Just taking a quick look around....all I see is 778.9 as being a spot and maybe at 781.9 if that didn't hold tight.
One down below at 753.2 so.....My guess is that we get up to the higher spots and then work our way down.
Actually if you recall I have been looking for a short at 778.9 for a little while now so I'm going to look seriously for something there and then if/when it rolls over we should see some pretty good downside (more than just 753.2).
Edit: I expect it to at least hit 781.9 before we get a sustained drop so if I see it falling before that I will still consider a long up to that.
After fulfilling its recent Head and Shoulders pattern by hitting 1292, it seems that the S&P is now quite vulnerable to the downside on the Bear Pennant discussed at length last week.
Should this pattern remain good, it is likely to cause the S&P to drop closer to 1300 at some point today or tomorrow while preventing the index from rising above last week’s high of 1328. This Bear Pennant confirms at 1292 for a full target of 1162 and this pattern is most progressed in the Nasdaq Composite and perhaps the index to watch around whether it might work or not in most equity-related charts.
But the reason to look at the S&P’s Bear Pennant is above is shown in the weekly chart of the VIX that is showing a potential Pipe Top pattern that confirms at 19.98 for a target of 14.82 and a possibility that suggests the S&P’s Bear Pennant will fail, as all of the equity Bear Pennants fail, to a possible Falling Wedge that is the extended version of the Bull Wedge pointed out a few weeks ago that confirms at 1374 for a target of 1422.
On the other hand, reason to believe that the VIX’s Pipe Top will fail is shown by the confirmed Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern that remains confirmed above about 21 for a target of about 31 and a level that probably matches the S&P’s Bear Pennant hitting its 1162 target or thereabout.
Watching the VIX today, then, may provide important clues around how the S&P will trade in the days and weeks ahead with its weekly chart supporting the bearish outlook to suggest that the VIX’s Pipe Top will fail.
Based on the candle set-up of the last two weeks, it is very difficult to see the S&P defying that apparent heaviness and something that probably means the S&P will not rise above last week’s high of 1328, and certainly not 1351, but rather trade sideways between 1292 and one of those two levels before cascading down on the Bear Pennant and a pattern that presents as a Descending Triangle in the weekly chart. In trying to see what could cause the S&P to rise from its recent lows to take out those aforementioned levels is very challenging in weekly form with the Falling Wedge not showing well if at all.
Overall, then, and despite the VIX’s complicated chart, the S&P is headed for 1162 sooner rather than later.
This may come as a surprise, but this is actually not true. What is true is the charts of the financial markets analyzed in this work are bearish, have been bearish – overwhelmingly bearish – for years and will remain bearish until the risk asset inflation trade of 1995 to 2007 made possible by the world’s disgusting 30-year borrowing binge is flushed from the financial markets and this requires either a crash or a severe correction with the difference being around tempo and timing.
Also true is the fact that I would be prefer to be bullish being an optimist and a mainly happy person by nature as is probably pretty evident on TV even as talking about these horribly bearish charts that point to a pretty uncomfortable fundamental “what” to come. That “what” is a severe global recession, or possibly a depression, and one that should have stuck around from the Great Recession but was eased by the extraordinary liquidity efforts of the world’s central banks and most notably the Federal Reserve.
Such easing of the dis-ease created by the natural consequences of the world hitting the finite limits of its balance sheet, and something that is verbally and visually detailed in last July’s Why QE3 Is Inevitable, was the appropriate treatment relative to the potential condition of a prolonged global recession and/or depression because without the Fed’s aggressive actions there is little question in my mind that we would be in a global depression right now and the S&P would have dropped to the 100 to 425 target of its severe Double Top from the last decade and the impetus to all of this work.
It’s not that I want to be bearish, but the charts were overwhelmingly bearish back in 2007 when first stumbling upon that pattern that pointed clearly to a crash and the charts are about as bearish today and this is why pretty much every chart analyzed in these notes is bearish. Even though it will take a crash or correction to get there, I truly look forward to the day when it is possible to look at the charts and see genuinely bullish patterns that are not a reflection of the Fed’s stimulus and charts that match an economy that has corrected for all of that debt of the last 30 years to support old-fashioned organic growth that is not dependent on the government. In fact, my favorite charting over the last few years was my bullish call in late 20120 on the QE2 Rally and it was an excellent lesson to have learned that I should have stuck with my first instincts on the gruesomely bullish IHS reaction to last August’s correction and a pattern that delivered on Operation Twist and last December’s LTRO with the latter making the real near-term difference.
Fed policy and global central bank liquidity actions are unlikely to make the long-term difference, though, and this takes us to a relatively near-term look at why the financial market charts remain so bearish today.
It’s not easy to look at that long-term monthly chart of the Russell 2000 honestly and admit that it is trading in a nice Head and Shoulders pattern just as it did back in 2006 through 2008, but this is the truth and it is highly likely that its current Head and Shoulders pattern will confirm by cascading through the neckline near 602 for a target of 335 and actually a bit lower than its 2009 low.
Similarly, it is not fun to look at the chart of the XLF and the ETF representing the financial sector and point out its severe Broadening Top that will very likely confirm near $10 for a conservative target of $5.
Nor is it enjoyable to turn to my favorite index – the S&P – and talk about its relatively small but still devastating Double Top pattern with its long-term Sideways Trend Channel suggesting a drop below 2009’s lows even though the Channel allows for another peak near 1550 before its likely-to-be-devastating decline.
Frankly, it is exhausting at times to write about these charts exactly as each presents in an inescapable long-term context and it would be more fun and less tiring to write about charts that only wanted to go up but that is simply not what’s showing right now.
What’s showing are overwhelmingly bearish charts that suggest all of that bad debt and over-borrowing of the last 30 years must be cleaned from the system completely and not just tucked away in some sort of SIV or sitting on balance sheets forgotten and a cleansing that will be accompanied by a recession at best.
This means that all of the S&P’s sideways slop trading in April, May, perhaps June and July as was the case last spring and summer for 3% up here and 8% up there is unlikely to amount to much in the perspective of a long-term monthly chart that is legitimately calling for a 30-50% correction and one that could be a real crash if it comes quickly on some unfortunate and “unseen” even out of Europe. For better or worse and ultimately for the better, this sort of cleansing correction is confirmed by the long-term charts of the other equity indices along with the CRB Index, the VIX and the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index and it appears likely for this year or next.
And so some may call me a bear, but the real bear is roaming in these charts leaving tracks that are too hard to ignore even though it might be temporarily easier to do so.
Just FYI, I don't post in this thread simply because I am too cheap to pay ICE for Russell data. I think they made a stupid business decision, and even though I get Russell from my broker feed, I have everything setup to use IQFeed. And because of the decision made by ICE last year, or two years ago (?), I would have to pay for the privilege of receiving TF data.
Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.
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I hear and understand...further, you're not alone in making that choice.
I still trade it and bend over on the fees because it just suits me better than the other indicies....believe me I think the fee thing sucks and don't blame anyone for walking away.