, it's quite clumsy.
The US indexes had the most orderly sell off I've seen in a long time. Tough to pick the top of the day with no pattern or obvious volume. No ABC rallies to get in. The straight line as the ES declined through old 60min DP resistance. Then orderly choppiness down to the next level and the behavior of the price in and around the DP levels had me expecting a full down day. The YM was a mirror image. I'll post pic of what I was looking at for ES. If any other MTP guys want to comment on what they were seeing and what they were looking for in terms of milestones, etc, I'd be interested as these types of days are the ones that really can be trying for me. So new perspective would be welcome.
A big VSA spike did catch my eye on the 6B 3 min. I took just this one today and I had a couple changes of thought throughout the day as the price unfolded. MTP methods got me in and out and kept me on the right side of things today. This type of "Yes, this could be a holy grail" changing to "No, I gotta check my swing on this one" happens to me a lot.
Currently short TF on the 2 min looking for a potential 5R continuing from broken 60 min DP support. I'm going off confluence with the max wave 5 projection and higher timeframe support for a higher probability target. But I'd love the opportunity to trail this down to the 799 level. Currently it's got to get through some ABC pattern support. And the ES and NQ are in structure support while YM has hit 60min DP support. So I'm interpreting the intermarket picture as bearish because 3 of 4 markets have not come into 60 min DP support yet. Everything is moving sideways now through lunchtime, gr8.
Currently short and looking to run it down to 2740 if it lets me. ES was at 15m support, but was retesting it pre market, which is not a bullish indication to me. YM was in the middle of nowhere that I could find, so I take that as being mid trend, which was down. NQ also found support in the middle of nowhere and put in a V shaped bottom with a TS1 short on the 1 min. The only short of the 4 minis by my alert window. I took it. No current pattern or volume spike at a significant level that has made me believe a rally. In fact, it looks like an extended wave 3 possibility down. Locking in about 1R now to play for next 60min DP support. The thing that I like about this NQ chart is how the DP levels are describing the price action so far. I like when this happens because if the DP's have worked so far, it makes it much easier for me to believe that they will keep working in this sequence. ES and YM have zigzagged around their lower ATR, which has stretched down. So with YM closing two 3 min candles below it's last 15m DP support, and ES in the middle of nowhere I am looking for more down side.
I'm stopped out at 2747 for 7R on a really tall volume spike straight into the max wave 3 level and a few ticks past a structure low at 2745.25. YM still looks bearish to me.
Last edited by claybuddy; September 4th, 2012 at 11:03 AM.
Euro long after missing an entry earlier in the morning
Currently long looking for opposing DP resistance. Took an auto signal for 1.6R for an extended continuation move up, but overriding with higher timeframe analysis and target as the 5 wave pattern is terminating in the middle of nowhere, and the Wave 4 DP support is way back below the 60 min DP support.