I am in your boat.

I am thoroughly confused...

Depends on the time of day which is it? Long or short? Well, it is 3pm so I think short... haha...

Not clear at all as if it is short, it is going to be a doozy, but I could see long as well.

If I add fundementals then I see both as well, but more 'emotional fundamentals' for the long side and more 'technical fundamentals' on the short side.

bluemele 

I am in your boat. I am thoroughly confused... Depends on the time of day which is it? Long or short? Well, it is 3pm so I think short... haha... Not clear at all as if it is short, it is going to be a doozy, but I could see long as well. If I add fundementals then I see both as well, but more 'emotional fundamentals' for the long side and more 'technical fundamentals' on the short side.

I think my problem(?) is that I overthink this stuff sometimes.....Really as far as the TF is concerned the monthly and weekly and daily are saying it's going up. It is just a matter of trying to get the exact spot to go long from....which can be a guessing game. I might end up sitting here twiddling my thumbs watching it rise without me....

I guess though if it does breakthrough 765 we will go to 800 in which case a retest of 765 could be the entry for the eventual ride up.

How this one slipped by me until now is beyond me, but a favorite reader was good enough to remind me of a chart that was a frequent topic here earlier this year and that is the chart of copper and the Nasdaq Composite.

What makes it of interest now is the divergence in trading paths with copper remaining true to its trend of lower highs and the Nasdaq Composite having traded above its last high. Such a difference is also shown by the fact that copper remains in the body of its Symmetrical Triangle that presents bearishly due to the lower highs to precede it while the Nasdaq Composite is beginning to break above its Symmetrical Triangle.

When this current divergence is considered in the context of past departures in direction by copper and the Nasdaq Composite, it seems likely that the Nasdaq is going to fall back down to close its gap at 2616 and then perhaps to the bottom of its Symmetrical Triangle at 2575 with copper nearly at the bottom of its Symmetrical Triangle now.

Should copper breakout to the downside from its Symmetrical Triangle, it confirms safely at $3.00/lb for a target of $2.00/lb and it may provide a slightly early indication that the Nasdaq Composite will begin to confirm its Symmetrical Triangle at 2440 for a target of 1960.

There is good reason to think this might occur considering that copper has been “right” more often than not in the past when the two have parted paths as indicated by the arrows. There is one notable exception, though, and one that tripped me up and that was this past July when the Nasdaq began to break down slightly before copper.

And so let’s not be tripped up here but rather watch these Symmetrical Triangles from both sides with the downside covered above while the Nasdaq would lead the charge up confirmation coming at 2753 for a target of 3420 and such a confirmation would tell us that copper would confirm its Symmetrical Triangle at $3.72/lb for a target of $4.70/lb.

Considering, though, that copper has led this parade more often than the COMP, it seems there could be a bear on display soon.

In my view, the Nasdaq Composite is breaking out of its Symmetrical Triangle to the upside.

It is crucial to watch this breakout because it may tell us whether equities are about to move up by at least 20% or move down by at least 20%. Such a distinction will be made initially by whether the Nasdaq Composite ignores an unclosed gap at 2616 to climb higher using that Ascending Trend Channel in blue or whether the Nasdaq Composite closes that gap on the Bear Pennant comprised of the top trendline in blue and the bottom trendline in red.

Should the Nasdaq climb higher, it must take out its last protruding high at 2753 for us to treat it seriously and a level that would safely confirm its Symmetrical Triangle for its upside target of 3240.

Should the Nasdaq fall back, it must move below its last protruding low at 2441 for us to treat it seriously and a level that would provide early confirmation of its Symmetrical Triangle’s downside target of 1960.

Levels, then, are the best way to watch this bull and bear battle and those are 2441 and 2616 on the downside and 2730 and 2753 on the upside with a move above the latter levels signaling that last week’s move up was the beginning of that Symmetrical Triangle fulfilling to the upside while a move below the former levels will signal that last week’s move up was a false initial reaction from that Symmetrical Triangle.

Perhaps providing some early guidance is the weekly chart on the following page that continues to look truly bearish to me and even with this past week’s move up.

Not only is there a bearish Head and Shoulders pattern showing with a target of 1500, there is a toppy symmetry between 2007 and 2011 and it is challenging to see the Nasdaq Composite overcome that look right now.

