Your not bugging anyone..ask anything you like or make any comment you wish....no problem here.
That's a hard question to answer only because tick bars only print after the designated number (in this case 2000) of trades have occured.....time is irrelevant so on real slow days where there isn't much trading going on a 2000 tick bar might last 20 minutes and on busy days they might last 5 minutes....during news events like NFP at 8:30 a bar can be printed in a second as an extreme example.
All that being said I would say on average lately it's in the 10 minute area, but that is a bit misleading only because in the first couple hours of the session they are like a 5m bar and in the afternoon more like 15 or 20m.
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This is a daily Ichimoku
The TS is at 795.6 at the close today and will be somewhere around 794 I think at the open of tomorrows candle which would in my view mean that around 793 might be a good short entry....after this opens I'll get an exact number.
That's just one option...some could argue for already being short.
Aside from all that and just looking at where we are/closed today, I suspect we're going down and at the moment I have 752 as a target...( look at 780 as bieng the significant number here) naturally there will be bumps along the way and those I will figure out in the next post.
It seems unlikely that any sideways slop bullish play that was showing itself to me in the equity index charts in the form of Bull Wedges comes into fruition any time too soon considering that the extended versions of those patterns – Falling Wedges – simply look ready to fall to Broadening Tops and Head and Shoulders patterns as is shown rather well with the Dow’s Broadening Top below.
This bearish pattern took the Dow briefly sideways with sudden death now seeming a reality with the pattern’s required top and bottom trendline touches in as it confirmed on a closing basis today dropping below 12711 for a target of 12083 with there being some shot the Dow goes down to 11800 for a 5%-type decline in the weeks ahead and one that will cause the Dow to dip back down below its 200 DMA as seemed likely based on the Russell 2000 back in early March.
Such a potential drop is the least of the Dow’s worries or that of the Nasdaq Composite, Russell 2000 or S&P when the bearish Rising Wedge that led to those topping patterns is considered with the S&P’s pattern confirmed for its target of 1075 and a potential drop of nearly 20% from today’s close.
Returning to the possible rescue of the Bull/Falling Wedge, who knows and who cares if it works at this point when considering what came of last year’s similar patterns and the reason a partial or complete fulfillment toward 1415 to 1422 has been labeled sideways slop that was best to be avoided and particularly now with the unmarked H&S fulfilling toward its 1292 target and that Rising Wedge good to go.
Supporting the 200 DMA dance at a minimum in the S&P is the $BPSPX that is set for 50 if not 40 with its dive through the 200 and 40 looking a lot more likely than 50 and probably even 20 standing a better chance of being hit than 50.
In turn, this probably means the S&P is going to fulfill its H&S and then a bit more to drop down below its 200 DMA to then find a bid and bounce for a bit or simply head down on that bearish Rising Wedge.
It is the VIX that supports either scenario too with the Symmetrical Triangle/Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern showing as confirmed to the upside for a target of about 27.5 and just above its 200 DMA while its bullish Falling Wedge is confirmed and good to go up toward its target of 48.
Whether that Falling Wedge fulfills in one shot as happened in 2010 or in two as was the case in 2011 is to be seen but its fulfillment on a radical spike higher toward 48 will be seen this year as the S&P drops down toward the 1075 target of its Rising Wedge.
And it is all of these technical aspects that suggest getting ready for the Q2 200 DMA dance by going defensive, getting short or just sitting this one out on the sidelines.
In light of the stupidness that unfolded today all I'm looking at now is 772.5 as a spot that needs to hold to get us back to 778.9
776.3 might be a bump or a wall between those two....other than that just winging it
Tomorrow should be real interesting with the Facebook thing going on....I think all the talking heads are saying the market will go up.... because of this a red flag pops up for me on this.
You know what happens when everybody says it's going up.....
Maybe it will though because the 752 we hit might offer enough support for tomorrow.
758.7 looks like a spot that that if we got over could run us to the 766.5 area and then we have to see what would happen from there( this is kind of weak one)....refer to my last couple posts for some other spots above that.
I have 736 on my brain down below....not sure why at the moment but I probably have a reason for it so....
I'll try to figure some other downside spots later.
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My gut is we'll see 1320 on ES Friday before we see 1290. But who knows. I think it is a good risk/reward, so I am taking it.
But with Facebook IPO, OpEx, Friday after a terrible week, then who knows. Anything can happen. In particular at the close.
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