I posted this in the "shoot the short" thread, but seems appropriate to post here as well.
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Unfortunately, I think the market may remain mired in it's current trading range, 1157 -1225 basis the SPX for the near future. The market just took current macroeconomic/geo-political events' best shot, withstood the blows, and came out of the beating basically unscathed and prepared for the bullish seasonality that is upon us. As bearish as I am, the market appears to have discounted all the bad news. There should now be an upward bias to the market from now through the X-mas holidays, which includes the annual Santa Claus rally.
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Looks like the Santa Claus Rally is at work again this year. In a matter of two days, we have nearly reached the top of this trading range. Renewed buying interest or just another short squeeze? There was a lot of support at the 50 DMA which also could have been an extension long from this past summer's high's.
Either way, the last two mornings have been very lucrative. Hope no one got stuck in yesterday's mid-day chop fest. Pro gap up days are usually the most difficult to trade because most of the move took place in the overnight session. Large gaps will typically have a lot of "at the open" orders which will create a continuation of the overnight move with no intent of a gap fill. If you missed this move, you were subjected to chop although there was one nice burst during the doldrums. Any pullbacks are bought right up so, if you were trying to short, you probably got annihilated. We'll see if these levels hold or maybe even a new high can print.
I'm posting these updates to give a sense of the big picture and the path of least resistance however, I recommend taking your intraday set ups, follow your own rules and as always, practice sound money management. You never know when the market will turn.
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