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And, I'm going to sleep... Here is a full quote from my blog.
"A market is the composite psychology of all of it’s participants. Their emotions, their beliefs, and their future perceptions. This is what drives supply and demand and shifts prices.
When you are trading short term, you are trading the behaviors of the participants in an instrument… The intrinsic value of the instrument is irrelevant unless you are a medium to long term investor.
This is why I would recommend new traders to have a singular focus on a single trading instrument. Each trading instrument has different groups of people with different behaviors. Also, the people in the instrument may be more rational and cautious or high stakes speculators."
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Ah, I got a feeling this is going to be a great trading week. Expecting a volatility expansion starting Monday, then trading ranges should be up and holding at normal by Wednesday.
2050 is the support area I am looking at for tomorrow.
LoL... We get a trading range in the first five minutes of Sunday open that is as big as the entire previous week.
At first I was like... *Blink blink, was that a feed glitch?* As I noticed that in the background as I was posting my previous post.
I'm not expecting us to make it this low, but it is possible we could head down to the area which is a retest of prior highs. But, the 2045-50 area on the cash is most realistic at this moment.
Here is an exact explanation of what just happened on the open.
The market FINALLY pushed down and went through the bottom side of the range. Big stop pocket was taken out. The market naturally rebounded as those who instigated the move took profits, and others bought in thinking "Ah, just a stop takeout, time to run it to the upside now."
Price is now settling out into a normal trading pattern.
We hit my support levels. I'm not extremely bullish though.
Cautious dip buys in support levels only. Tomorrow we could start to setup for a real solid rally... If we get a late session panic or morning panic tomorrow.
The pattern this morning in tech was identical to the one last night on the S&P/ES.
Stop/risk controls wiped clean in a mega-spike. Instigators covering shorts, dips buyers assuming the bottom is in, then return to trend/normal trading pattern after a couple waves.
Those v-bottom moves are very hard to trade.
Markets would move much differently if the exchanges didn't allow stop/buy stop, sell stop, and etc orders. However, the orders could be still done client-side or server-side so the point is kinda moot. Those fat tail spikes must be expected during reversals.
This is one of the most interesting market paradoxes... The use of risk controls in trading by market participants creates tail risks. Risk control creates risk!
Whenever a rally continues straight upward without retraces for a number of days, especially a parabolic late stage rally... You can generally assume their is a trailing stop pocket building up.
It's just like the giant risks banks have created... By insuring themselves against the failure of others... They have insured that they will all fail simultaneously. That is the bottom line of why Lehman caused such problems in 2008.
