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Trading the SLA/AMT Intraday

  #51 (permalink)
 DbPhoenix 
Phoenix AZ
 
Posts: 470 since Dec 2012


Abde View Post
Hi @DbPhoenix,

Many thanks for uploading the documents - which I really appreciate! And surely many others too.

For any reason, I´m not able to see the images in your Demand/SupplySP document (see attached screen shot).

Would you be so kind to upload it as a PDF ?

Abde

I'm unable to convert it to a single-page pdf with the program I have. If anyone else can do it, I'll be happy to send them the *.docx or some other Word format so that they can convert it. (This is not something I want to spend a great deal of time on; one would think after 20 years that this stuff would no longer be an issue, like the continuing battle between Apple and Microsoft.)

The pictures aren't necessary, of course. They just make it more fun. There seems to be very little fun in trading these days. Something else that's changed since the 90s.


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  #52 (permalink)
 dalebru 
Indianapolis/IN
 
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DbPhoenix View Post
I'm unable to convert it to a single-page pdf with the program I have. If anyone else can do it, I'll be happy to send them the *.docx or some other Word format so that they can convert it. (This is not something I want to spend a great deal of time on; one would think after 20 years that this stuff would no longer be an issue, like the continuing battle between Apple and Microsoft.)

The pictures aren't necessary, of course. They just make it more fun. There seems to be very little fun in trading these days. Something else that's changed since the 90s.

It appears that the images are still on your hard drive, as they are linked rather than embedded. If I'm correct, converting to PDF wouldn't help. Here is a link showing how to convert all the images from "linked" to "embedded".

microsoft word - Transform linked images to embedded images - Super User

Yes, the .docx file size might become very large. The only way to ameliorate that would be to use some software to make your images smaller (lower-resolution). One simple way to do that is to use the snipping tool to make a snapshot and paste that into the .docx instead of linking the image.

I offer all of this with my normal money-back guarantee.

Thanks for sharing the documents and your insights.

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  #53 (permalink)
 DbPhoenix 
Phoenix AZ
 
Posts: 470 since Dec 2012



dalebru View Post
It appears that the images are still on your hard drive, as they are linked rather than embedded. If I'm correct, converting to PDF wouldn't help. Here is a link showing how to convert all the images from "linked" to "embedded".

microsoft word - Transform linked images to embedded images - Super User

Yes, the .docx file size might become very large. The only way to ameliorate that would be to use some software to make your images smaller (lower-resolution). One simple way to do that is to use the snipping tool to make a snapshot and paste that into the .docx instead of linking the image.

I offer all of this with my normal money-back guarantee.

Thanks for sharing the documents and your insights.

Thanks for the help. Apparently none of this works with "Word Starter" (I stopped paying for Word/Excel years ago as I never used Excel anymore and I rarely used Word except for opening old docs).

But, as I said, the only purpose to the images is to make it more fun. There are no charts.

  #54 (permalink)
 
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 trendisyourfriend 
Quebec Canada
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  #55 (permalink)
 DbPhoenix 
Phoenix AZ
 
Posts: 470 since Dec 2012


trendisyourfriend View Post

Thanks for the help. I'll look at it after the session is over. But before anyone else spends any more time on this, as much as it's appreciated, I'm going to try to convert the whole thing to an image file. It's not that long.

  #56 (permalink)
 DbPhoenix 
Phoenix AZ
 
Posts: 470 since Dec 2012

This should be good enough. I may not be an expert on Office, but I do remember a bit about back doors.

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Trading the SLA/AMT Intraday-demandsupply.pdf   Click image for larger version

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  #57 (permalink)
 DbPhoenix 
Phoenix AZ
 
Posts: 470 since Dec 2012

From 2004:

Quote from sulong:

Yes I'll use whatever time interval that might help me get a grasp on what might be going on in the here and now.

One thing, I'm not sure if the type of information I'm recording, is the right kind of info, that will be or is, beneficial.
I think it is, at least in regard to light V on a pull back, after a heavy V directional move.


Are you referring to a "replay", using 5 min bars, or real time, or both?


