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This image is day 02/03/2016 of Dax future, Someone can predict without fibonaci retrancement that 9755 price level make a end of retrancement and go higher?
My big time frame 12range show me a bearish trend, Someone if traded predicted this exact long position on 9755 level.
Some way to discover if the retrancemente is only retrancemente or if is reverse trend like this case?
Aside from the fact that neither 12t nor 4t ranges mean anything with average daily FDAX ranges of >200p:
Even in both of your minuscule range frames you see the change from lower highs / lower lows (LH/LL) to
higher highs and higher lows (HH/HL). Which is the definition of an uptrend - a very short-term one in
this case. The reverse happens on the right side of the short-term up: HH/HL back to LH/LL - the definition
of a downtrend.
Last edited by choke35; March 20th, 2016 at 06:55 PM.
The following user says Thank You to choke35 for this post:
Distinguishing between a retracement and a reverse is a kind of "holy grail" of trading.
If you can discover a reliable way to judge it, you'll be beyond just rich. The reality, of course, is that there isn't and can't be a completely reliable way - inevitably it's simply a probabilistic question of what proportion of the time you can be right.