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Trades from 7/9/2012
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Created: by sdonahue Attachments:2

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Trades from 7/9/2012

  #1 (permalink)
Elite Member
Camas, WA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: MTPredictor, NinjaTrader, MultiCharts
Broker/Data: Mirus/Zen-Fire, MBTrading, thinkorswim, IQFeed (Data)
Favorite Futures: US E-mini's, Currency Futures, Forex
 
Posts: 31 since Sep 2009
Thanks: 6 given, 72 received

Trades from 7/9/2012

Here is my trading from today on the e-mini's. I didn't like the way the NQ was unfolding, but the YM jumped out at me once the ES made it's way into 15m DP support.

After sitting through a retracement all the way back almost to my entry, where my stop was at breakeven, the market reversed again to yield a nice +5R trade off of the low of the day.

In addition, there was an additional trade setup that was a valid pyramid opportunity, but the ABC correction was a little steep, and there was reason to potentially suspect a possible decline based on the higher timeframe, and so I did not add it. The other markets did support a potential low there, but, such is life.

Nonetheless, I did update my target just in case, and since my original stop was not hit, the trade yielded a nice +5R profit as the market rallied into the close.

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  #2 (permalink)
Elite Member
Phoenix, AZ USA
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers
Favorite Futures: NQ
 
Chez's Avatar
 
Posts: 98 since Nov 2011
Thanks: 129 given, 102 received

Hey Shawn,

Thanks for post and nice trade. My data feed must have been slightly different as I got a different setup on my YM 3 min chart. You managed your trade beautifully.

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  #3 (permalink)
Elite Member
Camas, WA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: MTPredictor, NinjaTrader, MultiCharts
Broker/Data: Mirus/Zen-Fire, MBTrading, thinkorswim, IQFeed (Data)
Favorite Futures: US E-mini's, Currency Futures, Forex
 
Posts: 31 since Sep 2009
Thanks: 6 given, 72 received


Hi Chez,

Nice- I think it's because I have my R/R filter set at 2 and the R/R at the first target on that one was 1.9R with my data feeds, but I would have looked to take that one to at least the target off of the original set up as a pyramid trade on top of the position as I had greater confidence in the move up at that time.

I should probably turn it off or lower it a little so I catch instances like that when I may not be looking at the chart.

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  #4 (permalink)
Elite Member
Phoenix, AZ USA
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers
Favorite Futures: NQ
 
Chez's Avatar
 
Posts: 98 since Nov 2011
Thanks: 129 given, 102 received

Hey Shawn,

Thanks for the suggestion. Just to make sure I understand, if the target for the dp trade was higher than the the TS1 trade, if you entered on the TS1, you would move the target to the higher target of the dp trade?

I appreciate your insight!

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  #5 (permalink)
Elite Member
Camas, WA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: MTPredictor, NinjaTrader, MultiCharts
Broker/Data: Mirus/Zen-Fire, MBTrading, thinkorswim, IQFeed (Data)
Favorite Futures: US E-mini's, Currency Futures, Forex
 
Posts: 31 since Sep 2009
Thanks: 6 given, 72 received

Hi Chez,

That's right. If I am pyramiding and if the second trade target is closer than what I am already anticipating as an initial target based on my current position, then I will adjust the target on the second portion of the position to at minimum coincide with the original target.

Sometimes, it works in reverse, as was the case with the trade I posted - even though I did not take the second trade, I did adjust the target because I felt that if that trade was going to work, there was a good chance in rallying to that target, which is what happened. Had I taken it, I would have sought to hold the whole thing to that target.

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  #6 (permalink)
Elite Member
Phoenix, AZ USA
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers
Favorite Futures: NQ
 
Chez's Avatar
 
Posts: 98 since Nov 2011
Thanks: 129 given, 102 received

Thanks for your help Shawn,

Today was tougher for me. Prices opened into DP resistance on the 15 min charts but was a an outside gap up. So my plan was to see if the gap couldn't close in the first 20-40 min, to see if it would continue to run to the up side. Also, prices on the ES opened at a wave 3 on the 15min so a drop into the wave 4 target would present long opportunities too.

Well, that was my game plan, but prices filled the gap and dropped through the wave 4 target. Now looking at 15 min dp support areas to see if we get any swing up from there followed by an abc correction for a long setup.

So far for me, I have sat on my hands because I haven't seen any clear signals.

If you have any thoughts on the day or took any trades, I would love to see what you did today.

Thanks,
Tom
skype: tom.chez1

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  #7 (permalink)
Elite Member
Camas, WA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: MTPredictor, NinjaTrader, MultiCharts
Broker/Data: Mirus/Zen-Fire, MBTrading, thinkorswim, IQFeed (Data)
Favorite Futures: US E-mini's, Currency Futures, Forex
 
Posts: 31 since Sep 2009
Thanks: 6 given, 72 received

Hi Tom,

With the opening gap into DP resistance and a very strong reaction off of it, I was looking aggressively to the short side for a tarde off of an ABC correction, and exactly that came on the ES 5m, which is the one that I took to nail the big drop into the afternoon session. Typically, I would look to the Typical Wave 3 target on this setp, but due to the size of the initial swing down, the Wave 3 was well beyond what was probable in terms of range for the day (though not impossible).

So, once it got down around the typical Wave C, I started trailing with the ATR stop, and got ticked out a little while before the close as the market started to bottom out there. [Accidentally typed "Wave 3". I wish]

The TF, on the other hand, had a similar setup that did hit the Wave3 for a +9.2R profit, but I currently do most of my analysis in the RT platform and have delayed data for the time being on that, so I haven't been trading it too much. But, that was a nice one. There was a nice trade on Gold also that nailed the big drop that I really with I was in on also - but I simply was not aggressive enough today.

In terms of the outside gap, I typically look at other factors when assessing an outside gap. first, I look for broad strength or weakness in global markets, as well as the size of the gap. When both are signficant, then I add more weight to the gap and look for continued pressure in the direction of the gap for a continuation.

When the gap is into larger degree resistance, and I do not see signficant broad strength or waekness in the other markets, I look to the reaction at the support or resistance level. When I see a very strong reaction, like I did today, then I know it's most likely a "gap trap", and if I'm not in the initial move, I begin to aggressively look for an initial correction against that reaction to enter in the direction of the reversal.

Incidentally, I have been warily on guard for trap up moves all week because of the position on the daily timeframe, with the US markets having rallied off of the recent lows in an ABC corrective pattern that could signal resumed selling pressure...


Last edited by sdonahue; July 10th, 2012 at 10:00 PM.
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