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TF thread (Russell 2000) ... anything goes
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TF thread (Russell 2000) ... anything goes

  #11 (permalink)
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Cool idea kbit. Maybe the ES POMO thread and this one can be combined?

I've been posting in there but there's hardly any participation.
The more the merrier...

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  #12 (permalink)
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Silvester17 View Post
hope you don't mind for posting this here.

it's more relevant to s&p, but counts for tf as well. one thing we should not forget, the market is pretty cheap. at current valuation, a fair value for s&p should be around 1600. now the question is what are we doing at 1200? I think the answer is, a lot of bad news is already in the market. so we should have some room for more bad news. of course this is all meaningless if devastating news would hit us. like a failure from a big bank or more greece cases in europe.

should also add, as far as trading, I'm flat now. except a small position in bac. (it's almost like an option with no expiration)

Very interesting, what are you using to determine this?

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  #13 (permalink)
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Massive l View Post
Maybe the ES POMO thread and this one can be combined?

No I think two entirely different topics and should remain as they are. The POMO thread was primarily designed to talk about the POMO's... but kind of acted as an all-things-SP500 thread for a while.

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  #14 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Very interesting, what are you using to determine this?

Mike

very simple.

s&p is going to earn about $100.00 this year. at 1200 = pe of 12. average pe is about 16. so 16 x 100 is 1600.

again this is very very simple and a lot of other factors should be considered as well to determine the "value" of the market.

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  #15 (permalink)
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Daily chart, broke out of the cloud and where it goes nobdy knows...Actually that 765 area is in the cards but I dont' know if it will run straight there.
The TS and the KS are not on the upside yet so this isn't the most bullish scenario.
The TS is currently at 714.20 and from my experience if we could get a pull back in the next couple days to that area that would be a good spot to go long as it stands now. Things could/will change as time goes by but that's my take on it right now.
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Last edited by kbit; October 27th, 2011 at 12:39 PM.
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  #16 (permalink)
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Just had another thought and that is that just looking at a conventional daily chart ideally in my view I would like to see a retest and hold in the 728 ish area (in a perfect world)...The Ichimoku, from my experience would have a long (safest play w/small stop)at 715 area... all depends on what you want to look at...I posted a daily and weekly a few posts back that look at it without Ichimoku

Edit: Actually I think 715ish would be ok anyway on either chart......feel free to tell me I'm wrong

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If you try a 5min chart with ichimoku, try TS/KS settings of 96,280.

This will keep you in solid trades and out of whipsaw action seen with the traditional
settings 9,26 on smaller time frames.

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  #18 (permalink)
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Well I guess we made it to 765...didn't expect it so soon but....will have to watch a little bit to see what happens next
It might come back to 730 and run up some more. I think it might go up a little more though before it pulls back...maybe 780 area.
That being said I'm pretty sure the top is in for today

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Here's todays tick chart which shows a pattern that would suggest we will just keep going up.
I imagine this has a name but I don't what it is, just something I picked up on....if the low gets taken out all long bets are off. It should hit really no lower than about 761 and go up if this is going to work.
As a side note, I know some will say we will have a inside day tomorrow but, this is what I'm seeing. Also the 1hr and 15m Ichimoku support this continuation of the up move. If we do go up and for some reason get close to 800 area I expect a stalling at 97.5 regardless when that would happen.
>
>
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  #20 (permalink)
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From TT's pal


Just a little note from me....it amazes me how a lot of people keep saying how bearish things are as the markets keep going up (I have no opinion either way anymore..gave up predicting).....anyway this is another take on things
>
>
>

This is a situation not to be overanalyzed but treated practically and something that does not come easily to someone who admittedly overanalyzes anything and everything. However, simplicity must be respected at a time when there are nearly an infinite number of ways to look at the euro-euphoric leap in risk and at a time when the sideways trend has given way to an uptrend as short-lived as it may or may not turn out to be.

And that is actually the question right there: is sideways about to go vicious on steroids or has sideways simply gone away?

Probably the simplest and only way to have true confidence in the former possibility is if today does turn out to be what I wrote about this afternoon and that is a Church Spire Top – a Spike Top – that will basically protrude “head and shoulders above days before and after if it is at or near a Top” and something that will not be known until tomorrow.

In looking at the charts of the Dow Industrials and Russell 2000, the first half of the definition is clearly met and, again, no markings are needed with some things just speaking for themselves.


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The second half of the definition may or may not become evident tomorrow, but should these indexes open and trade noticeably below today’s close, the real sign of a reversal will be if each then closes below yesterday’s close. The chart of the Russell 2000 may provide some proof of this possibility with its gap between 736 and 739 and at an interesting level for the fact that this had been the area of this index’s last recent intraday high until today.

In short, then, if the equity indexes open and trade down tomorrow and come close to going below today’s open or certainly yesterday’s close, it would seem sideways is about to get vicious as the equity indexes would probably decline to reverse some good portion of the more than three-week rally.

Such an extreme scenario seems possible only if the EURUSD starts to decline from its truly outrageous spike up and something to be discussed – or speculated – upon in another note later on.

It would seem, then, that the Spike Top that will potentially make itself known tomorrow by its “head and shoulders” protrusion would provide the easiest answer to the above.

Little is that easy, though, and this leads us to the second possibility or that today was a Runaway Day and this will be confirmed by “nice consolidation and continued volume” while “a tapering of volume will confirm the day as significant while a tapering of volume and rounding or volatile pullback will call into question its validity.”

In other words, if today turns out to be a trueRunaway Day that truly marks the end of the recent sideways trend, we’re looking for a nice Bull Pennant or Flag on decent volume before the next leg of the uptrend is put in. If tomorrow and the days to come are on weak volume or take on the look of a topping pattern at all and one that takes the indexes quickly back to about today's open, the sideways trend could get vicious yet and clearly this will take a good deal of judgment and particularly in relation to the Runaway Day possibility.

And so, the Spike Top versus the Runaway Day distinction seems to be the simplest way to answer the question of whether the recent sideways trend will pull equities back down with a vicious vengeance or whether a new uptrend has been born.

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