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Volume Profile and MTPredictor
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Volume Profile and MTPredictor

  #11 (permalink)
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SisyphusStone View Post
Hi Chez,

I was interested in your post. I Started with mtp some years ago but was constantly frustrated by the number of times I would get taken out of a trade by a couple of ticks right after the signal. In the end I stopped using it as I just couldn't make it work for me. I then came across Wyckoff and that led to VSA. Understanding springs and upthrusts, particularly, as well as the Creek resistance and Ice support explained a lot! I keep meaning to go back and re-assess mtp armed with this additional knowledge as I am sure it would compliment it well.
Just thought I'd mention it in case you were unfamiliar with Wyckoff/VSA as you might like to explore that avenue. At the end of the day it's all about keeping it clean, simple and profitable!

Best
David

MTP has a couple of training videos that combine VSA with MTP, in a limited way. Uses the buying / selling climax. It looked interesting although I haven't tried it yet, but it'd be interesting to use it with the VSA tools, Upthrusts & Springs.

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  #12 (permalink)
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Deucalion View Post
LOL, so MTP seems just like the stone, condemned by the trading Gods, seemingly uphill?

I would hate to say that MTP does not work in these decimalized markets, because this year I have been sub standard all this year, but ironically, it has been MTP's much bigger wins that have kept me afloat. It helps to watch the volume around the DP zones. DP's played on high TF

And more or less, the volume and market structure will give clues to me whether a DP or automatic signal should even be considered. You said it yourself, MTP will signal several potent formations, so the idea is good, the trick is to identify how to stay in that idea without getting pipped out.

You can use limit orders near the ATRs, or a moving average or watch the volume to play it, something to refine the idea, thats all. I found using ATRs is a good way (but it might force you to stay out of the market a lot, as one misses alot of trades). So far, like I said amongst all the things I have tried, OF seems to show me promise. And I use NT addon.

MTP is the basis of my trading, and its such an elegant way of framing the market - like poetry. It is often wrong, but when its right, its beautiful. I will never forgo it, when its right, it makes my week or month in a single trade. So I can live with being 50% wrong.

If you are 50% wrong you are doing well, assuming you get a decent risk / reward

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  #13 (permalink)
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Deucalion View Post
Appreciate the time you have taken. CD seems indeed to pointed out a good div there. Unfortunately I have a conceptual issue with CD as a an arbitrary accumulation of volume, and the way it is constructed (despite Fulcrum's use of resting inventory...it works for him... different strokes for different folks I guess). It just doesn't seem to appeal to me.

Next is IRT, as little as I like Ninja, I like IRT even less. Your granularity is neat, but if you went a TF larger, like so.......you would see what I was seeing.....and we are so stretched, that a new breakout is hardly the most likely outcome. Trend strength is clearly flagging, and a new breakout will likely end in a DP anyway, I was simply playing the top end range for shorts on the smaller TF using OF to spot aggressive sellers, which was clearly evident today

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No worries!
Always horses for courses. CD certainly isn't the be-all and end-all, but it works well for me. I find it much more intuitive an simple than the OF charts. I also keep an eye on a composite volume profile.
IRT. Yep, it's a bit different and certainly takes a bit of getting used to, but it's really growing on me. The only reason I use NT7 is I like to trade off the chart, especially intra-day. It's just about OK as a charting package, tho' its renko and PnF functionality are about as useful as tits on a bull. Rather like IB's charting!

I agree the move is very stretched, but once the move is initiated it can keep going on low volume way into the realms of what we would rationally consider stretched. It wouldn't surprise me if this is an expanded flat B wave and the last 2 days have been absorption. I'll be watching for a potential spring tomorrow. Today was the first low-end close of the rally.

