Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
Hard to draw conclusions based on such a small sample size, but I'll say they're 'somewhat' off in their estimates. Here's a TradingView chart with the projections of the experts (sadly I can't include the real-time version found here):
Biggest plus (according to their estimates, excluding Credit Suisse): we'll looks to have a pretty impressive year-end rally.
This is the month Greece runs out of money. Since all EU members can print bonds if one defaults they are defaulting on the euro.
The CDS market might be as high as 200 trillion today where the MBS market was 40 trillion in '08.
If we crash I wonder how long our bonds will be felt as a safe haven with the unre-payable debt, revenue to spending ratio and being a semi-funder of other central banks. That the IMF can take care of it with the 2 trillion claimed is bs.
If PM's go down physical may be hard to get a hold on pretty fast.
Anyone know how this would affect their futures market? If comex can't deliver what would happen if you are holding shares to trade?
I am extreamly bearish on the global economy and think a flash crash is on the cards....does anyone else have the same outlook?
My thoughts:
Between 1970 and 1980 the US indices where at a major bottom, during this time there were three major lows. This was lead by the S&P between October and November 1974. The DOW/commodities then followed suit in January 1980 followed by the DOW PPI in 1982. This formed the triple bottom that lead to the greatest bull market to date. Now, looking back to 1998 the Value Line Composite Index topped out in April, followed by a peak of 11,720 in the DOW with regards to commodities, Gold and the PPI in 1999 to 2000. This was then followed by a strong retracement of 32%.This created the first shoulder. In October 2007 the DOW – expressed in Dollar terms, made an all time high of 14,167. This was then followed by a strong retracement of just over 50%. This created the head of the formation. This also set the trend for a bearish down sloping neckline. Now to look at recent market levels, in 2011. The S&P500 hit a yearly high of 1,352 in May and is currently retracing at 2,250. The DOW hit a yearly high of 12,800 in May and is currently retracing at 12,020. The NASDAC also hit a yearly high of 2,870 in May and is currently retracing at 1,627. This has formed the second sloping shoulder in the pattern. You may be thinking this could also be a triple bottom indicating even higher highs? The neckline of the sloping shoulder is sloping as a result of diminishing market volume. This is a strong indication of the imminent trend reversal. If you look at the NYSE historical volume over a 3 month moving average you will see a clear decline. Also, before each historical retracement there was a clear spike in volume immediately before the flash crash, this is a result of misplaced optimism in the market driven by herd mentality. As I write we are currently experiencing the aforementioned spike in market volume as a result of misplaced optimism.
CONCLUSION
A flash crash is imminent; this theory is backed by technical indicators as well as fundamentals. One only has to look at the current state of the Euro zone and the cotangent effect on global economies as a result. The fact that the leading nations of the G12 and the IMF as a whole choose to “keep kicking the can down the road” makes it clear that this is a problem that is going to get worse before it gets better. Government leaders have now concluded that the formation of the Euro zone was, in fact, a bad idea – gold star for effort but too little to late. As a result nations that once where self sufficient are now highly exposed to the economic risk of their failing counterparties. Effectively if a few go down then the rest will be dragged kicking and screaming. Taking into account the retracement values between 1998 and 2009, as well as the bearish trending neck line, I expect the leading US Indices to crash in the region of 70%, this being a consecutive figure. I expect the S&P500 to hit a 21 year low of 475 before the end of Q4 2012, the economic shock to the global economy with result in a domino effect amongst global indices, of which all are correlated in some respect. I predict that the S&P will trade sideways and settle at around $550 before a short term rally towards Q3 2013 as the market, and the world adjusts.
Just my thoughts , im no expert and dont claim to be one. I am sure many of you will strongly disagree...I would love to hear your arguments ...
