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On the hourly we broke the AWN low yesterday and tagged the AWR low during Globex and today. From there we rallied back to test the AWN low again and have closed around it.
Yesterday we got the first close below the 5 SMA of the Pascal channel since this last bull leg started. Today we open well below the envelopes and rallied back inside. We have also had a 2% pullback from the high, first one this last leg.
Overall neutral bias at the moment as I expect some range behavior until we get a good buy signal. (I realize that today could be the start of that signal).
Down from yesterdays rally, forming a wedge at the weeks VAL.
The pascal isn't too bullish at the moment. It has failed to get back above the 5 SMA. I am still neutral as I expect range behavior. Looking to buy the lows and sell the highs.
Even though the range is large, we have been ranging all week. Big downs and big ups. Overall still neutral until we get some bullish signal on the day. (Again if today forms a strong bull it could be a pullback buy, or a second entry long.)
EDIT: Just looked at the daily again and we had a range last week, this week was a breakdown of that range that has since been rejected twice.
We have tested the AWR low twice this wee, both time have seen a large rally back to the weekly POC / VAH.
Daily was unable to close above the 5 SMA again. Major rejection of the highs and a nasty grave stone doji on the day. Bearish case is increasing on the daily.
Globex daily chart, we have flirted with the previous trendline. The top black line is another MM from the previous two black lines (Early 2014 TR). I am looking at the 50 SMA at 4120. I am also looking at the 4200 level, I almost expect that to be tested ON.
This could be a larger bear flag that is forming on the daily...
Possible bear channel forming. 12/1 - 12/5 was a flag that formed and the week and broke on 12/8. Now we have formed an even larger flag on this week. Today's price action has formed a bear flag at the bottom of this TR and channel. This flag should break up. If it fails to break up it will break down for a measured move the size of the flag which would put it sub-4200. Either are possible.
Price failed to even get over the 5 SMA, we are getting close to getting a Pascal sell signal. I believe the high of the day will need to be near the lower envelope to fire the signal.
Overall I am still neutral, but the bear case is increasing every day. But obviously every selloff is bought. If that changes we could see a good move down. I think if we do go lower, we will do so until price becomes attractive enough that the BTFDers come in strong again.
Personally I believe this should happen next week and set up the Santa Claus rally.
Friday sold off and closed well below the AWR low. We have also closed below the possible bear channel. We are now sub-4200. I expect this to be bought back into the channel during globex.
Friday was a break down of the week's range. I expect this to be bought back to test the 5 SMA. We are near 3% pullback from the highs.
I laugh at CNBC because they keep asking if this is the 10% correction. Like they forgot the correction we just had in October.
AWN high test and rejected, AWN low broken, channel broken. Testing Globex low now.
5SMA tested, M-CP tested, Breakdown of last weeks TR is holding at the moment. Sub-4200 now, I think we will form a triangle here over the next few days. Possible flag.
Good chance low of day is in. Almost looking like a Higher Low MTR on the day, or some kind of double bottom here. That could be a good signal for the rest of the week to be up.