Quote from dbphoenix:

Only you can decide what's beneficial to you and what isn't as that won't be the same for everyone, which is why comments such as "trading off 1m charts is a waste of time" or "scalping is a waste of time" or "the ADX is a waste of time" and similar comments can be taken with a grain of salt. It's up to you to decide for yourself what's a waste of time or not, even if I tell you that something is a waste of time

I don't know that going through this exercise with a longer bar interval will open a window or not. It may not, though I don't think it will be a waste of time . The experience may trigger something later, like tomorrow, or next week, or next month. But I do know that you're going to continue to have trouble seeing what's in front of you until you back off a little and look at the forest, the "big picture", the "gestalt".

Perhaps you're working under what you think is a truism that there is one best opportunity for entry during the day and that, if you miss it, you're done. If that's what you're doing, you may be correct about the former. There's plenty of time to debate that. But there are nearly always multiple opportunities to enter trades during the day since there are nearly always multiple setups to take advantage of.

Therefore, don't be quite so jumpy about getting in there as early as possible and taking what is in any way acceptable. Let traders show their hands. That's part of what volume analysis is all about, since traders will indicate by their trades what they expect to see happen or what they want to happen or what they may even cause to happen.

As for this morning, did you feel that you were getting enough information about what traders were doing? Did you have a definite idea of what was being tested? Was whatever information you were getting good enough to persuade you to enter just minutes before an imporant report?

Look at the bar that accompanied the report. There's no follow-through, suggesting that the selling is over, at least for now. Is there enough here to give you the confidence to go long? How do you know price won't make another U-turn and continue to fall? What's being tested, if anything? Would you rather wait until you find out what happens at the test of the opening high? Will you go long if we make a new high?

Yes, it can be confusing, because you're not talking about just volume and the relationship between a given volume bar and a given price bar, but about your strategy, your tactics, the setups you look for, your risk tolerance, etc. And all of this is whizzing by while you're trying to evaluate everything and decide whether or not to make an entry and there's no time.

Which is why it pays to pick your spots well ahead of time, consider using a longer bar interval, and just wait to see what happens. If you know exactly what you're looking for, exactly where you expect to see it, and exactly what you plan to do about it if and when you see it, then you can be a spider and just wait for it. Otherwise, you are much more likely to become confused by all the twists and turns and end up doing the wrong thing at the wrong time, missing the real opportunity when it presents itself.

So scroll back to today's pre-open and go through it all again using a longer bar interval, bar by bar. Yes, you know what's going to happen, but that can't be helped. If you can't block that out, then choose some chart randomly from a month ago and go through the exercise that way. Then the next chart. Then the chart after that. You won't remember what happened on any given day a month ago (or two months ago), and though you won't get a sense of the pace of trading, you will at least be able to avoid "hindsight" to a large extent.


An example from Friday:




  #58 (permalink)
 DbPhoenix 
Phoenix AZ
 
Posts: 470 since Dec 2012

Another example, from this morning. Context is essentially the same re the weekly, daily, hourly, etc.





  #59 (permalink)
lajx
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Db one question I saw your post for Trading activity for today, and although in hindsight the entries look clear I am struggling to follow the Price action, because in some cases the RET is not clear enough and maybe I am discarding the position too early, in any case here is the day. Any comment is welcome.

BTW: Thanks for the updated PDF. Regarding to the way how I discard the position I took as reference your image in the SLA pdf (also attached)

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  #60 (permalink)
 DbPhoenix 
Phoenix AZ
 
Posts: 470 since Dec 2012



lajx View Post
Db one question I saw your post for Trading activity for today, and although in hindsight the entries look clear I am struggling to follow the Price action, because in some cases the RET is not clear enough and maybe I am discarding the position too early, in any case here is the day. Any comment is welcome.

BTW: Thanks for the updated PDF. Regarding to the way how I discard the position I took as reference your image in the SLA pdf (also attached)

The entries always look clear in hindsight. That's one reason why so many people pooh-pooh hindsight charts (I guess they never do trade reviews). It is imperative, therefore, that you make a distinction between what you can know in real time and what you can know only in hindsight. Otherwise this sort of review will only get you in a great deal of trouble.

