Keep it simple and observe/learn how the market auctions back and forth. Try to identify who is in control.
If short term is in control then market will balance, in that case fade the market at the edges.
If longer term is in control don't wait for large rotations, just get in and go with trend, don't fade it.
Don't be greedy and look at every trade as $$$$
Don't be afraid and be so fearful that you keep missing the opportunities
Finally - once you understand the auction, stop thinking and just trade.
Is this how you are trading @DbPhoenix? I'm not sure if you're being serious or cynical :P
I'm finding that the theory of relativity disproves any usage of indicators - assuming that each scenario/trade setup can only be evaluated in context, then every new moment must be evaluated in current context, and is somewhat dismissing the previous moment's context.
I further hypothesize that the prior moment's context has an exponential decay in relation to the current moment. You know, the usual weighted value hypothesis. Our memory decays, so current memories have more weight than more distant memories.
Then again, I'm on a post-workout euphoric high right now lol
Last edited by FABRICATORX; July 24th, 2015 at 06:08 PM.
Reason: Clarifying my thoughts
What I said was in reply to the two posts that were deleted. But it still stands. And as this is a trading thread and not a journal, I see no reason not to pursue it.
"Trading price" means exactly that: trading price. Not MAs nor indicators nor envelopes nor bands nor "pivots" nor anything else drawn by a computer, including candles. No, not even bars.
This is not to say that the trader can't plot anything he likes on his charts. No one's going to break down his door and shoot 'im. But it bothers me that so many people think they're trading price when they're not. Then when it doesn't "work", trading price gets a bad rap.
Trading price is the "newest and latest", like candles were twenty years ago. I can't say why, unless it is that traders have been futzing with the dozens (hundreds?) of indicators and bar/candle mutations and time displacements all this time and none of it has worked out as advertised. They go on for five, ten, fifteen years or more just getting by, if that. And the movement of price remains a complete mystery.
So you can probably guess that my answer to your question is "no".
But (there's always a "but"), whether lines have any value or not depends in large part on how far out into the weeds the trader is. He may very well need a line to pull himself back onto the straight and narrow. He may then need a line to keep him there, like the white stripe down the middle of the road. But the line he chooses to draw must be based in market realities, not on something that resides primarily -- or only -- in his head, just as the white stripe on the road has to follow the road: it can't wander off onto the shoulder and into the next county through various fields and pastures.
Eventually, though, he will be able to negotiate the road without any lines at all, as with many country lanes. He'll be able to look at a chart and see whether price is trending or ranging and, if ranging, how wide the range is. He'll be able to see at what levels buyers aren't willing to go and at what levels sellers aren't willing to go. He will then have some idea of what to do about it. How quickly this can be learned depends partly on desire and partly on how much has to be unlearned. If the trader's cup is full (with misinformation of various sorts), then whatever he attempts to learn with regard to trading price will just spill onto the floor. If on the other hand his cup is empty, he's good to go, which is one of the chief reasons why beginners find this so easy to understand (the other is that they have not yet learned to be afraid).
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In answer to your question, yes. I haven't used indicators of any sort for years. Nor do I attempt to mangle time. And it can be assumed that anything having to do with range bars or CVBs or volume displays, much less colors, are likewise not part of my universe.
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Young traders -- and many not-so-young traders -- look at the market through the wrong end of the telescope. They begin with what is, then look backward to see how we got to this point. If one starts at the beginning, though, with the tape, then much of what this generation of traders relies on becomes irrelevant: volume, bar intervals, indicators, even charts.
What we do now has been the way of things for less than twenty years. But markets have been around for thousands.
As for reading all my posts, the pdf below would be a lot faster:
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