TF thread (Russell 2000) ... anything goes - Index Futures Trading | futures.io
futures.io futures trading


TF thread (Russell 2000) ... anything goes
Started: by kbit Views / Replies:85,019 / 1,073
Last Reply: Attachments:264

Welcome to futures.io.

Welcome, Guest!

This forum was established to help traders (especially futures traders) by openly sharing indicators, strategies, methods, trading journals and discussing the psychology of trading.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading forums:
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive on our forums.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendor advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in openness and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, it is not something tangible you can download.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.


You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free and simple, and we will never resell your private information.

-- Big Mike

Reply
 264  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

TF thread (Russell 2000) ... anything goes

  #601 (permalink)
Elite Member
Aurora, Il USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Favorite Futures: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,853 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,292 given, 3,327 received

Weekly Charts: S&P Is Not the Summer Place to Be

A frequent theme in these notes has been that sideways equals sidelines with the whipsaws of a sideways trend tough to predict and equally tough to trade despite the hype that traders love “trading the range” up and down.

Maybe this is true of the best traders but for most traders – and chartists – it is most sensible to make note of a sideways trend by attempting to identify its bottom and top and something that is tough to do until after the fact, and one of the big reasons trading the range is advised against, while patiently watching those whipsaws and waiting for the sideways trend to break. It is possible to try to call and trade the tactical moves within the range but such calls should be couched by the unpredictability of the range with flexibility to abandon a tactical call completely if appropriate.

In looking at the weekly chart of the S&P, there’s another reason sideways equals sidelines unless you are short and that is the fact that it appears the next big whipsaw will be a serious swipe down in the sideways trend and one that started yesterday and so perhaps this is as good a time to do the silly and what was warned against above and to take a stab at the possibly dangerous tactical trading within the current and very wide sideways trend.


“Wide” really needs no explanation with the two-year sideways trend comprised of two huge rallies and one correction with the other correction to come should this trend hold as is likely based on the more minute technicals as follows.

First, the S&P is trading in a confirmed weekly Spike Top that carries a target of 1285 and right near the bottom trendline of what was identified as a Symmetrical Triangle in yesterday’s note and this Spike Top should fulfill within days and probably into the EU summit as was suggested yesterday too.

Second, the S&P is trading in that massive Symmetrical Triangle and one that presents bearishly due to the Head and Shoulders pattern that can be made of it with both patterns carrying roughly the same objective of 1112 on confirmation of 1267. It is due to the H&S that it seems less likely to break up toward it 1577 target and probably as unlikely that the S&P will try to trade back up to the top trendline of that pattern near 1353 should it trade down toward the index’s 200 DMA as seems likely.

Third, these relatively small technicals aspects come in the context of what appears to be a decent Double Top that confirms at 1075 for a target of 728 and a pattern that promises, at a minimum, the equalizing correction to come while putting constant bearish pressure on the S&P’s chart.

Put otherwise and as consistent with the analysis of last Friday’s Another Sideways Summer for the S&P, it appears that the S&P is set to make a major swipe down in the sideways trend with much of the technical evidence pointing to the possibility that it will be broken to the downside rather than setting up another move up in the volatile trading of an ultimately bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern.

Such a diagnosis appears to be confirmed by the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index that is showing a weak weekly Spike Top of its own that will close the gap at 50.60 to set up a move down toward 40 at an absolute minimum.


This sort of a potential move down by the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index to 40 supports the S&P breaking one of the many inner ranges of its two-year sideways trend at 1267 to work on the bottom of another range near 1170.

Interestingly but not too surprisingly the likely drop to come in the S&P first to 1285 and then 1267 and then probably 1170 as one tactical move down in the sideways trend in early-to-mid July is supported by the weekly chart of the VIX as well.


Besides showing a confirmed and bullish Falling Wedge within its two-year sideways trend that carries a target of 48, the VIX is now showing a weekly Spike Bottom that confirms at 21.98 for a target of 27.19 in potential trading that would set up a Double Bottom with a target of nearly 40. Maybe the VIX trades back down slightly today or tomorrow to close a daily gap at 19.37, but overall, the VIX looks ready to take off higher and probably much higher.

