This is an excellent question, and something I have been thinking hard about (not necessarily about what you are talking about, but about the importance of the first 15 minutes from 7/19 and onward). I think we will have to see what kind of volume the new first 15 minutes will show. I expect that we will see low volume until the OSE and TSE open for trading at 9:00. If that is the case, then we might as well ignore the first 15 minutes in the same way most people ignore the entire overnight session of the ES prior to the open of the NASDAQ and NYSE.
Last edited by mangolassi; June 21st, 2016 at 06:48 PM.
Could anyone recommend me to any good volume profile analysts for this nikkei contract? Looking for something similar to the daily analysis Futurestrader71/ DionysusToast / Verniman's provide. Any good twitter follows?
daily chart of Nikkei index vs USD/JPY, see that it correlates strongly to the USD side, and anything that happens to the dollar tends to get reflected in Nikkei price. There are short periods where dollar is not dominant in Nikkei and it roughly follows what other major indices are doing, but generally is you follow the dollar you can trade the Nikkei.
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This is true of any market, not exclusively the Nikkei. High impact news reports are avoided by most traders. The USD/JPY pair action is not a primary cause of movement on the Nikkei. There is correlation, but you should not be watching the USD/JPY chart to understand movements on the Nikkei, especially if you are intraday trading. The key is to avoid trading on high impact news for at least several seconds to minutes. You can literally show the same correlation with several other instruments altogether - it doesn't mean you should be watching all of those charts to figure out what's going on. "Correlation doesn't imply causation."
If you are worried about slippage, then do not trade during high impact news. For a discretionary trader, it is extremely difficult to gauge volume during these events. During normal market activity, if you are worried about slippage, you are trading huge size. I'm sure the N225K can handle several hundred contracts in a single order with little or no slippage, but I'm not trading this sort of size. If someone else can share their experience trading huge size on the N225M, that would be helpful.
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Who trades that size lol RTH limit bid & offer average size is between 200-400 & 300-600 the high side
As for news its pretty light really, the worst you get is about 150-250 at the nearest price on Kuroda's speech
except BoJ rate decision & recently Brexit, you only see 20-50 limit orders each side. Everyone is hitting at market
but really the contract is so cheap the big guys can level through mountain & canyon of hidden orders easily with size
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