The reason i formulated my question like this was because it is not always evident to synthetize your comment into actionable knowledge. Something similar to what Mirus is sending every day could compliment your analysis nicely:
This was for today prior to the opening.
Our Preference: LONG positions above 1184 with targets @ 1222 & 1230.
Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 1184 will call for a slide towards 1167 & 1155.
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).
The following 2 users say Thank You to trendisyourfriend for this post:
LOL - i just see a BIG 'W' formation in development.
Regarding subjectivity related to our analysis you mark a point but certain techniques are more prone to favor it. Namely, pivot points, Fibonacci studies, Elliot waves, patterns are all techniques that enter into this category. In fact, most techniques based on mathematical equations are prone to favor subjectivity. On the other hand, techniques that identify supply/demand objectively based on volatility and volume at price are less prone to subjectivity and consequently more reliable. That's my subjective opinion and i am sure open to dispute.
The following user says Thank You to trendisyourfriend for this post:
I was just listening to a recording by Jim Dalton from 2000 in which he states that one of the hallmarks of a good trader is that they can tell you all the things the market COULD have done and didn't. His point was that it is important to understand the implications of what the market did, but it is equally important to understand what it could have done and did not do. This later type of analysis tells you a lot about the composition of the market's participants.
For instance, today could have balanced all day, or could have balanced early and then broken out to the upside with a continuation of the existing week-long trend up from the lows. Right now (3:30 est) it looks like the market balanced early and broke lower - perhaps closing on or near its lows.
I expected balance up here (betw 710 and 735 on the russell) and a break to the downside but I expected that the market would simply balance today and possibly break in response to the employment situation tomorrow. I am eager to see what tomorrow brings...
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
The following user says Thank You to Surly for this post:
I understand this point but again i think it is not necessary to go that far to make money specially if you just scalp for a few ticks of profit at a time. This later type of analysis as you wrote is more akin to developing an ability like playing a musical instrument. In that sense, it's an art. But hopefully, you can play good music without learning how to read it.
Most systems we see on futures.io (formerly BMT) are in that league. They are systems to scalp a few ticks here and there. They can be used without being too much concerned with the overall market context as exposed in this thread.
However, if you can develop this ability then i suppose it may open the door to a less stressfull way of trading and to more opportunities because you can plan ahead of time different scenarios. I am not there i can't tell for sure but this is how i see it at my stage as a trader.
The following 4 users say Thank You to trendisyourfriend for this post: