Very interesting question! It may be hard to know with certainty if the non-public trading volume has an impact on analysis or strategies that utilize volume data. My instinct tells me that it probably does have some impact; however Iím not sure if itís meaningful enough to be concerned with.
The reason someone would be concerned with volume is because they think volume has some sort of impact on price (which may or may not be true). If volume is increasing without changes to price, then the location of the volume increase is irrelevant. At the end of the day, changes in price are all that matter, not volume.
Thinking about it from an arbitrage perspective: if prices within a dark pool begin to change without the on-exchange price changing, then arb traders would begin buying/selling at each venue to narrow prices (which increases volume in both venues). On the flip side, if prices on and off exchange match, then thereís no opportunity for arb traders, so volumes shouldnít be impacted. There is a trading opportunity here, but good luck competing with the ultra-fast arb guys!
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