The weekly chart shows the big resistance band we've been in since Sept. and you could argue that last week's bar was a low volume spring of the Aug 2007 reaction low before the high. It also bounced of the dp from that low (I don't know if you've noticed it, and Steve has never mentioned it to my knowledge, but the prior dps often reverse role in the old saw, support becomes resistance and vice versa. I've often found they are responsible for price reversing between regular dps)

There was massive selling around the 1432 level so give then at least another 10pts before they are likely to start puking, but if they do we could get quite a powerful short-covering rally. The whole move down off the 1468 high has been difficult to frame, but from the 90m chart I think we may have had a 5-3-5 move up that has solidly taken out the main dp. My suspicion is that we have been working a 3 expanded flat and we potentially have another 5-3-5 to go. It would also provide a nice run up into month end and the closing of a lot of trading books for the year.
On the 15m chart the stf, while beyond the strong level looks to be backing off and so tomorrow could see a divergence with a price spike lower. - We'll see!

Time to roll away!

"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes the laws."
Mayer Amschel Rothschild (1744 -1812)
Attached Thumbnails
Volume Profile and MTPredictor-mtp_wkly_bmt.png   Volume Profile and MTPredictor-mtp_90m_bmt.png   Volume Profile and MTPredictor-mtp_15m_bmt.png  
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  #14 (permalink)
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SisyphusStone View Post
No worries!
Always horses for courses. CD certainly isn't the be-all and end-all, but it works well for me. I find it much more intuitive an simple than the OF charts. I also keep an eye on a composite volume profile.
IRT. Yep, it's a bit different and certainly takes a bit of getting used to, but it's really growing on me. The only reason I use NT7 is I like to trade off the chart, especially intra-day. It's just about OK as a charting package, tho' its renko and PnF functionality are about as useful as tits on a bull. Rather like IB's charting!

I agree the move is very stretched, but once the move is initiated it can keep going on low volume way into the realms of what we would rationally consider stretched. It wouldn't surprise me if this is an expanded flat B wave and the last 2 days have been absorption. I'll be watching for a potential spring tomorrow. Today was the first low-end close of the rally.

The weekly chart shows the big resistance band we've been in since Sept. and you could argue that last week's bar was a low volume spring of the Aug 2007 reaction low before the high. It also bounced of the dp from that low (I don't know if you've noticed it, and Steve has never mentioned it to my knowledge, but the prior dps often reverse role in the old saw, support becomes resistance and vice versa. I've often found they are responsible for price reversing between regular dps)

There was massive selling around the 1432 level so give then at least another 10pts before they are likely to start puking, but if they do we could get quite a powerful short-covering rally. The whole move down off the 1468 high has been difficult to frame, but from the 90m chart I think we may have had a 5-3-5 move up that has solidly taken out the main dp. My suspicion is that we have been working a 3 expanded flat and we potentially have another 5-3-5 to go. It would also provide a nice run up into month end and the closing of a lot of trading books for the year.
On the 15m chart the stf, while beyond the strong level looks to be backing off and so tomorrow could see a divergence with a price spike lower. - We'll see!

Time to roll away!

Composites - out of all of Market profile components, that is just about the only useful thing I found for me, I agree totally, its worth watching.

Just like you mentioned about getting used to IRT, I scoffed at OF initially, but it took a couple of sessions to figure out its nuances. Something about that appeals to me.

About violated DP becoming S/R, its totally true - Steve wont cover it, I suspect partly because it makes the wave counting look foolish and secondly it takes practice and time, I cant tell how many times I have seen that happen.

DPs are merely zones of interest, its logical that there is high probability of symmetrical action in between them as long as other factors line up as well. I have used this to take trades myself. The entire fall from Obamas election was a DP fall off, on the Daily. its was so lovely, as is this one occurring right now.

All of this prognostication is useless, its hindsight and analysis. Always entertaining and almost never profitable. Only thing matters is execution in the now, which is one of the reasons to pursue OF.

Not sure about wave counts, I hate doing that - as much as I use MTP, I find little use for wave counting, the mind is tricky devil in creating its own illusions. One tends to get carried away. Although I am hoping for the bearish break continuing as I am still short targeting 1365 on Small swing position, same with Oil

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  #15 (permalink)
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Deucalion View Post
Composites - out of all of Market profile components, that is just about the only useful thing I found for me, I agree totally, its worth watching.

Just like you mentioned about getting used to IRT, I scoffed at OF initially, but it took a couple of sessions to figure out its nuances. Something about that appeals to me.

About violated DP becoming S/R, its totally true - Steve wont cover it, I suspect partly because it makes the wave counting look foolish and secondly it takes practice and time, I cant tell how many times I have seen that happen.

