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Analyse CAC40 par Anas
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Analyse CAC40 par Anas

  #321 (permalink)
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Bonjour

Merci pour la mise à jour de tes analyses,

je suis entré short un peu tôt sur le DOW. J'étais surpris par sa bonne tenue et son potentiel qui a dépassé les 14500, et par conséquent les plus hauts historiques.

Je pense que l'épisode chypriote va faire tache d'huile. Raqueter les depots bancaires, même s'il y avait des antécedants similaires, reste quelque chose d'inadmissible.

Je n'ai plus que le choix de tenir ma position et de patienter.

Abdel








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La volatilité n'est pas assez forte encore pour avoir des grosses baisses, donc au début il va y avoir des rebonds pour réintgrer les boll ou tempérer.


Il y a des élements que je n'ai pas encore.

Je suis la s'il y a quelque chose de neuf.


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  #322 (permalink)
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Je crois vous l'avoir déjà expliqué, mais comme

cette file se veut pédagogique, je vous redis que le changement d'une tendance est souvent un peu compliqué les premiers jours car les intervenants ne savent pas encore quoi faire, où on va aller.

Donc pour le moment, il y a des signes précurseurs d'un retournement baissier (englobante + faiblesse des volumes, divergeances...etc). Au moment où la majorité passera à la vente, la tendance baissière s'installera pour un moment.

En définitif, c'est la cassure en clôture jour des 3720, qui coinsidera avec le croisement du DMI, qui fera baisser le marché. Un rebond du VIX au dessus de 14 et surtout au dessus de 16 donnera l'accélérattion souhaitée.

Ce que je crains, c'est qu'aux US ils cherchent encore à aller à 1570 sur le S&P car ils aiment montrer qu'ils ne sont pas vulnérables. Mais il est possible aussi qu'ils remontent à ce niveau tout en sortant de la zone euro.

C'est une question de quelques séances et tout sera vérifié.


C'est galère, mais le trading est devenu de plus en plus compliqué.

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  #323 (permalink)
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Bonjour Abdel,


Je regrette que tu aies choisi le DJIA pour jouer la baisse car c'est l'indice qui surperforme le plus et de tout temps. Et en effet il a abusé.

On sait que le CAC est plus fragile, donc la prochaine fois prend un put vanille, valable entre 3 et 6 mois, pour ne pas risquer la désactivation ou la pression psychologique de la moins value latente. C'est aussi plus adapté à ton métier très prenant.

Evidemment, ce qui est arrivé à Chypre, arrivera tôt ou tard dans le reste de l'Europe et assez vite en Espagne, Italie, Portugal et même en France.

En France, je pense qu'on va commencer par ponctionner les retraites (-10, -20, -30...) ensuite on cherchera à gratter un peu dans le privé (on est déjà à des niveaux barbares), un peu chez les fonctionnaires et taxer toute sorte de produits y compris du lait pour bébé ou je ne sais quoi. mais la situation s'aggravera paradoxalement car pas de nouvelle création de richesse et bcp vont chercher des solutions notamment des départs massifs.

Une dette ça doit se rembourser sinon ça met en danger les créanciers. Qui sont les créanciers de la France? les plus grandes banques de la planètes, quelques fonds souverains et quelques états riches. Tous ces prêteurs sont liés et ont un poid systèmique.

On va en parler ici à l'avenir car se sont des sujets qui nous concernent immédiatement. Gagner de l'argent en tradant c'est bien mais il faut sécuriser ses revenus avant qu'il ne soit trop tard.


Je préfère tout de même que des choses confidentiellles ne soient pas évoqué ici et cela par précaution

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  #324 (permalink)
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Abdel,

Appelle-moi sur le fix quand tu as un moment, tout en évitant l'open US.

Merci

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  #325 (permalink)
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CAc 30mn.

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C'est baissiers mais on attend les US.

Seul le secteur bancaire baisse fortement pour le moment. Il y a même des arbitrages en faveur des valeurs sûres mais très chères (fly to Quality).

J'en déduis que certains n'envisagent pas encore de tendance baissière sinon ils vendent tout.

Attendons.

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  #326 (permalink)
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Il me semble que les banques

chypriotes vont rester fermées jusqu'à nouvel ordre (à confirmer). Les gens qui n'ont pas de cash, ils mangent quoi?

C'est quand-même étrange!

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  #327 (permalink)
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réaction de Putin.

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.

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  #328 (permalink)
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La réaction de Mohamed El Erian (PDG et gérant de PIMCO)

EL-ERIAN: Here Are 4 Reasons Why The EU Took Such A Risky Approach For Cyprus
Matthew Boesler | Mar. 17, 2013, 12:35 PM | 11,657 | 38


Mohamed El-Erian – CEO of PIMCO, the biggest bond fund in the world – is out with a reaction in the FT to this weekend's stunning Cyprus bailout deal.


(The terms of the deal include an instant, 10-percent "tax" on deposits held in Cypriot banks before the banks re-open this week, which is being widely-panned as unfair by critics.)

El-Erian also thinks it's unfair.

"By choosing to include all deposits and not just the large ones, thus penalizing all segments of the population, officials opted for a highly regressive approach that also undermines the traditional construct of deposit insurance schemes around the world," he writes.

Nonetheless, according to El-Erian, the EU had four valid reasons to make such an unprecedented move.

First, El-Erian says, given the problem – which stems partly from the enormous size of the Cypriot banking system relative to GDP – depositors are partly to blame.

"In entrusting funds to Cypriot institutions, depositors (and especially foreign depositors) inadvertently funded the over-extension of the banking system, both domestically and abroad," writes El-Erian.

Second, much has been made about the "Russia angle" in the Cyprus deal. Because Cyprus is viewed as an off-shore tax haven for Russian oligarchs mafia types, many worry that the move could anger those depositors.

El-Erian thinks that is a good thing, though: "By killing once and for all the notion that Cyprus is a safe and lax offshore haven, the levy serves to limit such intermediation [of funds from dubious origins] in future."

The third valid reason for a deposit haircut, according to El-Erian, is that the alternatives seemed worse. Someone was going to lose out in this deal. For the two reasons outlined above, it might as well be the depositors.

Finally, this will serve as a "wake-up call" for investors who thought the ECB had fixed everything with its "whatever it takes to save the euro" speech back in July. This, too, is a good thing, says El-Erian.

That said, he thinks the decision to impose the levy against deposits is dangerous.

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  #329 (permalink)
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VIX jour.

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A bloqué sur sa résistance à 13.5


Je pense toujours que les 3810/20 vont résister mais même si on remonte un peu plus haut je reste baissier.

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Point sur le CAC en journalier.


La bougie du jour ne remet pas en cause l'impact baissier de l'englobante baissière de vendredi (FCE) mais la retarde de quelques jours. tant qu'on a pas fait un nouveau plus haut par rapport à vendredi, ça reste valide. Je savais que les US n'aiment pas baisser à cause des "autres" mais quand ils le décident.

Je pense qu'il vont nous embêter encore cette semaine avant de plonger à partir de vendredi 22 ou lundi 25.

Le VIX rebondit encore de 12% à cet instant. Le DMI (CAC) se dirige vers un croisement baissier.


Je suis déçu mais je reste serein.

Bonne soirée et à demain!

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