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Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
Posts: 1,038 since Jul 2010
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Looking like ES could roll over again. 1285's were hit overnight. ES is now struggling with 1293's which is half way back from the same anchor point high's as yesterday (1308). Looking for 1272's now if there's follow through.
Don't think it will roll today - range day with market mired between the PP and S1 but an upsloping VWAP - market probing higher. Market is probably near term oversold and needs to relieve that condition, shake out some shorts , and trap some new longs. $TRIN below 1.00, uptrending $ADD, and strong TICKDJ confirms underlying strength. I think you will have to wait untill next week to see 1272.00...but we will, indeed!!!
Next resistance is R1@ 1298.00 - if the market gets above there, we will indeed test the bottom of the professional gap @1301.00 but not get above 1302.00. Big seller at this level.
If the market were to trade and close above 1302.00, we would have to to take into consideration, that the downside breakout may have been an FBO and a bear trap...but I seriously doubt that.
I'm wondering if we are ready to fail and fall. I for one never thought we would back this high, but I guess when the powers that be decide to do something they do it. There are arguments for both sides. I try my hardest to not have an opinion and let the analysis or the market speak. Attached are a couple charts with one scenario to consider that is not as bearish. Comments are always welcome.
I think it is necessary that we take a more holistic view of the market with an emphasis on price action. There are two particularly significant factors worth noting. The market is no longer rallying on good news, and tech stocks are leading the way down. This tells me the bulls are no longer in charge, and the stocks that have fueled the recent asset ramping, are no longer going up. In addition, action in long term treasuries and market internals confirm a defensive to bearish posture.
While Friday closed 11.75 higher , the price action was a classic response to a large professional gap down day, trading approximately half way into the gap and selling off. If for some reason, however, the shorts were to allow the gap to be filled, we would have to consider that this sell off was a false breakout, and a bear trap. Barring that from happening the odds are in favor of the market trading much lower.
