No I am saying to have an idea where price may go before you enter the trade. You should know your entry, exit, and stop before you pull the trigger. Now you can let your winners run and try and get a better exit, but you should have a general idea of where you want to take profit. That gives you an idea if you trading is working correctly.
I see trading as 'Financial Science'. I take technical analysis, price action, market profile, whatever else and create an hypothesis about what price may do. Then I take a small about of risk capital to test it. Once I have determined my entry and pull the trigger, I only have 3 task: Cut losers quick, Manage my risk, and try and maximize my profit.
All of the market profile training I have is based on webinars from @FuturesTrader71 and general observation over the last 6 months. (Market profile doesn't drive my trading, it provides context which is very important to deciding how to trade at certain times during the market cycle.)
Last edited by tturner86; August 20th, 2014 at 11:42 PM.
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I have a lot of respect for FT71! did you buy his paid webinars, or just the ones here on futures.io (formerly BMT)?
So you would predict price to turn at certain S/R levels? and that is where you would have your target?
Recently I have been using Fib lines and ATR Calculations for targets. I dont trade the big swings you do, but I guess you could call me a 'semi-scalper', I have a tiny account. (maybe I will switch to forex pairs or a cheaper future's contract) .
Yes, you look to buy at support and sell at resistance. In a move minor levels of s/r will fail until it hits one and pivots. If you are flat, wait for the pivot or a pullback. It will take time to determine what is a major or minor level of s/r. Sometimes they pivot sometimes they don't. If they don't pivot, they become the opposite. So if it was resistance and it breaks it, it now becomes support and you may be able to enter on a pullback to the level your were watching.
I do not use Fibs personally, but I have used them to determine potential areas of interest. My main s/r levels are Yesterday high, low, and close. ADN high and low, ADR high and low. Vwap and its standard deviation bands, and the Pivot point, Control Point and Direction Point. I look for price action patterns around those levels and then trade it accordingly.
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Budfox, it doesn't look to me that you did enough of solid work in your first year, as you are basically where you started. The two options you have now are these: keep asking for answers and spend another year testing every single advice you've been given; or take responsibility and start thinking on your own (a useful skill anyway in trading). No-one here is smarter than you, and even if they are, intelligence is not directly correlated with trading success.
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I have to disagree with the 'where you started' part. I knew jack about trading the ES a year ago, now I know substantially more (and eager to learn even more).
Yes financially I am at the same place ( or slightly worse), but in terms of skill set I am definitely improved. Not to pat myself on the back, but I did spend a year trading the ES, which of course will provide one with experience.
Like I mentioned before on another thread, learning to trade is hard for me, b/c everyone gives you conflicting advice, and there is NO structured curriculum, such becoming a lawyer, doctor, accountant, where you go to school, write the exams and pass the bar and next thing you know you are in a court room.
In trading there are no sequential steps (ie. sign up for a scammer coach, demo trade, trade a cheap contract, then trade a more expensive contract, then buy a ferrari etc).
There are so many decisions and avenues. Should I be mechanical or discretionary? should I trade ES or forex? Should I use Market Profile or ACD? It's like walking in a dark forest you dont know where you going.
Being in a university learning the above mentioned professions versus sitting at home on your laptop talking to strangers on a forum (and reading books) results in an obviously significantly slower learning curve.
I want to increase my learning curve (and I am a very patient individual).
Of course I want to 'think on my own', but I don't want to think the wrong ideas on my own. Make sense? (ie. trade in a silo)
I hope you don't take this post as a sign of unappreciation. Thank You.