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I don't subscribe to the OP's school of thought but I do understand it and will offer my 2 cents worth , in an attempt to address the above posts.
1. I think the OP listed all the indicators when the thread started, and various individuals since then have changed the combination's to suit their style of trading. Use what works for you isn't a bad idea.
2. This system as originally presented consisted of a trend following system (TF) coupled with a Counter Trend (CT) or Reversal System. The EMA's, CCI, and Stochastics were part of the trend following portion (TF). The Bollinger Bands and a formation of price bars made up the Counter Trend portions (CT). The confusion started over deciding when, how and if to over ride the trend and follow a Counter Trend move. The system is much easier to understand if you separate the Trend from the Counter Trend portion, get comfortable with the TF and later decide whether to add the CT portion. I personally don't take CT trades. But that's a personal decision.
3. TF entries; if all the criteria is met (Short ma's above Long ma's, Stochastics showing uptrend) and the CCI crosses above the threshold (45 according to the OP), Go Long ; else if all the criteria is met (Short ma's below Long ma's, Stochastics showing down trend) and the CCI crosses below the threshold (-45 according to the OP), Go Short.
4. TF exits; if you are Long, exit when the CCI crosses below the Threshold OR the 5 bar count gives an exit signal, if you are Short, exit when the CCI crosses above the -Threshold OR the 5 bar count gives an exit signal.
5. CT portion: The OP touched on this is the early flurry of posts including information that he looked for reversal trades when the price reached the outer Bollinger Bands and he added the MACD to the mix to look for divergences . As confusion ensued, the discussion tapered down to mainly discussing the TF and the 5 Bar Count Indicator from Mike Winfrey.
6. Nuances: The OP mentioned from time to time that in addition to the concrete information he had given, he also took into account; the position of price in relation to the Bollinger Bands, strength and direction of the market. This information was included in the decision whether to pursue continuation trades as well as whether or not to take reversal trades.
7. Profitability: The OP stated that he did not believe his system could be automated. Therefore the only way to test the theoretical profits would be reliably honest sim trading or to go through a large enough period and manually record each possible trade. Of course there is the good old "Balls of Steel Test" of trading it live and posting the actual results with the Trade Analysis report like Bluemele and IagainstI have done in their journals. I do not recall seeing this information posted by the Op or any statements from him indicating if he has actually traded his system live or not. That would be a question you may want to pose directly to the OP.
8. Stops: The Op mentioned a 10 tick stop for the TF and said more volatile instruments like CL would probably require a larger stop. He mentioned that he also uses a trailing stop and moves stops in reversal trades but did not elaborate beyond that.
Mike I understand what you mean about colored bars, I don't use them either. I have changed the BackColor for things I have done for other people. Of course if you have multiple indicators that change Back Color with Opacity, you end up with a frickin rainbow. I have at the request from others built in the BackColor change with Color Bars and Draw Arrows, Dots etc. I think it's just redundant and overloads the screen. But It sure seems to make a lot of folks happy.
I'm just a simple man trading a simple plan.
My daddy always said, "Every day above ground is a good day!"
Can someone please in simple English and short explain the 12345 numbering for CCI:
1. How the count is done,
2. What does it tell you, and
3. How is it used to initiate entries or exits?
A simple summary of this system with the relevant files at the beginning of the thread (and updated as needed) would be helpful to clear all the confusion.
What the OP is looking for is 5 CCI bars that are stepping down for long exit or 5 CCI bars stepping up for short exit.
Long Exit: You need 5 CCI bars stepping down. In the process of this happening ,if the current CCI bar closes higher than a previous CCI bar or CCI bars ,but the current CCI bar is still lower than the highest CCI bar in the step down series, you no longer count the previous CCI bars that closed lower than the current CCI bar.
The current bar's number is now the number of , the last previous bar that closed higher than the current bar , plus 1. If the current bar closes higher than the first bar in the count series, start counting all over with the current bar now being bar number 1.
Examples:
200 (1), 199 (2) ,198 (3), 195 (4), 197 (4), 196 (5) . In this example 197 is higher than 195 but is lower than the rest of the preceding numbers in the count, so 197's bar number = previous higher bar number + 1. In this case the previous higher bar 198 was bar number 3 in the count. 197's bar number = 3+1=4, replacing 195 which had been number 4.
200 (1), 198 (2) ,197 (3), 196 (4), 199 (2), 198 (3) , 197 (4), 196 (5). In this example 199 is higher than the 3 previous numbers but is lower than the first number in the count. You would no longer count the 3 previous bars. 199's bar number = previous higher bar number + 1. In this case the previous higher bar 200 was bar number 1 in the count. 199's bar number = 1+1=2.
200 (1), 199 (2), 198 (3) , 197 (4), 201 (Start over with 1), 200 (2), 199 (3), 198 (4), 197 (5) . In this example when the bar closed at 201 , it was higher than all the previous bars in the count, restarting the count with bar number 1.
Short Exit: You need 5 CCI bars stepping up. In the process of this happening ,if the current CCI bar closes lower than a previous CCI bar or CCI bars ,but the current CCI bar is still higher than the lowest CCI bar in the step up series, you no longer count the previous CCI bars that closed higher than the current CCI bar.
The current CCI bar's number is now the number of , the last previous CCI bar that closed lower than the current CCI bar , plus 1. If the current CCI bar closes lower than the first CCI bar in the count series, start counting all over with the current CCI bar now being bar number 1.
Examples:
200 (1), 201(2), 203 (3), 202 (3), 203 (4), 204 (5) . In this example, 202 was lower than 203. You would no longer count 203. 202's bar number would be the previous lower bar number +1 (2+1=3), replacing 203 as bar number 3.
200 (1), 202(2), 203 (3), 204 (4), 201(2), 202 (3) , 204(4) , 205 (5). In this example, 201 was lower than the 3 previous bars but higher than bar number 1. You would no longer count the 3 previous bars. 201's bar number would be the previous lower bar number +1 . In this case the previous lower bar ,200 , was bar number 1 in the count . 201's bar number = 1+ 1 =2.
200 (1), 201(2), 202 (3), 203 (4), 199 (1), 200 (2), 201 (3), 202 (4) , 203 (5) . In this example, 199 was lower than all the previous lower bars in the count including 200 which was bar number one. You start counting all over again with 199 being bar number 1.
OR you could just use Mike Winfrey's really cool and headache saving indicator to count for you.
I'm just a simple man trading a simple plan.
My daddy always said, "Every day above ground is a good day!"
au contraire, take Exp: 200, 195, 185, 150, 148, 160, 120, 50: is a down count.
connect 146 to 160 you get an up slope that is why it is ignore. 4 consc down slopes are:
120-50
160-120
185-160
195-195
The operating word in your explanation is 'slope', as opposed to 'bars' which has been the base of explanation so far. I think the introduction of slope, makes it more confusing.
the bar count is hard to understand because some bars are not counted, but one you understand you are looking for down slopes (or not up slope to be more precise) you just simply ignore the bar that cause up slope condition.
