Caught a couple good trades. One last night. I knew this had to be a wave 4, i was too tired to stay awake and short this sucker, but right now I saw that ending diagonal. This was a great trade. I'm sure you saw this one as well
Interesting wave count, I was not in front of my PC this morning as I was out playing tennis. I have to say that I do not have a real wave count on min charts on ETH I mostly look at range charts as it is easier to see where the market is heading (less noise) because of the indicators that I am using so I can focus more on pullback to get into a trade.
Looks like it extended into a larger ending diagonal. Another good scalp or maybe swing trade depending on what it does in the globex session tonight. It looks like wave C was a smidge over 100% of Wave A length but usually this stands on a zigzag. The 6 hour bigger picture shows a perfect 61.8 wave 2 or B retrace, but of course it could carry higher.
This is a great example of looking at the bigger picture charts to see where the market is. If I zoomed in further I would have been concerned it went past the 61.8 fib but as we said before it can stretch a little past this point, so if it stands, the 6 hour would have put things into perspective
That's what I love about this software, you can do all sorts of ratio analysis as well to find those clusters
We shall see guys
Last edited by smb2222; May 11th, 2016 at 12:36 AM.
Reason: forgot chart
General Question> Isn't EW 5 waves up, then 3 waves down? Waves are not in the scientific/engineering manner, but it is 1st leg is up, 2nd leg is down by not as much as the 1st wave was up, 3rd leg is up and is the largest, 4th wave is down and confused, and 5th leg is up but has the least magnitude?
Then it is 1st leg is down, 2nd leg up but not as much as the 1st wave was down, then there is the 3rd wave down.??
What kills me is the sub waves within a wave. They can be used to justify anything.
The answer would be too long for me to write, but if you really want to understand EW, there are many great resources including Home: Elliott Wave International or you can just google "basics of elliott wave". Once you read it over and over again you will start to understand the significance, and why many use this stradegy to supplement thier trading.
To understand EW you need to simplify wave counts and best way to do that is to start by filtering the waves as if you try to count everything you will quickly get lost and feel very confused also you need to use a time frame that is not too small but will provide you nice waves. Also you need to understand that EW is something that can be perpetual so for me I will never try to count waves from 10 years ago on a big time frame to see where market might be heading in the months or years ahead, I only focus on what can happen in the day session ahead of me as market can quickly reverse on you should you try to have it going the way you would expect it as per your wave count.
Anyway let's take as an example YM from the daily perspective we seems to have 1 leg down from April 20 to May 6 then from there we went up and printed possibly an abc so far, so on my 10 min chart they are labeled (1A) (2B) and (3C) red and in these legs we had each time an abc in them with wave c subdividing in 5 waves suggesting we could be in for more down move. So even if in text book we should always have 5 waves up then an abc down but because market is in perpetual movement you will always have some patterns that can be different but that will always include part of EW theory.
As Shawn stated you first need to understand the basic rules of wave patterns as when waves overlapped each other and Fib ratios.
I would like to explain more but you need to understand the basic first. I hope this post has not confused you more.
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Looks like this count was correct. I posted my interperatation today. I still think we could see one more wave 5 low before a substantial rally. I'm sure you liked the last few days Larry if you had the chance to trade. The wave counts were what I call clean and stable. The YM is very clear to me. Of course it could morph into something else, but I had some good trades today.
My take is this is still and ABC large correction from the April 20th high. The reason I don't think its a larger wave 3 decline is because of the volume and intensity. Of course any EW follower knows wave 3's are fierce and strong. I don't see this panic yet so to me it's only a large correction and then up to new highs this year. But I think the next few days will tell us the story
Last edited by smb2222; May 14th, 2016 at 02:30 AM.
Reason: Forgot to mention
The following user says Thank You to smb2222 for this post:
Your count seems quite accurate for now, the only thing we don't know for sure is how this count will evolve as yes this could be part of an abc from April 20 high or this could be part of a much bigger decline based on weekly and daily chart. The ES has a different count based more on corrective legs. Only time will tell.
The following user says Thank You to Larry for this post:
Thanks for putting things into perspective Larry. I posted my long counts on a previous post the other day so I still have them in the back of my mind. Hope I didn't sound too cocky, that certainly wasn't my intention. I've been humbled by the market many times, so I just try to trade the subdivisions until it figures out what it's going to do. I've decided to only trade the beginning of corrections instead of the ends for now. I seem to do better during impulse wave counts. Corrections are a lot harder to nail for me right now. Unless it looks like a clear zigzag and falls into context. Then I'll take a stab at it.
Larry, on a side note. When you first started, how many lots did you trade and for how long? When did you get to the point where you felt comfortabel bracketing and adding more lots?
BTW, Look at that scary looking head and shoulders. I've seen some come to fruition and some just fake everyone out, but look at how the last one played out to the left. Interesting, we shall see.
I work at the bank of a well known retailer and our stock plunged 17% after hours when we released our numbers. I see some major storm clouds coming and I'm having trouble seeing how we can go to knew highs. It's been a blood bath in retail and energy earnings lately. But since EW is linked to social mood, all it would take is a positive comment from the FED to push it up to a peak. If it did, I'd be willing to bet it will be with an ending diagonal and then a serious crash. Just my 2 cents. It will be interesting that's for sure my friend
Thanks for any feedback.
Last edited by smb2222; May 15th, 2016 at 12:40 AM.
Reason: Wanted to comment on Charts