So this is what I want to do; I want to fade any open that crosses the Bollinger band and buy/sell on the return, ride it to the moving average and then up to the opposite band if it will go. Using 10 minute candles in 90 days of backtesting, this method is about 90%, but here's the catch...
Its backtesting and the bollinger bands have already formed so they will look different as they are forming in live trading. How do I formulate a buy signal? Do they have to cross and return 5 ticks for example? In a creeping open like today, where do I buy? Hopefully someone has an idea on this.
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).
Also what should my band settings be? I have 20 with 2.0 deviation now.
Very likely that your bands are calculated on the close of the bar so you are essentially asking to place a trade in the past which would of course be a great trade more than 90% of the time. It's much more difficult on the hard right edge of your screen
Yes, exactly Inletcap. I just came up with this edge yesterday and do not have a platform to backtest in real time yet so I will have to forward test starting with today's open. I suspect I will not approach 90% in real time, but even 50% with the constancy I'm seeing would be fine. I will keep you all posted. Anyone have suggestions on Bollinger settings?
How is the papertrading different? It seems the same to me as when I was trading cash (without the emotional rollercoaster). I made $600.00 on 2 NQ trades on paper yesterday on that rally you see above and the subsequent drop. Are you saying it would be a different number in cash? Why?
You just came up with a hypothesis that you've not tested and should have absolutely zero reason to believe it contains an edge until proven otherwise. In fact, you should assume it is negative expectancy until proven otherwise.
Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.
Need help? 1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first. 2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses. 3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make. 4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance. 5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers. 6) Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.
If you want to support our community, become an Elite Member.
The following 4 users say Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
that's an excellent point Mike. I wish it were an edge, but certainly cannot claim one at this time. I'm hopeful that something useful will come of my hypothesis, there's a good chance my failure to gain a proven edge at this point stem from over reliance on indicators, particularly lagging ones.