Levels are the guide here, however, and this means watching the near-term boundaries outlined above and it is due to the clarity of levels around the Nasdaq Composite’s Symmetrical Triangle and its current breakout to the upside, though, that make the COMP the chart to watch still.

You say everything is long, but all your re-posts say short...

haha... I guess that may be why you are confused...

bluemele 

You say everything is long, but all your re-posts say short... haha... I guess that may be why you are confused...

Yeah I know....just listen to me...don't listen to those re-post wackos and you'll be fine.
I post them just to make me look better when they prove to be wrong...

What a boring day....I hope you guys got something ...wasn't a lot to chose from as I saw it but I did get a small short off the 763 area.
It's not worth posting a chart today...I am just going to point out some areas I will keep an eye on tomorrow.

769.5 is a spot I am curious about...for some reason I'm thinking it could rollover here and go fill that gap from today...not saying it will just a feeling.

Aside from that we have to watch for PA around 765 anyway to see if it gets taken out and if it does will it hold on a retest of a break.

Right now it seems bullish enough to try a long off about 758 if it even drops at all...it does look like it will drop a little....
Where it tops out if it kept going up...maybe 775 and change....don't really know...still a bit confused...
As kind of a last note, this should be more clear next week...things should be more "normal" even though we have a holiday and cpi and option exp.

Anyway just remember ALWAYS get PA before jumping in.

Today’s big news is the S&P taking out its last true high made in late October on an intraday basis, but let’s look at the chart of an index that made this possibly bullish move last year and that is the chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

It is worth looking at the chart of the Dow tonight for the very irony contained in the fact that it grows more bearish as it climbs higher and something reflected in almost every individual stock chart viewed here recently with most not detailed in notes.

Driving that ironic twist is the Dow’s truly magnificent and bearish Rising Wedge pattern that could put in a peak to match last April’s high of 12876 or could begin to fulfill any day now with the difference presenting the difficulty around forecasting an unconfirmed Rising Wedge.

Such a difficulty is captured by the challenge of gauging a bearish pattern built of a bullish trend. What makes the bullish trend ultimately bearish is the fact that it represents slowing buying momentum that typically turns outright selling with the recent Rising Wedges in TIF and ORCL providing good examples of how these patterns trade once confirmed.

Relative to the Dow’s current pattern, its apex might come at any level between today’s close and around that aforementioned 12876 with confirmation at about 12250 for a target of 10405.

Interestingly, it was this very pattern that brought the Dow down in August even though the bearish Rising Wedge built of trading from late 2010 into early 2011 failed to hit its target of about 9615, but the strong potential for pattern repetition in the chart above should not be ignored nor should the fact that this pattern might strike when the fewest people are expecting it with a lot of sudden bullishness out there.

What happened to the eurozone’s recession, the fact that Greece needs the next part of its bailout to avoid bankruptcy by March, the possibility of France’s downgrade, and possible eurozone bank collapse on bad collateral?

All of the above and more is showing up in the chart of EURUSD even though risk appears to be trying to decouple from the old risk currency of choice, but, and a topic for another time, probably unsuccessfully due to those looming fundamental factors.

Rather it seems likely that risk in the form of the Dow in this case will probably correlate back up to EURUSD as worries about the eurozone push each down whether that is tomorrow or weeks from now, it is simply hard to see the Dow escaping some sort of bearish fate from that Rising Wedge.

Supporting such a bearish fate is the chart of the VIX that is trading in the bullish Falling Wedge pointed out last week and one that has found a nicer possible apex yet but one that could carve even lower.

Maybe this pattern does trade down to about 17.5 and something that would probably match Dow 12786 or thereabouts, but when it confirms, as it will, by taking the VIX above 25, it is likely to come very close to hitting its target of 47.5 and something that would probably match Dow 10405 if not lower.

In other words, the VIX and the Dow point down at some point in the first quarter of this New Year.

looks like they took out 765...but not by much and ended up stuck here at the close.
Again where it goes is a bit unknown(as usual) but tonight anyway there are signs it will drop(right when it opens up).....keep an eye on 763

There probably should have been a bit more upside today and there wasn't so that's kind of telling me the bulls are running a bit low on gas up here. A pullback may be in order soon...it may pop up later tonight or in the morning to the 769 area and might rollover. It's kind of guess work so just pay attention to those spots.

On the downside watch the 736 area if it gets visited and before that the 750 area and more immediately 758.5

Now I read this!!!! haha...