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TF thread (Russell 2000) ... anything goes
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TF thread (Russell 2000) ... anything goes

  #281 (permalink)
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I wish I had something interesting to post but don't have anything really except that it seems like we are getting comfortable here.....I don't have market profile but just the fact that we keep rotating around up here kind of tells me(obviously I suppose) that we have some level of acceptance and could be building a base here for a launch to new highs or just will go back and forth until we get some kind of news that breaks us out one way or the other.

In the mean time just have to keep playing back and forth until it really pops one way or the other.

I haven't been sure enough of any particular spots to post so I've been quiet lately and still remained focused on around 832 and 815 and 810 but the in between stuff is unclear....

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  #282 (permalink)
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Three Peaks and a Domed House:

If George Lindsay's technical observation proves correct, the S&P 500 should embark on a sharp move higher. As I noted on June 24, 2011, in "Crazy and Fast Times With 'Fast Money,'"

At the same time the stock market enters this uncertain, murky period of less monetary and fiscal support in a somewhat broken, or at least wounded, state technically. While I don't rely on technicalanalysis, I recognize many do. While a lot of the "Fast" gang looks at technical levels in determining market direction, resistance and support, if I go technical I prefer looking at patterns rather than levels. And I highlighted my view that a George Lindsay Three Peaks and a Domed House pattern could be indicating an April 2011 top in the markets. The gang laughed!

By means of background, technical analyst Lindsay coined his 23-step "Three Peaks and a Domed House" technical pattern and gained celebrity because it pointed to a market peak in late 1968 -- and the largest stockmarket correction since World War II followed in the years after.

(
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Earlier this year I raised the issue that an unusually negative technical formation (in Stages 1 to 7) of Three Peaks and a Domed House might have indicated that an important market top was being made in the spring of 2011.

My observation caught the Fast Money team and a number of technically inclined analysts by surprise, as I tend to side with fundamentals.

The sharp downturn in stock prices in July (matching Stages 9 to 10) that followed provided an almost perfect fit to Lindsay's observed technical configuration.

But now (after possibly moving from Stage 1 to Stage 19) a positive setup and phase (from Stages 20 to 23) might be in order.

If the pattern of Three Peaks and a Domed House continues, a sharp upside move in the stock indices appears possible.

The chart below indicates that the technical pattern (though there was recently a slight undercut, just as there was a slight overcut in previous stages) is almost exactly synchronized. If history follows, we are about to move toward the domed house (and much higher stockprices) in the months ahead, as opposed to the doomed house mentioned yesterday by Dr. Bobby Marcin.

Below is a chart of S&P 500 cash year-to-date superimposed by Three Peaks and A Domed House. Please note the similarity between the S&P and Lindsay's technical configuration throughout this year.

S&P 500 and Lindsay's Pattern

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Read more: Three Peaks And A Domed House: What The Classic Chart Pattern Is Indicating | Stocks And Markets | Minyanville.com

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  #283 (permalink)
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Three Peaks and a Domed House



kbit View Post
If George Lindsay's technical observation proves correct, the S&P 500 should embark on a sharp move higher. As I noted on June 24, 2011, in "Crazy and Fast Times With 'Fast Money,'"

Is this the way you see it? Thanks.

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  #284 (permalink)
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HighRise1202 View Post
Is this the way you see it? Thanks.

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I guess this guy(George) is thinking that we will just go up from here and at this point I would acknowledge that possibility.

I'm thinking there is definitely more topside....my problem is (and I'm not alone) that I want a real pullback to 1300 or something.

This might not happen though the way it's been going....so I can try and guess all day long on what, where ,when ,why and how but at the end of the day we have to trade what we see...(yeah that's a tired old saying).

I have been trying to figure spots this might turn around at and have been pretty close but the problem is that when it hits support it doesn't break through and hold. so that's why I have been promoting the idea of just trading the range....when it breaks through support and gets rejected on a retest we will be good to go.

I don't know if I answered your question or not.....I don't want to ramble on to much and confuse everyone (including myself)


Last edited by kbit; February 19th, 2012 at 10:27 PM.
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  #285 (permalink)
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Which products do you trade?

 
Just a couple spots to keep an eye on....825 and 828.5 and 831.5

On the downside 813 ish (might be weak so...) then 806 then my 802.5(from qiute a while ago but..)

Where it goes nobody knows....but those spots should do something

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  #286 (permalink)
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Looking like 815 might hold (day ain't over yet though)...I was thinking we might see 813 but .....

821 seems to be a spot to keep an eye on based on the activity around there but I don't necessarily like it that much...rather see around 825.

I don't see a decent bottom around here so in other words I want to short it again somewhere for a retest at least...the only thing is all that chop that could be considered I suppose to be accumulation but I don't really see it that way.

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  #287 (permalink)
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from pt

It would seem there is a chance of it, but as was stressed earlier, confirmation is key considering how long it is taking everything to trade out on today’s narrow trading in DXY and EURUSD.


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There’s the VIX’s intraday Double Bottom gone triple and this intraday Triple Bottom confirms at the same 18.94 for the same target of 20.34 but fails at 17.54.

The Russell 2000’s intraday, or daily, Double Top remains valid and still confirms at 812 for a target of 791 and just below a gap at 795 that is likely to close at some point sooner rather than later.


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Should the RUT turn down below 817, there’s a good chance this pattern will confirm while a move above 824 will make it less likely.

But it is for these intraday charts that make it seem that the VIX appears to be going triple as the RUT stays double.

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  #288 (permalink)
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Well looks like 813 was better than I thought it would be...I did take a long of that area but foolishly didn't ride it to the top...oh well
If you guys recall 825 was a spot to watch as well...turns out they wanted to go even higher.

At this point I'm thinking the 822 area is a spot to keep an eye on.
The topside I'm not sure but will post some thoughts later

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  #289 (permalink)
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3 peaks and a house?


kbit View Post
Well looks like 813 was better than I thought it would be...I did take a long of that area but foolishly didn't ride it to the top...oh well

Are we headed to position 23!?!

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HighRise1202 View Post
Are we headed to position 23!?!

I'm beginning to think so.....if we can get above 833ish and stay there it looks likely.

Take a look at the next post (# 291) from PT....I usually think they are wrong but I'm pretty much on the same page with them on this one.

I stll haven't written off the downside idea yet though until like I say we stay above 833...For now anyway I want to first see what happens overnight and secondly see what happens around 822.(maybe just a hair under 821 really)...actually it might bounce off 824.

If they are really bullish it should not drop further than about 817.5 worst case

If it doesn't bother to pullback at all that's fine too...we'll just look for a retest around 833 after it makes a new high.

I know I have a bunch of spots but it's a bit confusing for all of us at this point..

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