Or the market and your tactics were not compatible.
A grinding morning. If one didn't want to get caught in ranges or chop and didn't want to use wide stops, there wasn't much for him today. What was more interesting were the levels at which price choked, such as the top of the opening hinge, or the bottom of the gap from Friday.
So, yes, technically this has been a trend day. But Jeez!
This is the sort of day that encourages one to increase the width of his stops. Consider carefully before doing so.
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Thanks Db for your feedback, is much appreciated as always.
But I have one question regarding to the PA of the last few days or weeks and its behavior, maybe it is related because we are in the summer period?, what is your appreciation from your expertise and point of view regarding to “Sell in May and go away”, I mean not only for the phrase but for the dynamic in this period of the year?
Funny you should ask as I just ran across this in my files yesterday:
Yale Hirsch, the publisher of "Stock Trader's Almanac", looked at the last 50 years and showed that if an investor put $10K into the S&P during only the Nov-April period his compound investment would have grown to over $360 K. However, a similar investment over the May-Oct period would grow to only $11.5K.
One could come up with all sorts of reasons, but the most practical has to do with changing one's tactics just for this season then being faced with the prospect of changing them again in September. Whether or not one pursues this course is a personal choice. I don't. But then I'm lazier than most.
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At this level, the trader achieves an almost Zen-like trading state. Planning, analysis, research are the focus of his time and his effort. When the trading day opens, he's ready for it. He's calm, he's relaxed, he's centered.
Trading becomes effortless. He is thoroughly familiar with his plan. He knows exactly what he will do in any given situation, even if the doing means exiting immediately upon a completely unexpected development. He understands the inevitability of loss and accepts it as a natural part of the business of trading. No one can hurt him because he's protected by his rules and his discipline.
He is sensitive to and in tune with the ebb and flow of market behavior and the natural actions and reactions to it that his research has taught him will optimize his edge*. He is "available". He doesn't have to know what the market will do next because he knows how he will react to anything the market does and is confident in his ability to react correctly.
He understands and practices "active inaction", knowing exactly what it is he wants, exactly what it is he's looking for, and waiting, patiently, for exactly the right opportunity. If and when that opportunity presents itself, he acts decisively and without hesitation, then waits, patiently, again, for the next opportunity.
He does not convince himself that he is right. He watches price movement and draws his conclusions. When market behavior changes, so do his tactics. He acknowledges that market movement is the ultimate truth. He doesn't try to outsmart or outguess it.
He is, in a sense, outside himself, acting as his own coach, asking himself questions and explaining to himself without rationalization what he's waiting for, what he's doing, reminding himself of this or that, keeping himself centered and focused, taking distractions in stride. He doesn't get overexcited about winning trades; he doesn't get depressed about losing trades. He accepts that price does what it does and the market is what it is. His performance has nothing to do with his self-worth.
It is during this stage that the "intuitive" sense begins to manifest itself. As infrequent as it may be, he learns to experiment with it and to build trust in it.
And at the end of the day, he reviews his work, makes whatever adjustments are necessary, if any, and begins his preparation for the following day, satisfied with himself for having traded well.
*the knowledge gained through research and testing that a particular market behavior offers an acceptable level of predictability to provide a consistently profitable outcome over time.
(from Bo Yoder, Vad Graifer, Mark Douglas . . . and me)
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I've been asked more than once what the point is of including the weekly trend channel when one is preparing for the day and trades a 1m interval.
Today is an excellent example of why.
Unfortunately for NQ traders, the ES has reached the lower limit of its channel and the NQ has 50pts to go, which may account for this bounce. Whether the NQ will actually reach its lower limit while the ES treads water is unknowable, but they aren't always linked, so keep an open mind.
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I was not sure how relevant the hourly channel was with price spending most of the overnight beyond the upper extreme, if price can break higher the next point of interest would be last weeks high and the ONH, probably a little late in the session to be thinking about this though.
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While channels may have been a factor, remember that few people see them but you. This can be a strategic advantage or it can be a rabbit hole. The story today was failure, and as it all took place long before the open, it was a done deal. The challenge was what to do about it. If AMT were to deal the hand, the choices were limited.
I don't know how this site is about "real-time calls" and "hindsight trading" and "couldawouldashoulda". Chart review is essential, but I don't want to get into the usual arguments about this stuff. If we can, I'd like to review the chart. But I'm done with fighting about it.
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