DPs are merely zones of interest, its logical that there is high probability of symmetrical action in between them as long as other factors line up as well. I have used this to take trades myself. The entire fall from Obamas election was a DP fall off, on the Daily. its was so lovely, as is this one occurring right now.

All of this prognostication is useless, its hindsight and analysis. Always entertaining and almost never profitable. Only thing matters is execution in the now, which is one of the reasons to pursue OF.

Not sure about wave counts, I hate doing that - as much as I use MTP, I find little use for wave counting, the mind is tricky devil in creating its own illusions. One tends to get carried away. Although I am hoping for the bearish break continuing as I am still short targeting 1365 on Small swing position, same with Oil

Well we got the break down; somewhat deeper than I expected, but the relentless selling in the London session squeezed some key longs out and we eventually stopped at the value area low of the consolidation and rally up from 1375. Hope you took some nice profits on your short trade - good call!

Nice outside reversal day - just! - but on solid volume. 10.75 marks the high of the heavy volume mark-down bar on the 7th with the gap from there to 23.0. If this was B then an a-b-c 1:1 takes us neatly to 1450.25 right on the low of the second gap from 50.25 to 53.0. Haven't looked at MTP today but guessing there may be a daily dp up there. Really would be a lot easier to have the Ninja plug-in, but that's more money so we'll see!

Just kicked on MTP and the 1450 area does look like a nice target right in the W4 dp, the high of the key mark-down bar and a typical Wave C projected off today's low. Time will tell!

Best
SS

"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes the laws."
Mayer Amschel Rothschild (1744 -1812)
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Volume Profile and MTPredictor-mtp_daily_bmt.png  
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  #16 (permalink)
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SisyphusStone View Post
Well we got the break down; somewhat deeper than I expected, but the relentless selling in the London session squeezed some key longs out and we eventually stopped at the value area low of the consolidation and rally up from 1375. Hope you took some nice profits on your short trade - good call!

Nice outside reversal day - just! - but on solid volume. 10.75 marks the high of the heavy volume mark-down bar on the 7th with the gap from there to 23.0. If this was B then an a-b-c 1:1 takes us neatly to 1450.25 right on the low of the second gap from 50.25 to 53.0. Haven't looked at MTP today but guessing there may be a daily dp up there. Really would be a lot easier to have the Ninja plug-in, but that's more money so we'll see!

Just kicked on MTP and the 1450 area does look like a nice target right in the W4 dp, the high of the key mark-down bar and a typical Wave C projected off today's low. Time will tell!

Best
SS

Since you have taken the effort to point that, it would be impolite to not reply

I was short ES from 1400, stop 1404, my trailing stop got hit at 86, so not bad
Was short Oil from 87.29, the overnight did well, hit my 100tick target at 86.29...coming into inventory that was a decent trade especially as my RR on that was over 5 (1 car only)

MTP didn't do that well today, except this DP double violation and support retest. Which is ironically what we chatted about yesterday. But OF literally ruled today, the combination of MTP DP and OF was lethal.

The critical thing was that OF kept me out of trouble, which is worth its weight in gold, and MTP allowed me to re-frame.

Charts -
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MTP showed areas of interest, OF allowed for granular precision, a decent play. Wish I had gotten filled when the 10AM buying frenzy occurred but buyers were in hurry, so no luck there

PS - I agree on the DP inflection use, but you have to be careful, use some other un - correlated way to confirm this. otherwise, its a bad risk


Last edited by Deucalion; November 28th, 2012 at 10:04 PM. Reason: Grammah! and Added content
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  #17 (permalink)
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Deucalion View Post
Composites - out of all of Market profile components, that is just about the only useful thing I found for me, I agree totally, its worth watching.

Just like you mentioned about getting used to IRT, I scoffed at OF initially, but it took a couple of sessions to figure out its nuances. Something about that appeals to me.

About violated DP becoming S/R, its totally true - Steve wont cover it, I suspect partly because it makes the wave counting look foolish and secondly it takes practice and time, I cant tell how many times I have seen that happen.

