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Analyse CAC40 par Anas
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Analyse CAC40 par Anas

  #1811 (permalink)
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Le 20 juin, j'ai posté ce graph:

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Avec le recul, je trouve qu'on est dedans.

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Toujours surveiller le graph d'AXA. Elle reflète les performances à venir du CAC. En tendance baissière, elle serait en dessous de 11€. A 16.30€, soit un plus haut depuis le 1er semestre 2011, elle anticipe un retour du CAC au niveau de l'époque, soit 4150/70

C'est un élement parmi d'autre.

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Pomo de 3.5 milliards à 16h20.

Minutes de la FED à 20h.

Conférence à 22h15 (?)

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En regardant les graph depuis l'open US.

Le DJIA a le potentiel d'aller à 15360/70

L'ES a le potentiel d'aller à 1650/52 (cash 1655/57)

Avant de faire la vague 4 à 15100 et 1618 (cash1623)

Le CAC est complètement paumé mais il peut encore remonter à 3860/70.

De toute façon la conso à venir n'a pas besoin de bcp de temps. -2/3% peuvent se faire en 2 séances.

Je me demande si je ne suis pas en avance d'une ou deux séances en terme de timing. C'est vrai que les indic de sentiment la nuit dernière donnaient aujourd'hui comme séance haussière encore aux US mais de peu.

Alors baisse soit demain/vendredi, soit demain/vendredi/lundi, soit vendredi/lundi.

Rebond à partir de mardi ou mercredi.

Le niveau 3720 est presque compromis mais je le garde car le CAC sousperforme. L'idéal c'est 3750. Le FCE a un support maintenant à 3770/80 en journalier. Mais rien n'empêche de baisser en intraday à 3750 et même 3720 et rebondir pour clôturer au dessus de 3770/80.

Pour ce qui est des objectifs à la hausse: on va dire pour le moment que c'est entre 4070 (double top) et 4150. Ca évoluera.

Voilà le décor. Au fur et à mesure que les heures vont passer, on en saura un peu plus.

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Mon dernier graph de la journée. Après la clôture je file chez Monoprix


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Il est impossible de remonter au delà de 3880 sans faire cette vague 4 correctrice. Comme c'est souligné dans l'analyse qu'a postée Philippe tout à l'heure, le CAC est suracheté sur les UT sous le journalier, notamment le 4h.

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Un dernier pour la route.

ES 60mn:

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AnasParis View Post
Toujours surveiller le graph d'AXA. Elle reflète les performances à venir du CAC. En tendance baissière, elle serait en dessous de 11€. A 16.30€, soit un plus haut depuis le 1er semestre 2011, elle anticipe un retour du CAC au niveau de l'époque, soit 4150/70

C'est un élement parmi d'autre.

Bonjour Anas,

Question de debutant, mais les stocks francais - ils reportent des earnings comme les stocks aux USA par trimestre avec conference calls et tout ce qui va avec (eps,...) ????

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ES - 2013/07/10.

Bonjour a tous!! J'ai fait un break ce matin du au FOMC a 14:00 EST... ES dans 1642/1648 pour l'instant. J'attends de voir 1642 et 1640....

Bon trading

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Bonsoir à tous,

Je suis en train de regarder la conférence de Bernanke . Je ferai le point vers 0h30.

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marcopolo1 View Post
Bonjour Anas,

Question de debutant, mais les stocks francais - ils reportent des earnings comme les stocks aux USA par trimestre avec conference calls et tout ce qui va avec (eps,...) ????


Bonsoir Marcopolo

Oui, nous avons les mêmes règles de fonctionnement que les indices US. Les sociétés fournissent des "guidances" annuelles et trimestrielles, il y un consensus d'analystes pour les résultats des sociétés et le jour des résultats, annoncés soit le matin avant l'open ou après la clôture, il y a des "conference-calls"...etc.
Nous avons un calendrier légèrement décalé par-rapport au calendrier US (1 semaine environ). Chez nous ça va commencer le 16 juillet avec Accor et l'Oréal et ça va se terminer fin août. La seule différence, c'est que les sociétés du CAC 40 annoncent d'abord leurs chiffres d'affaires et plus tard leurs bénéfices. Donc résultats en deux temps.

Pour en savoir plus sur le CAC, voici un lien Wiki:

CAC 40 - Wikipédia

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