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Analyse CAC40 par Anas
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Analyse CAC40 par Anas

  #531 (permalink)
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Bonjour Ngu Yen,

Le Japon va mal. 20 ans de déflation. Population vieillissante. La BOJ n'a plus le choix. Elle joue le tout pour le tout. Dette de 230% du PIB. Record mondial.

Les économistes réagissent négativement ce matin. Y en a un qui a parlé de "suicide"

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  #532 (permalink)
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2 petites infos.

- Hier, au moment où L'oréal a touché les 130€, une rumeur s'est propagé comme quoi Nestlé chercherait sortir car le cours est intéressant. Le problème c'est qu'il a un pacte avec une dame âgée qui ne saura quoi faire de 30% supplémentaires.

- Une info lancée dans la soirée par Reuters et AP comme quoi la FED voudrait alléger son QE dès l'été prochain.

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  #533 (permalink)
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BCE


Taux inchangés. Conférence de presse à 14h30.

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A mon avis,

il ne sortira pas grand chose du discours de Draghi. Le problème en Europe est spécial: l'argent servi aux banques ne circule pas dans l'économie. Ils s'en servent pour le trading, plus lucratif.

Au même temps il devient de plus en plus risqué de prêter à une catégorie d'entreprises, sous capitalisées.

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Support inchangé à 3740

Nous aurions dû y aller ce matin mais à cause de la BOJ nous avons commencé par le haut.

Pas de plongeon pour le moment. Pour cela faudrait clôturer sous 3700 en journalier.

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Mon sentiment à très court terme à cet instant

est mitigé. Soit on chute directement, soit on monte encore dans la zone 3800/25 (seulement) avant vrai départ baissier d'ici 2 ou 3 séances.

Ce que les BC vont faire on le sait maintenant, pas grand chose. mais le DJIA peut encore remonter à 14660/80 avant de baisser.

En attendant, résistance CAC 30mn à 3780.

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CAC journalier.

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Je pense qu'il va rebondir encore. Ce n'est qu'en clôturant sous cette oblique haussière qui passe à 3693/97 que la tendance haussière, initiée le 4 juin 2012, prendrait fin et laisserait place à la baisse.


Vous avez noté que les US reste stable mais ils nous vendent. Ils sont pas content que la BCE ne fasse rien.

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  #538 (permalink)
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En revanche,

le MACD est sur sa ligne d'équilibre. S'il passe en dessous ça aidera à casser l'oblique. Le DMI toujours en divergence baissière depuis le 26 mars.

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Mise à jour CAC journalier.

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D'un côté, nous sommes encore au dessus de l'oblique haussière du 4 juin 2012.

De l'autre, nous sommes sous l'effet baissier de l'englobante du 25 mars dernier ainsi que de l'oblique baissière du 14. Si on ajoute l'oblique baissière long terme de 2011, il devient assez improbable d'imaginer le CAC remonter au dessus de la zone 3800/25.

A l'heure actuelle, nous restons dans le triangle de conso visible sur le graph. La boll inférieure divergent finalement. Le MACD est sur le point de passer la ligne 0. Le DMI suggère une baisse prochaine.

La situation est plus claire qu'hier et avant hier. On reste dans le triangle et la sortie se fera presque sûrement par le bas. Demain ou un autre jour mais ça ne vas pas tarder.

Target: si on prend l'oblique haussière comme ligne d'eau, l'objectif est à 3600 voire 3570. Quelques parts par là.



Bonne soirée et à demain

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L'Oréal.



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L'Oréal a fait hier un Doji Pierre Tombale annonçant le début d'une correction. C'est la valeur qui n'a cessé de monter depuis 5 mois. PER à 25/26 et RSI mensuel à 85 (record de tous les temps sur les actions françaises)

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Après la pierre tombale, le Maro. Objectif 115 puis 103.

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