Let me clarify my outlook for the week not to mislead anyone...

I still remain moderately bullish. As in... Prices should still maintain at mean to above mean into late week.

However, I am switching to short trades off extreme overbought into resistance. The risk/reward ratio is better. It's unlikely the market will explode into new highs when people are expecting it or watching the market. If we make new highs across the board, it will probably be on a gap up, or catalyzed by the jobs report or something.

I was curious what was with the DOW outperformance...

The DOW had much higher momentum levels than the other indices during the high velocity portion of the recent rally. The after effects are still hanging around. Eg, buyers are still being attracted to the DOW because of it's recent outperformance.

Like flies to honey... Probably a lot of the money going out of the bond market is being attracted to those big blue chips.


The S&P is still hanging in there at 1.52, and Nas 100 at 1.47.

Still going to be a lot of bids heading toward this market for a while preventing collapse.

meanVelocity 

Let me clarify my outlook for the week not to mislead anyone... I still remain moderately bullish. As in... Prices should still maintain at mean to above mean into late week. However, I am switching to short trades off extreme overbought into resistance. The risk/reward ratio is better. It's unlikely the market will explode into new highs when people are expecting it or watching the market. If we make new highs across the board, it will probably be on a gap up, or catalyzed by the jobs report or something.

Eventually the sky will fall in on everyone. But to say it every day, is a bit boring. No one is listening.

mrmuggins 

Eventually the sky will fall in on everyone. But to say it every day, is a bit boring. No one is listening.

Every single rally that has ever happened eventually goes into correction, and every single bull market eventually transitions into a bear market.

Also, every single bear market eventually transitions into a bull market, and every correction transitions into rally.

There is a 100% probability of those events. It's just a question of when. I don't actually expect the next major collapse until Jan/Feb. But, a small corrective event is very likely over the next few weeks.

Ok, that's it... Pulling shorts. Market doesn't seem to want to drop much from the morning rally tops.

I gave that one quite a bit of time to work... Was pretty confident a morning rally would sell off, but it refuses to drop much. Still, made some ok $$ at least.

Maybe we can get new highs again on beige book for another short setup.

This bounce was probably caused by all the smart bears spontaneously covering their shorts right there... Heh...

If it was going to drop, it had to drop hard and fast as soon as that lower side of that range was broken.

meanVelocity 

If we close at 2060 or better on the cash tomorrows resistance moves to 2070 area, with retest of highs possible but worse odds than a coin flip unless we get a news catalyst. Switching back to shorting tops if we rally out of the gate. The market reversed to the upside too soon so it's not going to be that strong.

Well, that was today's plan... Fade bounces at 2070 +... Don't really have any thought into late day except... Fade new highs "if" we get them on Beige Book.

Big "If"... Time to SOH... "Sit on hands."

Sigh, everyone is being a bunch of wusses today...

They have the memory of yesterdays late day slide in the back of their heads, so they are acting cautious and are not pushing the market into full overbought...

Meh...

I guess everyone knows people like me are just sitting here with their fingers next to the short button waiting for 74+ on the cash...

Those bulls are not falling for it today! Booo...

The problem is... Without people going into Euphoria and overextending the market... There is not much fast and easy downside potential.

Uptrend rate is at 0.21 points per 25 minutes on the fives, and 0.9 points per 75 minutes on the fifteens.

That is pretty absurdly slow... But, volatility is a bit absurdly low.

I'm out... Risks are too high this late in the day. Markets get kinda random into the last thirty minutes unless there is strong momentum as big players reposition for the next day into higher late day volume.


Hopefully we can break through those buy stop order pockets just above overnight... After that, it will be safe to short highs.