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This trade did make me some money but did not hit my stated target. That said, The 41/42 area was based on an area of prior support resistance(draw a line on a smaller frame chart and you'll see what I mean). At the time I posted I also expected a small jump up to that area because it's a fairly normal occurrence that it will just crack above and then drop...
The target(31.6) was based on a calculated retracement of a prior move which 95% works out...this time it didn't....
Those that may have watched this play out did see the drop after getting to the 41 area but it only dropped to 32.8
It did run back up to almost 42 and dropped again to 36.8 and that was it. I got PA telling me to flip and go long both drops and once it broke over 42 I knew the short idea was completely out.
I'll try to post a more in depth explanation of how I come up with some of this stuff and maybe some more on this trade in particular because there are some other factors I haven't mentioned but, I have explained a lot of it earlier in this thread but could elaborate some more.
Pardon my ignorance but what exactly is that chart...70 point chart?
I'm not familiar with this.
BTW, I'm thinking if you see 1125 you will also see 1220 before it would turn around. I'm not seeing 1125 as being significant...maybe missing something
A trading friend of mine turned me on to the idea of using the 70R chart as an intermediate time frame. Cleaner than a Daily or 60 Min. You can visualize the waves and get larger swing targets using it.
I had been using a 1000T or 1618T chart for visualizing the intraday S/R. I think the 70R is cleaner.
I always trade using range charts. They tend to give you a better visual representation of the wave patterns.
1125 is just an intermediate target on the way to 1100 or lower.
Until the last two days, the TF has been in a massive short squeeze / False breakout for almost the entirety of Oct . That can't go on forever.
There hasn't been any significant supports built since the August spike low. The previous higher low of Sept 30th shows a lot of weakness. While we could go to 1220 before the year is out, I think we're going to go lower first. That spike low of August is just too juicy not to test. It really depends on how the big boys want tomanipulate it.
I was wrong. Looks like they are not going to let this market get a healthy correction.
The TF will probably top out in the 1165 range today/tonight. Then pull back to go higher.
If they keep the foot on the gas, it is probably going to the 1227 soon.
The weekly chart puts the upper targets in the 1338 area.
I don't think it is healthy for the overall market. They are hell bent on running this market into a brick wall at 100 mph. What the hell, I'll just trade what's in front of me.
You sound like me bitching about the lunacy of all the bad news and the markets keep levitating and or rising...one of theses days it won't come back so quick. It's all the fed, the only thing that matters these days. For the time being we are seemingly back to bad news is good news in that the fed is less likely to raise rates based on the crappy numbers coming out.
...one of theses days it won't come back so quick. It's all