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Analyse CAC40 par Anas
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Analyse CAC40 par Anas

  #211 (permalink)
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Les shorts sont en place.

C'est le moment où il faut garder son sang froid.

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€/$ hebdomadaire.

Tendance baissière. Pullback à 1.3120/3130 max pour un objectif à 1.26 environ.

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Pernod


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92 puis 86

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Un article de Cercle Finance qui décrit assez bien ce qui se passe en ce moment.

Bourse en ligne : Information boursiere, Economie, Finance, Bourse de paris - Cerclefinance


(ouvrir l'article pour le lire en entier)

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Je regarde les graph dans tous les sens

depuis 2h. Je me demande si le S&P ne va pas monter jusqu'à 1556 après une conso à 1529, et le CAC à 3830/50 après une conso à 3750.

J'ai des doutes et ne peux pas vous livrer un avis tranché. J'ai eu le même doute en été 2007 quand les indices US étaient à leurs plus hauts historiques et le CAC à 6100, juste avant le plongeon.

Si je vois quelque chose je vous le dis.

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CAC 30 mn.

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Possible conso à 3740 (concordre avec conso S&P à 1529) mais la tendance restera haussière.


Donc plusieurs scénarios:


1/ Conso en journalier depuis cette zone, ampleur à définir les jours à venir.

2/ Conso à seulement à 3740 en 30 mn puis hausse dans la zone 3830/50 (S&P 1556) avant baisse de 10/12%.

3/ DAX à 50 pts des 8000.

4/ DJIA en avance au moins de 1% sur les autres indices.

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S&P hebdo.

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Quelques similitudes sur 3 impulsions/corrections:

- Impulsion haussière / correction MM10/ impulsion haussière / correction MM50

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CAC 30mn mise à jour.

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Signal de conso sur le CAC objectif zone 3740/50.

En revanche, pas de signal sur l'ES pour 1529 mais il est possible qu'il ouvre en haut et corriger dans la soirée.

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Resumé (important).

Après avoir vérifié pas mal d'éléments (les nouvelles donnes - indices, devises, indic de sentiement...etc):


1/ Je pense que le DJIA va monter entre 14400 et 14500.

2/ Je pense que le S&P va monter entre 1555 et 1565.

3/ Je pense que le CAC va monter à 3850 (+/-10 pts) après avoir consolidé en 30mn à 3740/50.

4/ Je pense que le DAX va monter entre 8040 et 8070.

5/ Je pense qu'une fois les top fait, nous allons baisser d'environ 10 à 12%.

6/ Timing: visiblement la baisse ne commencera pas cette semaine mais entre le 15 et le 20 mars. Pour se terminer vers la fin avril.

7/ Derrière, je pense qu'il y aurait une nouvelle impulsion haussière pour faire des nouveaux plus hauts annuels, environ 3% au dessus des niveaux actuels ( DJIA à 14700 / S&P à 1600 / CAC à 3930 / DAX à 8250) avant une tendance baissière assez longue et qui ramènerait les indices environ 30 à 40% plus bas.


Je ferai un chart long terme en temps voulu.

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AnasParis View Post
Après avoir vérifié pas mal d'éléments (les nouvelles donnes - indices, devises, indic de sentiement...etc):
...
4/ Je pense que le DAX va monter entre 8040 et 8070.

5/ Je pense qu'une fois les top fait, nous allons baisser d'environ 10 à 12%.

6/ Timing: visiblement la baisse ne commencera pas cette semaine mais entre le 15 et le 20 mars. Pour se terminer vers la fin avril.

7/ Derrière, je pense qu'il y aurait une nouvelle impulsion haussière pour faire des nouveaux plus hauts annuels, environ 3% au dessus des niveaux actuels ( DJIA à 14700 / S&P à 1600 / CAC à 3930 / DAX à 8250) avant une tendance baissière assez longue et qui ramènerait les indices environ 30 à 40% plus bas....

Je vois un scénario adéquat pour le DAX - monter au-dessus de 8050 (?) - et après une baisse (dès le 25 mars)
comme le chart le montre après qu'il a passé sommet du KUMO.
Une baisse forte mi-avril à 72xx est haut vraisemblable.
Chart:

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GFIs1


Last edited by GFIs1; March 6th, 2013 at 08:33 AM.
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