I generally think anything less than 1 point is scalping.. more like 1-2 ticks.... but with a day like today when its narrow and slow, 2 points is def not scalping...
Sometimes you have to lower your targets when volatility dies, but when it expands, so does your risk, and so should your targets... so i guess the real definition of scalping is when you constantly go for a few ticks as your target..
Out of all the trading days since sept 97 where
the day before was not an inside day
AND the day before was an Up day
AND it opened extremely high in the day before's range (between 75% and 99%)
AND the distance to the target(YH) was between 2.5 and 5 points
80.98% of those days the target (YH)was filled.
There were 184 days that met all of the criteria above and 149 of them closed the distance to the target (YH).
The most recent ones were:
The following user says Thank You to Laserdan for this post:
If you have an up day and overnight price action - Globex influenced by Asian and European Markets - confirms the close/high range of the prior day by producing an open near the highs of the prior day, it is indeed likely that the high will be tested.
The prior direction being up, there are three scenarios for the day that can develop:
(a) Balancing Day: In this case price will either retrace to a 38% or 50% fib level and then test the highs, or do the same thing in an inverted order.
(b) Up Thrust Day: In this case the prior day's high will be exceeded
(c) Down Day: In this case the prior day's high should be at least tested. The test can be a failure, so if the high is nearly reached - just 2 or 3 ticks off - this satisfies the failed test. However the failed test can be produced during the night session, and in this case price never looks back.
Yes, I believe that your statistics are correct.
Last edited by Fat Tails; September 28th, 2010 at 07:14 PM.
yes, I should have said "target filled and/or exceeded" because I measure by what % the pice actually gets to
DATE YH Filled %
Would be interesting to have stats for the daily pivot. Similarly to what you did with the Globex open could we exploit the distance of price at the open at 9:30 EST to the daily pivot. Or if price is above the daily pivot what's the chance to have a green day. Samething when price is below the daily pivot at the open.
Agreed. The problem is I have access to only Globex data. Now if someone could provide me with some RTH ES data, say going back 10 or so years, I could duplicate my database in a flash(and possibly add pivots). hint hint
do you have some stats when price makes a Low during the Globex hours if price test it for the first time but during the RTH what's the probability for this test to fail or for price to bounce off of that Low ? Same thing for the High. The risk/reward of a failed test is very appealing.
This morning on the ES 2010-09-29 (YYYY-MM-DD):
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