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TF thread (Russell 2000) ... anything goes
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TF thread (Russell 2000) ... anything goes

  #171 (permalink)
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This one is for you @bluemele.....pinbar off my number (was off weekly vwap as well)
the two red lines are the opening range.....pin was perched on the low of the range too (lower red line).

Edit: I forgot to mention S1 was mixed in there as well

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  #172 (permalink)
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I am hoping you jumped on it! This was maybe the pullback you were looking for? Seems like it could be a big H&S for more down?

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  #173 (permalink)
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Nothing fancy tonight....my thought is just go long if it breaks todays high or go short if we take out the low.

The only spots I can point out are 764 and 759 ......and 776.5 area on the upside, but not real comfy with these numbers so like always just look for PA around there and act accordingly.


Last edited by kbit; January 12th, 2012 at 10:04 PM.
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  #174 (permalink)
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This is a chart of the EMD...just happen to notice this megaphone thing going on( roughly drawn past 5 days).
This could be a reversal sign....and we are at the top so this would be a nice spot to try a short...

I have found over time the EMD can show a better picture ( for me anyway) of what's going on....so just throwing this out there for you guys to consider.

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  #175 (permalink)
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Which products do you trade?

 
I thought I should point out a couple spots to keep an eye on on the TF....783 ish should get some kind of reaction (should be decent) when/if we hit it...
Before that is 773 even though it seems like it might get blown through....
There are a couple other spots but I don't have a clear enough picture really to say.

As I kind of alluded to in the previous post(EMD), I'm not entirely certain we're not going to get some downside on this deal.....in my mind I'm thinking that the new year shenanigans will be dealt with this week and after a couple more days pass we will know what the true direction is and I think we will be able to better predict things. So we could rollover at anytime really.

I do have some downside spots the main one being 740 on the extreme end and before that 756 and 753 which would more likely come into play in the short term.

Sorry I'm all over the map today, what it boils down to is just keep those spots in mind and see what happens around them and I'll refine things as the week unfolds.


P.S. if any of you guys see something that I may have missed or you just think I'm crazy feel free to chime in

EDIT; I forgot to mention the possibility of this thing just taking off now that we are topside of 765 and working our way ( longer term ) up to 800....so keep that in the back of your head


Last edited by kbit; January 16th, 2012 at 03:40 PM.
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  #176 (permalink)
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Baltic Dry Index Slumps To Lowest Since January 2009

The apparently critical-when-its-going-up-but-ignore-it-when-it-is-falling index of the cost of dry bulk goods transportation has 'crashed' in the last few weeks to its lowest level since January 2009 (back below 1000 according to today's levels).

Whether this is seasonal output differences or weather impacts, it seems clear that lower steel output in China and a decline in European imports is having its impact on global trade. The index has fallen for 19 days in a row, down almost 50%, its largest drop since the harrowing period of Q4 2008.


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The change over the past 19 days (of freefall) is almost 50%, its largest drop since Q4 2008...
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and only the third largest ever monthly percentage drop in dry bulk rates...
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Charts: Bloomberg

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  #177 (permalink)
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We are hovering just above 765 which could be a launching pad for a run up.
The 773 area got blown through as I thought was a possibility but 775 held it so it wasn't to far off.....
This 765 area is something we will have to watch....might just dance around here for a while....
I'll post more details later

Edit: just a note, this little bottom they have in now looks weak so watch out for a rise and fall deal..in other words not seeing PA that I would like so that usually means if it goes up it will come back and revisit this area or go lower


Last edited by kbit; January 17th, 2012 at 12:20 PM.
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  #178 (permalink)
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Just wanted to remind you guys to keep an eye on the 783 area.....
I'm not seeing a reason for a significant drop before that really......but anyway keep an eye on 771 area if it drops.

There are a few other spots but until it hits one of those I don't care to speculate.

We basically had one of those melt up deals today...slow grind up so it's likely to hold up....not seeing any imminent collapse.

The only thing that might change that is the CPI or some kind of horrible number in unemployment claims like way over 400 or something

Edit: I'm changing that 771 to 772.5


Last edited by kbit; January 18th, 2012 at 11:18 PM.
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  #179 (permalink)
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PTs take on things

This remains the chart to watch and it just wants to go up as can be seen below.


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Whether it will continue to want to go up will depend on whether its uptrend from the middle of December is an Ascending Trend Channel or a bearish Rising Wedge with the latter marked within the former. Supporting the continuation of the uptrend is the obvious or the fact that there is such a discernible uptrend while the possible reversal that would come on that Rising Wedge is supported by unclosed gaps below and notably one at 2616.

Tomorrow may be an interesting tell around these two aspects, though, with both calling for a move down but the difference being one of degree. It is the bottom trendline of the bullish Ascending Trend Channel that could pull the Nasdaq Composite down to about 2720 before allowing it to rise higher while the bearish Rising Wedge is looking for confirmation on a potential drop below that level to validate its downside target of about 2525.

And this brings us to the bigger issue at hand here and that is the Nasdaq Composite’s Symmetrical Triangle.


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There is absolutely no doubt that it has broken to the upside this year on that unclosed gap up at 2616 but a breakout that may be less about a false initial breakout to the upside and more about a real deal breakout that will lead to some continuation of the cyclical bull market that began in March 2009 after today’s clear takeout of the Vision-For-A-Plan-To-Save-Europe rally back in late October.

Does this mean my view is turning bullish? No, unfortunately, it does not as it is becoming tiring to go against the trend, but it still seems like a false uptrend to me and so it is hard for me to get behind it, but clearly stocks are going up and this counts for something.

Maybe what it counts for is not a false initial reaction from that Symmetrical Triangle but a sideways swipe up in a larger Symmetrical Triangle as shown below.


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Such an interpretation seems like a stretch to me, but it is possible and it points to some more sideways trading ahead and perhaps for a good bulk of this year. Should this prove true as may occur if 2720 is breached to the downside on the confirmation of that potential Rising Wedge, expect to see the Nasdaq Composite trade sideways between about 2350 and 2750 in the months ahead before that truly impressionable directionless breaks up or down for a 30%+ move.

Interestingly, the Symmetrical Triangle as drawn directly above presents particularly well in weekly form as will be shown over this weekend if it is relevant and that is probably more of the real reason to show this possibility above.

It is this massive sideways possibility that is simply a continuation of the sideways ways of the last two years and one that will be filled with plenty of whipsaws up and down and lots of fodder for the bulls and the bears.

And it is all of these charts that take us back to watching the COMP first and foremost as the leader of what could turn out to be yet another head faking melt-up.

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  #180 (permalink)
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I'm still liking 783 area but can make an argument based on how things are going for a possible rise to 787.5 area so be aware of that

also looking at 1311.50 on ES and 1316.25 ......

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