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Analyse CAC40 par Anas
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Analyse CAC40 par Anas

  #251 (permalink)
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Ouverture des indices US à 14h30

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DJIA intraday objectif 14320.

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Le Monde: Interview de Bernard Charlès sur la fiscalité française:


Dassault Systèmes : la fiscalité "met en danger la filière numérique"

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VIX journalier.

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Bonne soirée à tous et à demain.

Journée ennuyeuse

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  #256 (permalink)
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Bonjour à tous,

Hier soir, le VIX s'est carrément effondré pour clôturer à 11.56 ! il règne un sentiment de sérénité absolu.

Pour information, cet indice existe depuis 1990. Il reflète le sentiment des opérateurs outre atlantique.

11.56, est un niveau historiquement bas. Le 4ème plus bas de tous les temps. Le plus bas depuis janvier 2007 juste avant la crise des subprimes.

A ce niveau, les produits dérivés fondent comme neige car ils sont constitués majoritairement voir totalement de volatilité.

Mais attention! à ce niveau, la peur peut changer de camps à tout moment et très brutalement, et vu que les marchés sont gérés par des algorithmes, le premier qui appuye sur le mauvais bouton peut provoquer un flash crash.


Le scénario que j'ai suggéré depuis plusieurs jours et encore lundi matin reste pértinent, mais en cette période où le reverse est attendu avec impatience, je m'intéresse aux détails les plus infiniment petits, pourvu qu'ils me donnent la moindre indication de l'évolution des prix à venir.


Je confirme donc que le reverse est imminent. Il peut avoir lieu quand le DJIA aura touché 14500 et le S&P 1565 (à quelques points près).

Pour le CAC: le graph hebdo posté hier (voir page précédente) est bon. 3850 est un noeud de plusieurs résistances et il se peut que nous ne clôturerions pas au dessus. Donc ne pas se dire "on peut monter à 3880, donc j'attends ce niveau pour shorter", il n'arrivera peut-être pas. Et monter dans un train où on fait -3% est difficile psychologiquement car on a peur de la porte de saloon qui arrive souvent lors des premières séances de retourenement. C'est fait exprès, pour sortir tout le monde du marché avant une nouvelle direction.

Mon conseil: soyez patients et forts psychologiquement et vous serez récompensés.


Last edited by AnasParis; March 12th, 2013 at 04:51 AM.
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VIX, historique depuis 1990.

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VIX hebdomadaire.

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Rappel.



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La semaine dernière, je parlais du niveau des 3850 comme niveau de retournement probable sur cette UT pour un objectif à la baisse vers 3450 (+/- 20pts).

Bien comprendre que ces niveaux sont en clôture hebdomadaire. C'est à dire qu'on peut les dépasser un peu en journalier et les réintégrer.

Je confirme ce scénario puisque ces 3850 sont la confluence de la resistance oblique baissière depuis 2011 et la resistance oblique haussière de la dernière impulsion.


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