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Thanks BM, doing well, spending more time getting out and doing other stuff....everyone told me to get off my butt and go outside.
Actually I'm glad I got prodded to do so after moving around some I realized that the sitting around to much turned me into a potato. I now truly believe that sitting is deadly. I'm back in shape now but couldn't believe how out of shape cardio and stamina wise I was...I thought I would have a heart attack or something just doing small stuff.
It's been good....I have an easier time trading it compared to the others. I've been quiet around here for a while, been helping my brother start a new business and spent some time in Cabo and after seeing BM's Ecuador pics think I might spend some time there sipping margaritas on the beach.
I haven't posted as much this year because of everything else but will start getting more active around here in a couple months.
We find it truly extraordinary that anyone is surprised the financial system is under duress again.
After all, what have the Central Banks accomplished in the last five years?
1) Did they clear out the bad debts that caused the 2008 collapse? NOPE
2) Did they implement structural reforms to insure another 2008 didn’t happen? NOPE
3) Did they punish fraud or corruption in any way to insure that the system was clean? NOPE
So what did they do?
They cut interest rates over 500 times and funneled over $10 trillion into the financial system, over 98% of which went to the very players (key banks) who nearly blew up the world in 2008.
And people are actually surprised that the system is back in trouble again? Would you be surprised if giving another shot of heroin to a drug addict who was in a coma didn’t bring him to health?
Honestly, did anyone think this would really work? I know that the connected elites loved it because the whole process allowed them to hand off their garbage investments to the public while leveraging up to acquire more assets via the Fed’s cheap money… but what about those who DON’T work for a top 20 global financial institutions? Did anyone actually believe this would work?
So here we are today, Europe’s already insolvent banks are now potentially on the hook for $3 trillion in Emerging Market investments.
When your entire banking system is leveraged at 26-to-1 it really doesn’t matter who you lend to… you’re bust. But in this case, the bad emerging market investments are just the icing on the rotten cake that is Europe’s banking balance sheets.
Hopefully Mario Draghi can “promise” something again and the whole system will hold together. After all, THAT and Bernanke’s decision to engage in more and more QE (despite NO evidence that QE benefits the economy) are what brought us back from the brink in June 2012… maybe Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi can repeat this.
Then of course there’s China… which has created the single biggest credit bubble relative to GDP in history. Nevermind, that they literally blow up buildings to build new ones to pad their GDP numbers… China is a miracle and its economy is on the verge of becoming another US.
The world believes China can become more driven by consumers… though the data shows consumer spending has grown by 9% a year for 30 years there… so hoping that things are going to erupt higher there is a little misguided.
And of course there’s the US, which is STILL printing $65 billion per month despite two QE tapers… which folks claim were terrible for the world (how exactly is printing $65 billion per month five years into an alleged recovery, a good thing? Doesn’t that NEGATE the entire claim of a recovery at all?).
You can build a house on a rotten foundation (bad debt, fraud, corruption) and it will stand for a while. But eventually it will collapse.
This will again happen with the markets. The only difference is that this time around, the Central banks have already spent most if not ALL of their ammo propping up the system.
Actually I think they have plenty of ink left for that printer...Yellen I'm sure will be INCREASING QE in the not to distant future. Getting the timing right for buying this dip is all I'm trying to figure out.
Edit: I do agree that ultimately it's likely to implode but after thinking about it for the past couple years I think they can keep it propped up for a few more years. I don't pretend to know all the answers or any of them for that matter but, I'm thinking that because most everyone else is economically messed up(and a few other things) we'll be able to skate this out for a while.
For the past few years I've held the view that it will collapse here in here U.S. but despite all the "bad" news they manage to keep us afloat....
I pretty much align myself with Schiff and others that think the fed will with whatever time frame just keep printing more and more until it just doesn't work anymore.
I have managed to trade what I see and so forth(Last year my best ever by far) but I am mindful of what I consider manipulated numbers, changed formulas for computing data and so on. I still can't get over how Wall Street seemingly goes with the prints and headlines and ignores reality.
I guess I'm waiting for the day they really wake up.
Just felt like a little rambling here...wife is tired of hearing it.
Stock market analyst Tom DeMark spends many weekends in his home office in Scottsdale, Ariz., pondering the fate of the markets. The founder of Market Studies studies the price movements of stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, and indices to try to determine where things may be headed, and investors pay for the privilege of knowing his thoughts. DeMark has thousands of subscribers to his company’s service through Bloomberg, and he has served as a consultant to Leon Cooperman and Paul Tudor Jones in the past. His only personal client at the moment is SAC Capital founder Steven Cohen, who has retained DeMark for 15 years as a special adviser.
This past weekend, DeMark says, his prognostications for the stock market started to look rather bleak. His Dow Jones Index chart covering the period from May 2012 to the present seems to be tracking, almost precisely, the months leading up to the 1929 stock market crash.
“The market’s going to have one more rally, then once we get above that high, I think it’s going to be more treacherous,” DeMark says. “I think it’s all preordained right now.” He feels this is probably irrespective of how and when the crippling impasse in Washington is resolved. “If you look at the new highs and new lows on the [New York Stock Exchange],” he says, “every time we made a higher high, there were fewer stocks in the index participating in that high. It’s getting narrower.” And once that happens, you typically get a collapse. The opposite looks to be true for gold, which he expects is making its low right now and should start to move up dramatically.
“I’m not afraid I’m going to be wrong,” DeMark says. “I’m just saying it’s something to consider.”
This guy was on CNBC Wed. morning this past week....As he uttered his bearish comments the futures were trading 1741 and put in their low for the week and eventually rallied 50 points in the ES. So much for his inflection point. He was in NY for a seminar and I am sure it was not cheap. I imagine his followers got stopped out on Thursday or Friday or else are staring at globex right now in disbelief. Here is the link.
