ES closed Friday at 1340. What level will the SP500 hit first from here? 1450 or 1250?
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Just to be on the subject with last MP webinar, this is my tought about your Poll. Since the area 1250 was last hit (beginning Jan 2012) there have been several Naked POCs and Gaps, the market was not interested in fading them and seemed to continue its upward rally uptoday. I don't know how much higher we can go from here but I would be looking for signs of long exhaustions and short the market consequently, following, for example, Michael Jardine's studyies on Virgin Poc's Ensign Software - Studies: Price Histogram POC. It does not answer neither questions of your poll but I think it's an interesting insight.
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Breadth has been consolidating since mid December, these are always tricky , hard to say if breadth is negatively diverging as we climb ever higher, or getting ready for another move up, either way it's a coiled spring and the move will be a head turner when things pick up again...one thing to keep an eye on is Transports $TRAN, doesn't seem to be playing along , and is the backbone of the economy ....
also a healthy market backs and fills, AAPl has gone parabolic $CompQ has like 50 point gaps
We are up into a supply zone. Looking for a pull back. Looking at larger time frame (wkly). But this is not a fresh level , we have tested this level for a second time. Since we have been in an up trend, could expect a pullback possibly to the 1250 level area, then continue up to next supply level which is up to the 1450 area. Based on looking at the weekly chart. Gotta keep watch the on "Greece " debacle.
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Good points here. Price forecasting is usually a waste of time. The best thing to do is have a game plan for whatever the outcome may be. You could make a case for both directions although I don't see the numbers themselves being of any significant level to look out for. Either way, you can look at different things for potential outcomes.
I believe, looking at the big picture is helpful but it's important to remain open minded about which way the market is going. Don't ever say this market is too high or too low because it's going to do what it wants and doesn't care about opinions.
Looking at the weekly chart on the ES, you could say that we've technically broken out of the bearish trend line from the last swing high but haven't had a close above those levels yet (on a weekly basis). This could signal a trap for longs as they think the market is going to rip higher. I know a lot of funds have been selling into strength up here which means they're selling to the potential suckers (again). That's not to say a top is in of course but good to observe that.
There really isn't much above us volume wise and would be interesting to see what happens from here. Europe isn't solved by any means yet and Greece is acting like a sub-prime borrower dodging it's creditors which isn't a good sign. Then we have Spain, Portugal and Ireland still to worry about (PIGS) with a few other surprises in there I would imagine. Maybe they kick the can down the road more and the market continues to float higher but I'd be very cautious at these levels. If anything take some risk off and just wait and see what happens going forward.
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