It is for the sum of all of these technical reasons that the weekly charts say that the S&P is not the summer place to be.


Weekly Charts: S&P Is Not the Summer Place to Be

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to kbit for this post:
 
  #602 (permalink)
Elite Member
Aurora, Il USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Favorite Futures: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,853 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,292 given, 3,327 received

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Daily Ichimoku for those interested....can't make heads or tails of it right now but I still expect it to bump into the cloud somewhere. Still showing a bearish future

Reply With Quote
 
  #603 (permalink)
Elite Member
Kampala, Uganda
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: TOS
Favorite Futures: RUT, SPX
 
Boomer34's Avatar
 
Posts: 156 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 73 given, 54 received


How's the morning coming for you guys?

Big jump after those home sale numbers hit...

Reply With Quote
 
  #604 (permalink)
Elite Member
Aurora, Il USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Favorite Futures: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,853 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,292 given, 3,327 received


Boomer34 View Post
How's the morning coming for you guys?

Big jump after those home sale numbers hit...


Since you asked...long at 764 out at 768....waiting for next setup
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to kbit for this post:
 
  #605 (permalink)
Elite Member
Kampala, Uganda
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: TOS
Favorite Futures: RUT, SPX
 
Boomer34's Avatar
 
Posts: 156 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 73 given, 54 received

Futures Edge on FIO

Which products do you trade?

 

kbit View Post
Since you asked...long at 764 out at 768....waiting for next setup
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Very nice

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Boomer34 for this post:
 
  #606 (permalink)
Elite Member
houston
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: nt
 
Posts: 407 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 266 given, 269 received

Support

Someone's guarding 767.8 with their life.

Reply With Quote
 
  #607 (permalink)
Elite Member
Kampala, Uganda
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: TOS
Favorite Futures: RUT, SPX
 
Boomer34's Avatar
 
Posts: 156 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 73 given, 54 received


HighRise1202 View Post
Someone's guarding 767.8 with their life.


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Yep...and the break of that nice triangle was a good little pop down...

Reply With Quote
 
  #608 (permalink)
Elite Member
houston
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: nt
 
Posts: 407 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 266 given, 269 received


Boomer34 View Post

Yep...and the break of that nice triangle was a good little pop down...

How far will it go?!?

Reply With Quote
 
  #609 (permalink)
Elite Member
Kampala, Uganda
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: TOS
Favorite Futures: RUT, SPX
 
Boomer34's Avatar
 
Posts: 156 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 73 given, 54 received


HighRise1202 View Post
How far will it go?!?


Well...we just saw a nice little pullback to the 768 level...but you have R1 right below at 767...so not much wiggle room. It will have to pick a direction soon...or just chop

Reply With Quote
 
  #610 (permalink)
Elite Member
Kampala, Uganda
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: TOS
Favorite Futures: RUT, SPX
 
Boomer34's Avatar
 
Posts: 156 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 73 given, 54 received


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Here is the little pullback to that 768 level after the break

Attached Thumbnails
TF thread (Russell 2000) ... anything goes-627tribreak2.jpg  
Reply With Quote

Reply



futures.io > > > > TF thread (Russell 2000) ... anything goes

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

2016 True Edge Awards: Voting is open until Jan 21!

Now
 

Anthony Drager: Pulling the trigger with confidence

Elite only
 

Leo Murphy: The Art and Science of Technical Analysis

Elite only
 

FuturesTrader71: Ask Me Anything

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Tick Data (TF, Russell 2000) momop540 The Elite Circle 29 May 13th, 2014 06:46 PM
How to set my chart properly for the RUSSELL (TF) trendisyourfriend Index Futures Trading 11 September 28th, 2010 09:55 AM
BruteForce-Mini Russel 2000 Zoethecus Trading Journals 17 July 14th, 2010 01:17 PM
FF allows the THREAD STARTER to ignore posters so they can NOT post in their thread. TheRumpledOne Off-Topic 2 September 19th, 2009 01:53 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:23 PM.

no new posts
Page generated 2017-01-20 in 0.15 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.145.218.90