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Mistake to relate ES and economy. The ES rarely reflects the economy. Reason why analysts look at forward earnings - current earnings never make sense of current pricing so it must be something else! (don't get me started on expanding/contracting multiples )
The 70's decade is regarded as a weak economic period (weakest in its time outside of the depression), yet the SPX put in an ultimate low in '74, and subsequent higher lows thru to 1980 when the SPX eventually broke out to new all time highs and a bull run. People were bearish throughout the 70's and 80's - just as they are now. Same could be said for the 50's but I haven't studied it as thoroughly.
I see 1250 near term, then a potential correction, but then up to 1350ish sometime next year. (then the odds of a more significant correction developing are much greater imo)
This hypothesis is not static, but at the moment I see nothing to suggest a new bear market upon us in the near term.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
I am definitely willing to work ES SHORT side with any new highs until year end and then in January that is a whole other ball game......new quarter and new year for equities funds.