Is market forcasting wrong?? - Index Futures Trading | futures trading

Go Back

> Futures Trading, News, Charts and Platforms > Traders Hideout > Index Futures Trading

Is market forcasting wrong??
Started:October 15th, 2015 (06:24 AM) by Zentrader2010 Views / Replies:244 / 3
Last Reply:October 30th, 2015 (06:56 PM) Attachments:2

Welcome to

Welcome, Guest!

This forum was established to help traders (especially futures traders) by openly sharing indicators, strategies, methods, trading journals and discussing the psychology of trading.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading forums:
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive on our forums.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendor advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in openness and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, it is not something tangible you can download.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free and simple, and we will never resell your private information.

-- Big Mike

Thread Tools Search this Thread

Is market forcasting wrong??

Old October 15th, 2015, 06:24 AM   #1 (permalink)
Elite Member
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: E signal
Favorite Futures: APS ( SPI) Australia
Posts: 38 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 11 given, 16 received

Is market forcasting wrong??

Hi traders,

I wanted to start this thread because I like to try and imagine what will happen in the short-term with the market action - it helps me plan possible trades. I do it to help overcome bullish or bearish bias. I think that a lot of traders AVOID doing this - but after playing chess, I think there's nothing wrong with it.....why do I get the Impression 'Pro trader' don't try and guess what's going to play out in the next trading session? In my mind there is nothing wrong with doing fact, it helps me be prepared for any particular situation that may play out, being a discretionary trader. Of course, I can only trade the bars appearing in front of me.....but having some possible scenarios given the previous few sessions can't hurt....or can it?

Interested in opinions.....

I will give an example of a chart to show what I like to do:
Bullish scenario on ES futures - there is a smaller degree 2 legs down to complete a correction; also a trend line break out of down trend line, the 43 point extension of previous rally from the low gives a target above the major double top of 2026....there is a strong bullish spike up to a double top bear flag; if this fails to correct much then it could break through via short covering through the how it corrects in next session, possibly buy a smaller degree ( 15 min chart) correction that fails and a bullish reversal threatens bears positions and stops....
Bearish scenario - on the 60 min chart there is a clear break of the major uptrend line...there is already a 32 pt correction, but this is smaller than the 46 pt correction previously. The pike down from highs is bearish, so the bear rally take it back to a sell zone as it's a double top bear looks hard to sell here for most traders being such a strong covering rally....a marginal break to the 62 RT at 2002 is likely. Will have to wait and see if sellers come in coulds spike through, however if it reverses strongly back down into the 19 point trading range, selling high and buying low can be a short-term strategy from swings traders. Bias on the sellers side. The more bearish scenario is a 32 point double drive down to the larger double bottom area around 1968. I would look to sell if possible at 62 RT with a tight stop for a larger capitulation downwards, and take profit at the bottom of the smaller range and leave some contracts to run lower......
Of course, I don't pretend to KNOW what will happen, I don't even trade the ES, I trade the AUSSIE SPI, but it's the opinion of traders I'm interest in........

60 min view

Please register on to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

15 min view - just an example not trading advice; I'm playing with ideas only before session :

Please register on to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Last edited by Zentrader2010; October 15th, 2015 at 06:51 AM.
Reply With Quote

Old October 15th, 2015, 06:24 AM   #2 (permalink)
Quick Summary
Quick Summary Post

Quick Summary is created and edited by users like you... Add FAQ's, Links and other Relevant Information by clicking the edit button in the lower right hand corner of this message.


Old October 15th, 2015, 08:51 AM   #3 (permalink)
Elite Member
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader wt Rancho Dinero's profiling tools
Broker/Data: Stage 5 trading/AMP/Rithmic
Favorite Futures: ES, NQ
trendisyourfriend's Avatar
Posts: 3,599 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 2,924 given, 4,329 received

Check this page, you'll like it. Daily scenarios or hypothesis for the ES. It stats at 9:00 EDT each day and lasts 15-20 min. max.
Stage 5 - Trader Bite

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to trendisyourfriend for this post:

Old October 30th, 2015, 06:56 PM   #4 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
San Diego, California
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, Multicharts
Broker/Data: Optimus/Amp - CQG/Rithmic/IQ
Favorite Futures: NQ,TF,YM,CL,Options
UmBillyCord's Avatar
Posts: 73 since Apr 2014
Thanks: 27 given, 64 received

Wouldn't it be a little foolish not to?

Scenario #1 - whatever that is

Scenario #2- Opposite

Try not to be overly fond of either one.

Take notes and keep a record. Over time you will probably start getting better at reading what you are seeing. The point isn't to be right ( although that helps $$$ ) it's to learn and have your backup plan in place because you have already gone over it.

Reply With Quote

Reply > Futures Trading, News, Charts and Platforms > Traders Hideout > Index Futures Trading > Is market forcasting wrong??

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

An Afternoon with FIO trader bobwest

Elite only

NinjaTrader 8: Programming Profitable Trading Edges w/Scott Hodson

Elite only

Anthony Drager: Executing on Intermarket Correlations & Order Flow, Part 2

Elite only

Adam Grimes: Five critically important keys to professional trading

Elite only

Machine Learning Concepts w/FIO member NJAMC

Elite only

MarketDelta Cloud Platform: Announcing new mobile features

Dec 1

NinjaTrader 8: Features and Enhancements

Dec 6

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
What is wrong with this code? dennisconn EasyLanguage Programming 4 August 18th, 2014 10:57 AM
Forecast for 2013: Market Predictions Will Be Wrong Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 January 11th, 2013 02:40 AM
Why Bill Gross Is All Wrong on Stock Market: Wharton's Siegel Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 July 31st, 2012 06:10 PM
Wrong gift kbit Jokes 1 February 15th, 2012 05:26 PM
Why So Many Market Experts Made Wrong Calls This Year Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 December 25th, 2011 06:10 PM

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:21 AM.

Copyright © 2016 by All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts

Page generated 2016-10-22 in 0.10 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP