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posting trades for critiques
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posting trades for critiques

  #31 (permalink)
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ym ts1 11/8/12 12:45pm mst

I could use some help on this entry. I'm pretty sure is was a good setup, that just didn't work. However, if I missed something, I would love to know so I can learn from my mistakes and hopefully improve as a trader.

The big picture: ES and YM hit at 15 min DP support and moved up and the pulled back about a 61.8%.

TS1 setup on the YM 3 min. That is a setup that can pick the start of a wave 3. Wave 2 undfolded nat as an ABC, but as a 123 on the minor wave count. (first question - Is that OK, or is that a warning sign?)

I took the trade, had a nice swing up, followed by a small retracement, followed by a swing that was only a few higher. At the top of that swing, a TS4 sell came on the one minute chart. At that point, I chickened out and moved my stop to B/E. Eventually, price came back stopped me out and then continued to fall and would have hit my original stop.

I can't complain, I save a full loss, but I really don't like it when I don't follow the trade management rules. Steve has said that if a trade fails at the dp off the b swing (marked as the blue 2 on chart) you should move stop to B/E. That is basically where the trade failed, so maybe I did follow the rules and didn't chicken out of the trade. Wishful or positive thinking, you can let me know...

Thanks for your insights!

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  #32 (permalink)
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Chez View Post
I could use some help on this entry. I'm pretty sure is was a good setup, that just didn't work. However, if I missed something, I would love to know so I can learn from my mistakes and hopefully improve as a trader.

The big picture: ES and YM hit at 15 min DP support and moved up and the pulled back about a 61.8%.

TS1 setup on the YM 3 min. That is a setup that can pick the start of a wave 3. Wave 2 undfolded nat as an ABC, but as a 123 on the minor wave count. (first question - Is that OK, or is that a warning sign?) - That is OK, it can be an abc, 123 or irregular channel down

I took the trade, had a nice swing up, followed by a small retracement, followed by a swing that was only a few higher. At the top of that swing, a TS4 sell came on the one minute chart. At that point, I chickened out and moved my stop to B/E. Eventually, price came back stopped me out and then continued to fall and would have hit my original stop. Cant look at too many frames, especially not a 1M if you want to trade a decent swing. I would ignore the 1M completely.

I can't complain, I save a full loss, but I really don't like it when I don't follow the trade management rules. Steve has said that if a trade fails at the dp off the b swing (marked as the blue 2 on chart) you should move stop to B/E. That is basically where the trade failed, so maybe I did follow the rules and didn't chicken out of the trade. Wishful or positive thinking, you can let me know...You did it right. It was valid for me, I would have taken it (notwithstanding Steve's rule on Red STF. You saved yourself money, so it was a good trade.

Thanks for your insights!

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@Chez, The standard rules call for you to not take the buys on red STF, so that would be against that trade. I ignore those anyway, but I supplement it with feel of the market, like a higher prior swing (see the CL chart posted on a prvious post, that is what I refer to), which did not come. Technically you did the right thing, so it didn't work. Move to the next one

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  #33 (permalink)
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Hi Chez,

Looking at my 3 min chart from the YM today the STF was red at the time. At that particular moment I was short the ES targeting 1382 and it was looking quite bearish to me so with that bias I would have passed on a TS1 buy setup on the YM.

I am also on IB and using their data. I am curious if you are using their data as well and if you find it reliable.

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  #34 (permalink)
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Just looking at wave 3. Would be more comfortable if the first leg of wave 3 was higher than the high of wave 1. Otherwise too many tops at the same level /w reverse heads & shoulders. Could have considered a reverse short at 12812 with initial target at 12800.

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  #35 (permalink)
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Thanks

Thanks for all the responses. All good points to consider.

I know it was a red stf, but many times, the first correction of the first swing off of a major 15 dp area, the stf will still be against the trend. I believe Steve mentions this about the holy grail setup.

You guys do make a great point about the mess to the left of the trade entry. There was all ready solid structure that my trade would have had to break through to be profitable. That, I see as the biggest problem with my entry.

Although shorts worked, I was looking for longs since the ES and YM had already reached 15 min dp support and had made a swing off of it.

@Don Double U, I do use the data from interactive brokers and have not had any problems with time based charts. Unfortunately, I can't try tick charts like Deucalion shows with their data feed. I may need to switch to zenfire to see if I like tick charts better.

Thanks again for the help, it gave me some great insight!

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  #36 (permalink)
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Man , these directional days on ES of all things are annoying. Nothing to do but sit out all day

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  #37 (permalink)
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Man , these directional days on ES of all things are annoying. Nothing to do but sit out all day

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@Deucalion - if we no get a retrace of 23 to 38%, and a ts1 or ts3 setup, would you be tempted for a long?

added to post: now that we have retraced 50 to 61.8% on a trending day, is that too much or does a long still look good?

Thanks!


Last edited by Chez; November 9th, 2012 at 02:38 PM. Reason: update to market
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  #38 (permalink)
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sitting all day is bad for your health

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YM VWAP reversion and overshoot like I mentioned in chat box. Probably got out too early.

He may break 12700.

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Last edited by Zondor; November 9th, 2012 at 02:54 PM.
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  #39 (permalink)
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Chez View Post
@Deucalion - if we no get a retrace of 23 to 38%, and a ts1 or ts3 setup, would you be tempted for a long?

added to post: now that we have retraced 50 to 61.8% on a trending day, is that too much or does a long still look good?

Thanks!

No, I am not long anything. I don't care about this short squeeze, its window dressing. This is the only trade of the day for me. It fairly symmetrical but because its counter intraday trend, I took first target. And done. My faith in out waiting others seems to have been rewarded
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  #40 (permalink)
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Keeping in mind, the macro is bearish (USD bullish), those that are nimble and can build a disciplined position with tight risk -
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Today's structure wasn't bad either , made up for two weeks of sub standard trading too

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