DPs are merely zones of interest, its logical that there is high probability of symmetrical action in between them as long as other factors line up as well. I have used this to take trades myself. The entire fall from Obamas election was a DP fall off, on the Daily. its was so lovely, as is this one occurring right now.

All of this prognostication is useless, its hindsight and analysis. Always entertaining and almost never profitable. Only thing matters is execution in the now, which is one of the reasons to pursue OF.

Not sure about wave counts, I hate doing that - as much as I use MTP, I find little use for wave counting, the mind is tricky devil in creating its own illusions. One tends to get carried away. Although I am hoping for the bearish break continuing as I am still short targeting 1365 on Small swing position, same with Oil

Couldn't resist popping this one up [ES 90min] after the comments re: S/R in MTP!

"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes the laws."
Mayer Amschel Rothschild (1744 -1812)
Attached Thumbnails
Volume Profile and MTPredictor-mtp_support_resistance.png  
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  #18 (permalink)
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Deucalion View Post
Since you have taken the effort to point that, it would be impolite to not reply

I was short ES from 1400, stop 1404, my trailing stop got hit at 86, so not bad
Was short Oil from 87.29, the overnight did well, hit my 100tick target at 86.29...coming into inventory that was a decent trade especially as my RR on that was over 5 (1 car only)

MTP didn't do that well today, except this DP double violation and support retest. Which is ironically what we chatted about yesterday. But OF literally ruled today, the combination of MTP DP and OF was lethal.

The critical thing was that OF kept me out of trouble, which is worth its weight in gold, and MTP allowed me to re-frame.

Charts -
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MTP showed areas of interest, OF allowed for granular precision, a decent play. Wish I had gotten filled when the 10AM buying frenzy occurred but buyers were in hurry, so no luck there

PS - I agree on the DP inflection use, but you have to be careful, use some other un - correlated way to confirm this. otherwise, its a bad risk

Very sharp charts and trades, my friend - congrats.
I managed to catch the bottom but took profits into the overhead Ice, but a nice trade. Wasn't concentrating when it bottomed at 1393 so missed that one.
It's a pity MTP stand-alone doesn't support tick/renko vol bars, c'est la vie!
Just attached a 3m and 5m charts out of interest. The 5m is the sharpest and correlates best with your vol one, but without order flow or CD you would miss the trade with mtp though you might have taken the spring at 1393. MTP definitely needs something like OF to really sharpen it up for trade entry. It's real strength is in the dp zones for framing I guess.

Bon chance! on the morrow

"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes the laws."
Mayer Amschel Rothschild (1744 -1812)
Attached Thumbnails
Volume Profile and MTPredictor-mtp_3min_chart.png   Volume Profile and MTPredictor-mtp_5min_chart.png  
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  #19 (permalink)
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Thank you, I reject the notion of 1450. Just as I reject the notion of 1200. But only because I have NO clue. As I said, all this wave counting and DP drawing is harmful.

I do not the ability, the tools, or the information to call things. Even though I am very much USD bullish, it can retrace quite a bit (to 77), and still remain macro bullish. That would allow ES to jump higher, but I have equal reasoning to be very bearish.

Watch how USD struggled to jump from 78 (that is not how impulsive waves form), very good case to be USD bearish, but monthly is solidly bullish. My uneducated opinion is that - I simply do not know.

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SisyphusStone View Post
Well we got the break down; somewhat deeper than I expected, but the relentless selling in the London session squeezed some key longs out and we eventually stopped at the value area low of the consolidation and rally up from 1375. Hope you took some nice profits on your short trade - good call!

Nice outside reversal day - just! - but on solid volume. 10.75 marks the high of the heavy volume mark-down bar on the 7th with the gap from there to 23.0. If this was B then an a-b-c 1:1 takes us neatly to 1450.25 right on the low of the second gap from 50.25 to 53.0. Haven't looked at MTP today but guessing there may be a daily dp up there. Really would be a lot easier to have the Ninja plug-in, but that's more money so we'll see!

Just kicked on MTP and the 1450 area does look like a nice target right in the W4 dp, the high of the key mark-down bar and a typical Wave C projected off today's low. Time will tell!

Best
SS

Do you have to draw in the wave counts yourself or does the MTP software do that for you? Thanks

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