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Analyse CAC40 par Anas
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Analyse CAC40 par Anas

  #951 (permalink)
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CAC.

Ca résiste et c'est normal.


Mais dès que 3910 cassé en clôture, ça donnerait ça:


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Le S&P est à 1641.40 dans la zone de la 3 (1640/45)

Il y a un POMO aujourd'hui aux US de +/- 3 milliards.

Le DJIA ne fait pas de nouveau plus haut.

Le CAC ne remonte pas à 3985 ni à 3965 pour le moment.



Important: CITI, a suspendu tous ses produits depuis ce matin. Ils viennent de revenir à 16h avec des contributions divisées par 10 comme en mars.

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  #953 (permalink)
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Il parait que c'est ce mec qui fait remonter


le marché ce matin à Wall Street:


David Tepper Is Definitely Bullish - Business Insider

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Tous les records sont battus sur les indices US.

Je ne sais pas s'il y a encore quelqu'un qui a un cerveau là-bas et est capable de tirer la sonnette d'alarme sur ce qu'il est en train de se passer.

Pour avoir connu plusieurs crash, notamment ceux de 2000/2003 et 2008/2009, je commence à être assez en colère.
D'abord parce que j'ai des positions baissières massacrées par la compression de la volatilité et les minables AR intraday n'y font rien. Et puis faire remonter les marchés de manière artificiellle jusqu'au jour où on se dit ah ben le fondamental ne suit pas, c'est assez stupide comme stratégie.


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A propos de fondamental qui ne suit pas.

La divergence extrême du S&P et du Baltic Dry index:


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Ce décompte est bon. Ce qui nous intéresse immédiatement c'est le vert. Le fait que le S&P monte au dessus de 1645 est juste un excès.

A tout moment on peut démarrer une conso dont l'objectif est à 1530/40.


Le CAC n'a pas fait de nouveau plus haut par-rapport à vendredi malgré cette hausse de 14 points sur le S&P. Cette "sous-performance" est un élément qui va dans le sens de la conso.

D'un point de vue objectif à la baisse sur le CAC, on pourrait bien baisser sous 3700 car le S&P va partir de plus haut.


Je mettrai un graph tout à l'heure.

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I do not know if there is still someone who has a brain there and is able to pull the alarm about what is happening. For experienced several crashes, including those of 2000/2003 and 2008/2009, I began to be quite angry. Firstly because I have bearish positions massacred by the compression of volatility and intraday AR shabby there doing nothing. And then make up markets so artificiellle until the day we say oh well the fundamental does not, it's pretty stupid as a strategy.

Please excuse Google translate and English response.

For sure these markets are an immense source of frustration because we expect things to be in certain ranges - BUT - we started a new Gann 60yr (the big one) cycle in 2009 and the longwave has also either ended 2009 or will end soon in 2013/2016. At best for the bears the 4 year bull is a monster 'B' wave (the most difficult environment of all to trade.)

Throw in the ridiculous activity of thin-air credit creators, banksters and politicians (play with fire and dud promises only) and we have a recipe for massive confusion of all parties, all we can do is keep eyes and minds wide open. I do not think the world will be what anybody expects in 10 years time.

The price mechanism is still the most efficient carrier of information ever invented -at the moment we are without one.

I wish to you patience and good fortune.
Cheers

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Ashraf Laidi (Citi) sur le S&P.

Des chiffres et des records...

S&P500 Trend & Breadth Analysis | City Index

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ratfink View Post
Please excuse Google translate and English response.

For sure these markets are an immense source of frustration because we expect things to be in certain ranges - BUT - we started a new Gann 60yr (the big one) cycle in 2009 and the longwave has also either ended 2009 or will end soon in 2013/2016. At best for the bears the 4 year bull is a monster 'B' wave (the most difficult environment of all to trade.)

Throw in the ridiculous activity of thin-air credit creators, banksters and politicians (play with fire and dud promises only) and we have a recipe for massive confusion of all parties, all we can do is keep eyes and minds wide open. I do not think the world will be what anybody expects in 10 years time.

The price mechanism is still the most efficient carrier of information ever invented -at the moment we are without one.

I wish to you patience and good fortune.
Cheers



Hello Ratfink,

Thank you for your message and your interesting thoughts. This is not a problem to post in English here.

May be a graph of Gann cycle you mentioned?



Regards.

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AnasParis View Post
Maybe a graph of Gann cycle you mentioned?

Hi @AnasParis, Sorry I have no suitable charts in this area at the moment, I am just aware that sometimes the starts and ends of cycles can be much stronger than many expect. As yet we have no evidence of long-term bearish behaviour in these markets and should at least await until it shows up in outside weekly and monthly reversal bars. Until then there is nothing to say new highs cannot continue to be made for a long time yet, with some serious pullbacks along the way for sure.

Even the collapse of '08-'09 took 17 months (interestingly a typical panic phase length according to Mr Armstrong) so we should not try to dictate our trading stances according to our longer term fears. Once some serious levels of support have cracked then maybe she dies, maybe not.

I am focussed on building a short term trade plan at the moment but will re-kindle my cycle work when I have chance, all I can say is that I saw enough to suggest the (surprise to me) possibility that new 17-18 year and 8.6 year cycles may well have started at the 2009 low as well as larger cycles, in which case there was more energy present than we might have expected, regardless of what the crazies in power have also done.

I have other upside down end of world views but am continually learning to keep one eye in each direction.
Cheers

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