I see some traders are exclusively trading NQ and some exclusively trading ES.
This is not a wise way of trading .
The 4 index emini: NQ,ES,YM and TF are not equal.
There is always a strongest one and a weakest on the same day.
For example, On Friday NQ was the strongest and YM was the weakest.
So if you go long on Friday you long NQ, and you go short you short YM.
This way you catch right move you profit more, and you catch wrong move you lose less.
Last edited by wmwmw; February 15th, 2015 at 11:33 PM.
That's probably right. The problem is that it's difficult to split your attention between different things, in real time when they are changing rapidly. Also, the different markets behave differently, as you mentioned, and once you are used to one, it may be difficult to quickly switch to another.
That's why many people will stick mainly to one, even though they may miss an opportunity by doing so. You could also lose opportunities by trying to be aware of all of them at once. Sometimes a compromise for the sake of practicality is necessary.
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It is not difficult.
You can decide it in a few seconds.
One point NDX=3.7points DOW
So you can look at how much NDX and DOW go up or go down to decide which one is ahead.
Another way is to look at their intraday charts,if one breaks new high and the other does not, you know which one lag.
In that case, by all means pursue the strategy that you think is the best. You may be completely right. However, not everyone who thinks otherwise is necessarily wrong. It takes many viewpoints to make a market. Some even know how many NQ points correspond to how many YM points, and can even read the highs and lows of charts.
I am not surprised about the relative point values of the indices, nor about which have new highs or which don't, but I am surprised to read that this is supposed to be news to me. The relationships between different markets can be important, and the significance of those relationships is always a matter of interpretation, including whether a relationship will continue or not. But that is a matter of interpretation of the future meaning of a present fact, not of whether someone can read a chart or not.
It remains that some people will want to specialize in one instrument or another, and they may, or may not, want to use the relationship that it has to another instrument in their trading decisions. Whatever works, for each trader, is what is right for them.
Anyway, that's what I think about it. Other people can think as they like, and I'll learn from them, or not, depending on what I see in their views at the time.
Good luck with the markets, as you see them.
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Would you mind posting the cash trades you took that execute this strategy, say over the past two weeks?
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Look at all four eimini quotes right now.
YM is down 14.35 points compared with fair value.
NQ is down 1.78.
SPX is down 2.84.
TF is up 0.77.
(go to cnbc.com Pre-Market Data for emini quotes, I am not allowed to post the link for emini quotes)
So the signal is telling us NQ will be stronger than YM and TF will be the strongest one on Tuesday.
From my experience, the quotes at this time before market are usually about 70-80% chance right prediction for Tuesday.
After market open 15-30 minutes, if they still hold this relationship, then the relationship will be 90+% chance valid for the whole Tuesday.
On the other hand, if you set up daily charts of four indices, you will be able to see NDX has been the strongest one since last Tuesday and other 3 indices has been weaker. So the chance is NQ will still be stronger and TF has a chance to become stronger on Tuesday. I will long NQ (if I am going to long)and will pay attention to TF on Tuesday.
Usually the gap between each index will become wider as the day going,for example,on Friday if you long YM at 10:00 am and hold position to close you would be about even and if you long NQ at 10:00 am you would win 20 points at close.
Last edited by wmwmw; February 16th, 2015 at 08:59 AM.
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All my trades were based on this strategy for many years and I guess posting my signals for the coming days will be more convincing.
I pay close attention to the relationship between index.
From 1/27/15 to 2/9/15, during the 10 days period, DOW is the indices leader. I mean whichever the day Dow was stronger than NQ, the day would be closed up. Whichever the day DOW was weaker than NQ, the day will be closed down. So my trades during this period was just following YM and if YM stronger I long YM and YM weaker I short YM on the day. It was 100% correct during the 10 days.
Since 2/10/15, NDX took the leader and I switch to NQ.
Last edited by wmwmw; February 16th, 2015 at 01:53 PM.
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In general, you should choose a indices leader to trade, just like YM during the 10 days(the period I mentioned above).
Because the indices leader not only hint on market direction, it also offer better risk-reward.
Say if indices leader's intraday chart shows it would go up in the next 1-2 hours, but other indices chart show otherwise, the true market direction would go the indices leader's way.
If ES intraday chart suggests market will go down later, while indices leader's chart say otherwise, there is great chance that your ES chart pattern will be broken and it will be bought up by indices leader.
For recent years, most time NDX is indices leader.
So I think trading NQ is better than trading ES if you want to choose one index to trade exclusively.
Last edited by wmwmw; February 16th, 2015 at 12:08 PM.
For a beginner like me, it is always suggested to concentrate on one thing first. This is will help one to concentrate and trade accordingly with descipline and patience. When your account is grown, continuing the current efforts you can check more instruments.
The First Aim Is "Survival"
Second is "Consistency"