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Analyse CAC40 par Anas
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Analyse CAC40 par Anas

  #51 (permalink)
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S&P

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Haussier en journalier. Pas de signal de baisse encore. Ceci est donc une projection. Je pense que la hausse peut s'arrêter à 1516 ou à 1525 et des poussières. Suivi d'une conso vers 1450 environ.


Last edited by AnasParis; February 3rd, 2013 at 08:10 PM.
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Haussier en journalier. Pas de signal de baisse encore. Ceci est donc une projection. Je pense que la hausse peut s'arrêter un peu avant 3200. Suivi d'une conso vers 3030 environ.


Last edited by AnasParis; February 3rd, 2013 at 08:13 PM.
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DAX


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Le rebond de vendredi n'a pas permis au DAX de faire un nouveau plus haut par rapport à celui de janvier et ceci malgré la continuation de la hausse des indices US. Il y a donc déjà des prises de bénéfices sur cet indice. Deux objectifs de conso: 7600 puis 7450.


Last edited by AnasParis; February 3rd, 2013 at 08:25 PM.
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En excès haussier. Doit absolument revenir à 6000 environ.


Last edited by AnasParis; February 3rd, 2013 at 08:29 PM.
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En excès haussier comme le FTSE. N'a pas fait de nouveau plus haut par rapport à janvier. Une conso à 7000 est un objectif raisonnable.


Last edited by AnasParis; February 3rd, 2013 at 08:37 PM.
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Pas de nouveau plus haut par rapport à janvier. Objectif de la conso 345 puis 338.


Last edited by AnasParis; February 3rd, 2013 at 08:40 PM.
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La bougie de vendredi ne remet pas en cause la faiblesse du BEL20, visible à travers les divergences baissières. Conso probable à 2450.


Last edited by AnasParis; February 3rd, 2013 at 08:46 PM.
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Tendance baissière engagé en journalier et quasiment en hebdo. Parmi les mauvais de la classe avec le MIB. A perdu 6% en 4 séances. Cela prouve que le problème des PIGS est suspendu mais demeure et reviendra sur la table dans quelques semaines/mois. Je pense à un objectif vers 7500.


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Excès haussier en raison de la baisse du Yen (QE illimité / mais ça n'a pas de sens). Hausse à 11400 suivie d'une conso à 10500 environ. Sous réserve des interventions de la BIJ tous les 4 matins ou d'un Tsunami dévastateur.


Last edited by AnasParis; February 3rd, 2013 at 09:04 PM.
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CAC


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Résumé:


- Les indices US sont à proximité de plus hauts immédiats. 14040 voire 14100 pour le DJIA. 1516 ou 1525 pour le S&P.
- Le VIX, malgré la forte baisse de 10% de vendredi est en situation de rebond avec comme objectif 18/19.
- Le ratio put/call est en faveur des baissiers mais reste une petite marge (d'où la marge à la hausse des indices US).
- Un afflux massif des liquidités sur les marchés actions ces dernières semaines (le dumb money ou les pigeons à qui on refile la patate chaude).
- L'indice espagnole et italien qui plongent. Les autres indices européens qui ne font pas de nouveaux plus haut malgré la continuation de la hausse des indices US.


Le CAC:

- Les divergences baissières sont visibles. Il n y a plus de carburant.
- Soit on a déjà fait le plus haut à 3793 si les US restent à 14040 et 1516 soit on le fera en début de cette semaine dans la zone 3800/10 si les US vont à 14100 et 1525.

- Deux objectifs de conso sont identifiables à court terme à 3650 puis 3580. Timing: 3 semaines environ.


- Les indices forts en ce moment consolideront de 5% en moyenne. Les moins forts et les faibles entre 7 et 12%.
- Si cette conso intervient et si les objectifs que je mentionne sont atteints, je ferais une mise à jour car il est possible que la baisse continue ou qu'il y ait un rebond pour faire de nouveaux plus hauts dans la mesure où la tendance restera haussière en mensuel et en hebdo pour cetains indices et au moins en mensuel pour d'autres.


Bonne nuit!


Anas


Last edited by AnasParis; February 3rd, 2013 at 09:46 PM.
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