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Analyse CAC40 par Anas
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Analyse CAC40 par Anas

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Mise à jour:

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JP Morgan alerte ses clients ce matin (14h paris) que les indices US peuvent perdre environ 6% à court terme.

Ca correspond à la correction envisagée.

Mais attention! ils ne sont pas à 10 points près. Pour moi, il y a encore un risque de hausse demain, avant de plonger à partir de la semaine prochaine.

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US 10Y Yield à 2.80% à cause du chômage, meilleur que prévu.

C'est une zone critique qui si elle casse ça envoie assez haut entre 4 et 4.5% d'ici 1 an. Ce qui serait catastrophique pour l'économie mondiale.

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DJIA journalier:

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Donc vous avez les éléments qu'il faut.

Les top peuvent être fait demain. Baisse probable à partir de la semaine prochaine pendant 8 à 10 séances.

En terme de supports en clôture journalière:

CAC: 4060

DJIA: 15100

ES: il faut que vérifie quelque chose ce soir. Mais à priori c'est toute la zone 1650/1658.

Objectif inchangé: 5% de baisse.

Bonne soirée!

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Bonjour,

Il se passe des choses étranges sur les marchés depuis un certain temps. De quoi perdre les repères habituels.

Cette nuit par exemple, Shanghai a ouvert à -1% avant de passer à +5.6% avec la seule hausse de 10% des deux plus grosses capitalisations, avant de tout perdre et clôturer à -0.65%.

Interrogé sur ces variations bizarres, le régulateur répond que tout est normal. Mais à priori, il y a eu une manipulation car les deux valeurs qui ont flambé de 10%, ICBC et PetroChaina, sont des sociétés appartenant à l'état et il n y avait aucune actualité les concernant.

Les indices US ont clôturé au plus bas. Le DJIA est passé baissier en journalier même s'il reste au dessus de l'oblique haussière, l'ES sur son support à 1650/58.

Le CAC surperforme tous les indices majeurs depuis exactement le 1er août. Il a pris 3% quand les indices US ont perdu 3 à 3.5%. J'ai regardé l'historique cette nuit et ce n'est jamais arrivé depuis qu'il existe en 1987. Mais que s'est-il passé ce 1er août? J'en ai parlé quelques jours avant cette date. L'état a demandé à la caisse des dépôts de virer 30 milliards € de l'argent des livrets A aux banques. Je pense que c'est cet argent qui est en train d'être placé sur l'indice.

Dans ces conditions, il est clair que très peu d'analystes prennent le risque d'indiquer la tendance à venir. Ils se contentent d'écrire qu'il "faut suivre la tendance". Le genre d'expressions qui ne veut rien dire et dont l'objectif est de prendre les gens pour des cons. Ils croient que les autres voient la tendance mais font le contraire parce qu'ils adorent perdre.

Je ferai une mise à jour quand je pourrai.


Last edited by AnasParis; August 16th, 2013 at 04:55 AM.
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Tendance:

Aujourd'hui support à +/-4070 sur le CAC.

Pour casser 1650, l'ES a besoin de faire un pullback à 1670/75. C'est le bas du range dans lequel il cote depuis 1 mois (validation d'une nouvelle résistance)

Si l'ES fait ça, le CAC risque de remonter à proximité des 4140. C'est ce point haut que je craignais hier.

C'est une clôture sous 4060 en journalier qui confirmerait la correction dont l'objectif est à proximité des 3900.

@+

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ES journalier:

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ES horaire:

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DJIA journalier:

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CAC journalier:

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Bonjour,

Mise à jour vers midi.

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