Realistic attainable " 95% " of the time on average Targets?
Again, these " expected " Points via Targets on these Index Futures, is from a few years ago, so they could be Way off. The target of 4 points on ES is roughly 1/3 of the ADR from the ES back when this article was written. So it assumed the ADR was 10 - 12 points. . Given todays current Markets, the ES's ADR is probably more in the 15 - 17 point range. The information I have, says that for an expected move ( from the point of Entry ) to an attainable target that is achieved at a rate of 95% of the time, that the ES will move 4 points ( not straight up like an arrow of course ) , but that it will reach to or near a move of 4 points, without a substantial Pullback or a Trend reversal during the course of that 4 point move. Does this sound realistic ? Now, I'm not sure what timeframe(s) or Indicators ( if any ) the author of the article stating this used . You would have to trade on a longer timeframe ( Swing type timeframe chart(s) vs a Scalping ( lower timeframe ) of course, as the moves on the LTF charts, can be quite erratic. Take a 5000 tick or even 6000 tick chart on the ES for example, the moves, when entered correctly and at double bottoms/tops , wedge patterns, etc... the moves from these setups and patterns, seem more often than not, to move in upwards of 3-6 points before they reverse or consolidate ( not accounting for the huge swings that can occur when big news comes out, like the Fed or non Farm ) . I will admit that, assuming that something can ocurr over and over again at a sucess rate of 95% in the markets is far fetched, but even if it ocurrs 70% of the time with a projected 4 point move using larger timeframe charts, I'll take it . Anyways, just wanted to get fellow members opinions on this, and also if these Targets being reached from Entry point seem likely to be reached before a likely Reversal/ strong Pullback ( in any given, 1 days worth of trading ).... Here are the projected Targets that I calculated, Basing these other Indexes Targets from the ES's 4 point ( based on an ADR of 10 - 12 points ) and that is " HIit " 95% of the time from the Article )....... NQ = 7 points TF = 4 points YM = 80 ticks GC = $7 CL = .60 cents Opinions and comments please Thanks much - Michael
I suggest you take the information you have developed and spend some time with charts and validate, verify or quantify your thoughts, before you apply them to a trade. I don't mean for this to sound harsh, you should be credited for developing an idea for your trading and I can appreciate getting 2nd opinions. You can get all kinds of opinions from others who may or may not know but in the end it is only your opinion that matters.
Best of luck to you.
"Money is better than poverty, if only for financial reasons." - Woody Allen
Last edited by Tasker_182; November 20th, 2013 at 11:22 AM.
Reason: tone adjustment
Thank you Tasker_182 and I aplogize about that fourtiwinks . Here's what I was trying to Refrence.......... I read a trading article about 2 years ago, that stated that the ES will move 4 points ( up or down ) 95% of the time. Now, it did not factor in when and where you entered, nor did it specify what Timeframe chart(s) to trade off of, to hit a 4 point target at a 95% success rate. I have found out, due to many hours of watching the ES and backtesting , that a move ( of 4 points ) is reached, quite often, when price bounces off of double/triple bottoms andstrong support and vice versa for shorts, at double/triple tops and strong resistance . You have to trade higher timeframe charts though, as lowertimeframe charts will always have many pullbacks and consolidations ( even if the move is a strong move to the up or downside ). The Longer timeframe charts " Filter " out all that noise. Since I'm stating the numbers and percent that was written on the ES , some 2 years ago ( which back then the average Daily Range was some where between 10 - 12 points a day), I'm sure the AverageDailyRange of the ES is now Different ( I'd say it has an Average Daily Range of around 15 - 17 points now days ). Hope that helped clear some of it up.
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Please break up your post with paragraphs so it is easier to read, if you want people to read it.
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