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ES Unfair Advantage


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ES Unfair Advantage

  #221 (permalink)
 
dario1's Avatar
 dario1 
Ontario, Canada
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT
Broker: IB
Trading: gold
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trendisyourfriend View Post
For the ES i use 60 minutes

thanks trendisyourfriend
and yes 60m chart is in my toolbox that were my pivots are calculated as well
thx

For today
R3 1424.50
R2 1418.33
R1 1412.16
PP 1403.33
S1 1397.16
S2 1388.33
S3 1382.16

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  #222 (permalink)
 
dario1's Avatar
 dario1 
Ontario, Canada
 
Experience: None
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Posts: 404 since Jan 2012

the only key news for today is 08:30 Revised Non farm Productivity
and looks like this may upset the market

Started this thread
  #223 (permalink)
 Abde 
Stuttgart / Germany
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: FlatTrader
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trendisyourfriend View Post
For the ES i use 60 minutes for the initial balance (9:30-10:30am EST). This is a standard and consider range extention has been established when price makes 4 ticks outside of the IB, some people use 3 ticks for range extention.

@trendisyourfriend, @dario1,

I found that the most powerful OR´s are the first 5 minutes (first reaction), the first 15 minutes (time span for executing the overnight orders) and the last 5 minutes of the first hour.

  #224 (permalink)
 
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 dario1 
Ontario, Canada
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT
Broker: IB
Trading: gold
Posts: 404 since Jan 2012

So based on the current NY Opening Hour trend, which was down
We should expect the following
2) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move
Expect a counter-trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move in the first 45 to 60 minutes
UP


(3) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias)
DOWN

(4) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move
Depends on the Post-Lunch Move

Btw, the Morning move is on the way as we speak -- I’m just slow in typing and finding free PC with Internet at work

Started this thread
  #225 (permalink)
 
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 dario1 
Ontario, Canada
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT
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Posts: 404 since Jan 2012


Abde View Post
@trendisyourfriend, @dario1,

I found that the most powerful OR´s are the first 5 minutes (first reaction)


Yes, you’re right but sometime the move is so volatile one could end up with nasty surprise



Abde View Post

the first 15 minutes (time span for executing the overnight orders)


interesting – I have to look at this more closely





Abde View Post

and the last 5 minutes of the first hour.

This is the part when usually (as I’ve labeled) the Morning Move is on the way which is counter to the NY Opening Hour move

Started this thread
  #226 (permalink)
 Abde 
Stuttgart / Germany
 
Experience: Intermediate
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dario1 View Post
Yes, you’re right but sometime the move is so volatile one could end up with nasty surprise





interesting – I have to look at this more closely






This is the part when usually (as I’ve labeled) the Morning Move is on the way which is counter to the NY Opening Hour move

@dario1

I draw the first 15 minutes manually and for the first 5 minutes and the last 5 minutes of the first hour, I use an indicator called DDF (Daily Directional Forecast). If you are interested at it, let me know.

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  #227 (permalink)
 
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 dario1 
Ontario, Canada
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT
Broker: IB
Trading: gold
Posts: 404 since Jan 2012

So far so good
we even had a 10:45AM - 11:45AM Delayed Morning Move
-- expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move -- around 10:38AM

so now we’re waiting for 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move
– expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias)

let’s see how this going to play out today
D






dario1 View Post
So based on the current NY Opening Hour trend, which was down
We should expect the following
2) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move
Expect a counter-trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move in the first 45 to 60 minutes
UP


(3) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias)
DOWN

(4) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move
Depends on the Post-Lunch Move

Btw, the Morning move is on the way as we speak -- I’m just slow in typing and finding free PC with Internet at work


Started this thread
  #228 (permalink)
 
dario1's Avatar
 dario1 
Ontario, Canada
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT
Broker: IB
Trading: gold
Posts: 404 since Jan 2012

12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move
What a beautiful move down
– who knows maybe this is the beginning of the one that all the bears are waiting for
What do you think Fadi?






dario1 View Post
So far so good
we even had a 10:45AM - 11:45AM Delayed Morning Move
-- expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move -- around 10:38AM

so now we’re waiting for 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move
– expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias)

let’s see how this going to play out today
D


Started this thread
  #229 (permalink)
 
dario1's Avatar
 dario1 
Ontario, Canada
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT
Broker: IB
Trading: gold
Posts: 404 since Jan 2012

Recap -- Wednesday, September 5, 2012


And again a picture tells a thousand words:



1) 9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move (DOWN 6pts)
Market develops its trend or bias for the day
This move is important as a reference to what is going to happen later in a day


(2) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move (UP over 8pts)
Expect a counter-trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move in the first 45 to 60 minutes


(3) 10:45AM - 11:45AM Delayed Morning Move (DOWN nearly 6pts)
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move


(4) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move (DOWN 6pts)
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias)


(5) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move (UP 4pts)
Expect a counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move trend if the market is testing the high or low of the day.


(6) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move (DOWN nearly 3pts)
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm,
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend if a counter-trend move occurs before 3:00pm

Started this thread
  #230 (permalink)
 
dario1's Avatar
 dario1 
Ontario, Canada
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT
Broker: IB
Trading: gold
Posts: 404 since Jan 2012


Key news

08:15 ADP Non-Farm
08:30 Unemployment Claims (USD)
10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD)
10:30 Natural Gas Storage (USD)
11:00 Crude Oil Inventories (USD)

Based on the scheduled news i.e. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI we should expect a counter trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move around 10:00am
-- Let's wait and see...

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Last Updated on September 7, 2012


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