There are several ways to play this according to the trader's objectives, which takes us back to Developing A Plan: what kind of trader are you? What kind of trader do you want to be? (To those who click the link, the docs are fixed later on). If you're still afraid of price, you're going to be tempted to take quick profits and even trade the 5s. Taking quick profits is not necessarily a bad thing in a low volatility environment. But trading the 5s can and probably will be a disaster, particularly if you haven't put in the observation time to understand what the 5s -- and a tick chart -- represent.

So, if you've read what I've written about approaching the session, you know that there was no particular support below the open, or at least none that I could see. So I left price alone to tell me what it wanted to do. But even if there had been anything worth noting below the open, entering 1 or 2m past the open is not wise. Except in hindsight. Price then bounces up. It makes a swing point, which enables me to draw a demand line (although one doesn't have to actually draw it). When that demand line is broken, switch to the 5s if you like to get a clearer picture of what traders are doing. I put "unreasonable" at the first entry because I didn't think anyone who hesitates would be able to take it, though clearly that's the best entry. If it seems as though you could have taken it, determine where your trigger would be, where the danger point lies, then decide (all in a matter of seconds) if the trade is worth it. If it is, you can't crap around. You have to act. If you're not sure, don't.

After that, you ought to be able to see how the 5s and the 1m interact. But you should also see that where the 5s would be likely to throw you out, the 1m would keep you in, and you want to stay in as long as possible. Swing points, HLs, LH, DTs and DBs can all be detected in real time. So can line breaks. Reversals and continuations, however, are not so easy. For that you'll have to do the work that Gozilla did to give you some guidance as to just how far price can break one of these lines and still stage a continuation, and how far is so far that the probabilities favor a reversal. Though the data collection and analysis can and has to be done ahead of time, the decision as to what to apply and how of course has to be done in real time. And fast. If you're in a situation where it can go either way, you have to be prepared either to change directions rapidly or bracket the trade to avoid being left facing the wrong direction.

As for when the supply line stretching down to the 0950 low gets broken, it's time to refer back to the 5s to get a better entry. Otherwise there's nothing on the 1m unless you take the ret -- or what you thought was a ret (you'll have to determine exactly what qualifies as a ret for you) -- that you took, and then get stopped out, and then get so bummed that you miss the HL. However, if you consult the 5s, you'll see that there's a ret at "4", one that you can see in RT and quickly run the DP calculations for. If you take it, there's no reason to exit, even if you hold through the pace fall-off. And if you want to stop, you can always put a stop below all this and walk away. You can't know what price is going to do after you quit, but there's no reason to exit just because you're tired of sitting in front of your computer (given the experience you have with the NQ, you know it can drift for hours midday, which it does right after that spike at 1100).

As for your chart, too many lines, too many hinges, too much looking for excuses to exit and re-enter because you're still afraid of price and you haven't done the fine work to determine exactly what you're going to do under any given set of circumstance. You're handing the reins to the market and letting it pull you around. You have to decide exactly what you're looking for in an entry and exactly how much room you're willing to give it. If your blood runs cold and your hands get clammy and you're looking for the first sign of trouble as an excuse to end the trade, then you haven't done enough observation, sorry to say, nor enough simming. In this case, if you had entered at "4", that shakeout at 1026 would not have come anywhere near you. Could you know that in advance? Of course not. But what you could do in advance is plan for it as well as plan for your re-entry, if re-entry seemed prudent.

Again, there is not just one way to play this. The trader has to decide what he wants and do it BEFORE the session begins so that he's not making decisions in a state of fear. If you get tired of sitting through that 50-minute go-nowhere range between 1010 and 1100, know what you will do about a stop underneath all this so you can walk away from the machine. And if you happen to be around at 1100 and see that spike, decide where you're going to place your stop so that you can either leave until the close or focus on a different instrument.

You may still be focusing on lines and bars rather than price. Perhaps having a 5s alongside may help relieve your anxiety as you would at least not be having to guess at what traders are doing. If you look at the Friday charts I posted, you'll note that even a 1m bar can have several swings within it. If you're still not cognizant of this, a 5s chart will help you focus on the movement of that right tick. Once you're focused on traders' behavior, you'll be better able to exploit it.

Incidentally, for you and for anyone else who happens to read this, there's a lot of information in those Friday charts regarding activity and pace and compression/expansion and springboards. Being aware of all of that and what it means can provide for much safer and tighter entries.


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